Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bensville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:29PM Sunday March 29, 2020 9:05 PM EDT (01:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 737 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 737 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will try to lift northward today before a cold front moves in from the west by tonight. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday, while looking likely Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensville, MD
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location: 38.62, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 291844 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push through the area this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible. Dry condition return Monday and much of Tuesday in the wake of the cold front. Low pressure tracks to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing more rain chances. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Low-level surface wedge remains stubborn across the area. As of this writing, a cluster of low clouds resides near MRB/HGR, with clouds banked up along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge down to about CJR-NHK. Erosion has been noted, but LAMP/CONSshort fairly insistent on clearing near 19-20 UTC. Temperatures in the 70s where clearing has occurred vs 50s under the low clouds.

Recent CAMs continue to suggest a narrow corridor of opportunity where destabilization can occur behind the departing wedge. Ample shear available. The question remains how much mid-level heights have fallen. Thus far, convective initiation has been focused on western PA/NY, but simulated reflectivities suggest that there will be propagation on the southern end. Suspect there will be a few storms able to develop late this afternoon (20-22 UTC). Spatial coverage likely sparse, but given the environment any storm has supercell potential. Have decreased PoPs but added tags instead-- it will be all or nothing.

The cold front will be through the forecast area by early this evening. There will be more dewpoint advection vs thermal advection tonight. Lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A deep cyclone will be passing along the US-Canadian border Monday. There will be enough of a pressure gradient and cold advection to keep the atmosphere fairly well mixed. But with ample sunshine temperatures should be able to reach the 60s to near 70s.

Upper-level shortwave energy will be ejecting out of the southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. on Tuesday. Attendant surface low pressure will be maturing over the southeast throughout the day as it tracks towards the east. Latest global guidance keeps the surface low well to the south of our area. However, the northern shield of precipitation looks likely to have an impact across central VA. Best chance of precipitation looks to be Tuesday night into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Additionally, there will be cool enough air aloft for some potential wintry precipitation in the higher elevations of the central VA Blue Ridge and the lower Potomac Highlands of western VA. Of course, if the track of this low shifts even slightly north, could see more precipitation across those region, and perhaps even a farther northward extent of precip. Guidance is in pretty good agreement at this point though. Temperatures will only reach the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. With flow out of the east to east-northeast on Wednesday, would expect low clouds/drizzle around after the low departs early in the day. Northerly flow will then quickly return around midday or so, as high pressure begins to build in out of the northwest, which should scour out the low clouds/drizzle by early afternoon. High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s Wednesday.

High pressure then slides by to the north Thursday and Friday, with dry and seasonable conditions expected, with highs in the low to mid 60s each day. Thursday will be slightly cooler though, as the high will be more directly overhead.

A cold front will then push through on Saturday, bringing the next chance for some rain. At this point, looks like this will be fairly light, as the surface low and upper-level energy pass by well to the north. Still plenty of time for that to change though, so will be something to keep track of.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low clouds have been stubborn across the terminals. Guidance has been fairly insistent that improvement will come by 19-20 UTC. Slow erosion evident on satellite loop.

Ingredients available for thunderstorms to develop if clouds do part. And if they do form, they have the potential to be strong. Have inserted a couple hour window (21-23 UTC) during the most likely timeframe, without mentioning individual threats. Confidence in direct impact low as areal coverage likely to be sparse.

In the wake of the cold front, VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Monday. Winds likely to reach 20 kt with daytime mixing on Monday.

Light NW flow early Tuesday will gradually turn to easterly by Tuesday evening, as low pressure tracks well to our south. This will still likely result in low clouds/drizzle Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning, where sub-VFR conditions will continue likely through midday. CHO stands the best chance for visibility reducing rainfall, but still thinking heaviest precipitation stays farther south.

VFR returns Wednesday afternoon through Friday, as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest.

MARINE. Winds mostly light at this time. There may be a thunderstorm or two late this afternoon/early this evening. It is unclear whether strong winds will make it to the waters edge, but it is possible, as is hail.

Northwest flow will commence tonight, and may be gusty with better momentum transfer on Monday. Have not issued Small Craft Advisories yet based on water temperatures.

Strengthening low pressure will pass by well to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will lead to gusty easterly winds Tuesday night, gradually turning northerly and lightening up by Wednesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are likely starting late Tuesday night through Wednesday. The strongest winds over our forecast area will be in the central Chesapeake Bay. Can't rule out a period of Gale force gusts Wednesday morning either, so will have to monitor that as we get closer to the event.

SCA could extend into Thursday thanks to northerly channeling as the high pressure builds in from the northwest. But SCA conditions should end Thursday night and into Friday, as high pressure builds more directly overhead.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . HTS/CJL LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . HTS/CJL MARINE . HTS/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 18 mi48 min ENE 4.1 G 11 62°F 56°F1008.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 19 mi96 min ESE 2.9 1007 hPa
NCDV2 21 mi54 min SE 8 G 8.9 61°F 58°F1007.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi48 min S 7 G 8 1008.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi48 min ESE 6 G 6 55°F 53°F1007.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 36 mi66 min N 7 G 8 53°F 51°F1009.4 hPa (-0.4)53°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi54 min 55°F 1008.6 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi48 min 52°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi48 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi48 min NNE 8 G 8.9 55°F 1009.4 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi66 min N 7 G 9.9 54°F 1009.3 hPa (+0.9)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi48 min Calm G 1 61°F 54°F1007.9 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA12 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair65°F57°F75%1008 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD16 mi70 minNE 510.00 miFair58°F53°F85%1008.8 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA17 mi74 minNE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F55°F75%1008.1 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA18 mi70 minVar 39.00 miA Few Clouds66°F0°F%1007.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE4S5SW6SW4CalmSE5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E3CalmE3CalmCalmNE3E3NE4CalmNE3
2 days agoS3S5SE5S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmNW5NW6N7NW9NW3N3NW4CalmCalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Riverview, Maryland
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Riverview
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.31.81.30.80.40.30.50.91.62.32.82.92.62.21.61.10.70.40.40.511.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Washington, Maryland
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Fort Washington
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.21.81.30.80.40.30.50.91.52.22.72.72.52.11.61.10.70.40.40.511.62.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.