Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bensville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 1:09 AM EDT (05:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 3:40AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1037 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers late this evening, then a chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the waters Tuesday as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. A secondary cold front will sweep across the waters on Thursday, with strong canadian high pressure building into the high plains and shifting eastward into our region for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible for portions of the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensville, MD
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location: 38.62, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290126 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move very slowly through the area Tuesday through Wednesday followed by a second reinforcing cold front early Friday. High pressure will build over the region at the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

Skies remain partly clouds with thick clouds along the Blue Ridge Mountains and westward. A few showers move through parts of our area but little to no accumulations were reported. Cloud cover is expected increase through this evening as the front approaches from the west. It looks like rain shouldn't start to affect our area until daybreak Tuesday morning.

Previous.. In the wake of a shortwave trough currently moving off the New Jersey coast, broad subsidence has eroded much of the earlier cloud cover. Diurnal heating has allowed scattered altocumulus fields to spawn with mid-afternoon temperatures rising into the upper 70s. While most locations will remain dry, a few isolated showers are possible over the higher terrain of eastern West Virginia. A lack of discernible forcing should keep any shower short lived.

With dew points well into the mid to upper 60s, the humid air mass will keep mild temperatures around for the evening and overnight hours. The Washington D.C. and Baltimore metro areas could even see spotty 70 degree overnight lows. Given the amount of ground moisture in place, some patchy fog may develop in the more fog prone mountain river valley locales.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. On Tuesday morning, a longwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Great Lakes down to the central Gulf Coast. Height falls accompanying this trough will slide a cold front eastward increasing the chances of showers by mid-day Tuesday. While model spread continues, the 12Z guidance has brought a more consolidated solution. An upper low expected to pinch off over the lower Tennessee Valley and eject toward the lower Mid- Atlantic will instead progressively move through. Rather, the shortwave is forecast to race through late Tuesday/early Wednesday which spawns a frontal wave which crosses the Delmarva coast Wednesday morning. Areas of southern Maryland should be in closest proximity to this wave of low pressure and enhanced moisture flux advection. Precipitable waters are forecast to spike into the 1.50 to 1.75 inch range which is over the 95th percentile for late September. High-resolution models paint up to 2 inches of rainfall around this region. While a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, any activity should be more isolated in nature.

A separate axis of locally heavier rainfall may occur over the Potomac Highlands into the southern/central Shenandoah Valley. A bulk of this occurs as the upper trough moves overhead late Tuesday night and into the overnight hours. The HREF solution paints a 1 to 2 inch swath of rainfall which is fairly consistent with other high-resolution guidance. The remainder of the region can expect 0.50 to 1.00 inches as low pressure passes to the east and orographic enhance amounts to the west.

As the system has been trending quicker, much of Wednesday should prove to be a drier day. Lingering showers will continue for the first half of the day before conditions begin to improve. Post-frontal cold advection should bring high temperatures down quite a bit with numbers topping out in the mid/upper 60s, with 50s in the mountains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Broad upper troughing looks to dominate over much of the eastern U.S. Thursday and through the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds eastward from the High Plains and into our region. A dry cold front will push through the area on Thursday, as the aforementioned high migrates eastward, promoting northwesterly flow and cold air advection in the wake of the front. As a result, mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures will win out through the weekend. Highs on Thursday will range in the 60s to low 70s, while favoring the low to middle 60s Friday through Sunday. With the upper trough entrenched over the east and spokes of shortwave energy traversing overhead, won't be completely sunny with a fair share of clouds each day. Lows will range below normal as well, with upper 30s to upper 40s most likely. Will flirt with frost/freeze conditions in the higher elevations as well, so will need to monitor this potential.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

A few showers moved through our terminals along the I-95 corridor but no restrictions were reported. I expect a lull in showers over the next few hours but then a more focused line of showers will move into all terminals tomorrow morning.

Previous Discussion .

A slight chance of showers across the higher terrain of eastern West Virginia this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. Increasing overnight clouds may lower ceilings into MVFR to IFR visual flight rules. As a cold front moves through on Tuesday, sub-VFR conditions are likely in any showers. By Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, rainfall may become heavier which includes a couple isolated thunderstorms. Some flight restrictions will be possible during the period. Showers should gradually taper off beyond Wednesday 12Z with conditions improving.

Light westerly winds will shift northwest behind a dry frontal passage late Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build west of the terminals through Friday, promoting northwesterly winds and VFR conditions.

MARINE. Periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue into the early evening across the Chesapeake Bay waters. After a brief lull, a return of such conditions is expected by Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning given showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy conditions accompanying the frontal passage on Wednesday may lead to further Small Craft Advisories.

A cold front will push through the waters late Thursday into Thursday night, with the potential for occasional SCA gusts during this time for a portion of the waters. High pressure will build well west of the marine district through Friday night, delivering a northwesterly breeze which may yield SCA gusts Friday night under a cold air advection regime.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly breezes have ushered in rising anomalies, which brings several of our tidal sites to action stage the next few high tide cycles. Current forecast reflects minor flooding being a possibility at Annapolis with the high tide cycle tonight. Anomalies likely to remain elevated through the day on Tuesday with continued southerly breezes, thus the threat for minor tidal flooding will persist. Winds will turn northwesterly late Tuesday and Tuesday night as cold front moves into the area, which should help lower water levels.

EQUIPMENT. The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D outage, which began on September 20, 2020, will continue and remain out of service until on or about October 16, 2020.

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center (ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed on or about October 16, 2020.

During the downtime, adjacent supporting NWS radars include: Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).

For a radar mosaic loop for the region:

https:/radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php

Further updates about the situation will be issued as information becomes available. Thank you for your understanding during this extended outage.

Point of Contact:

Christopher Strong email: Christopher.Strong@noaa.gov office: 703-996-2223

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>534- 537>543.

SYNOPSIS . BRO NEAR TERM . BRO/JMG SHORT TERM . BRO LONG TERM . BKF AVIATION . BKF/BRO/JMG MARINE . BKF/BRO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 18 mi52 min S 7 G 8.9 73°F 1011.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 19 mi100 min SSE 4.1 1011 hPa
NCDV2 21 mi52 min S 6 G 8
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi28 min S 9.7 G 12 71°F 71°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi52 min S 11 G 14 1012.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi52 min S 11 G 13 71°F 1011.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 36 mi70 min SSE 19 G 21 72°F 72°F1012.4 hPa (+0.5)72°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi52 min SSE 5.1 G 12 72°F 1011.2 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi52 min 72°F 70°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi52 min S 11 G 13
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi52 min S 17 G 19 74°F 1010.9 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi52 min S 14 G 19 74°F 1011 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi52 min SSE 8 G 11 71°F 1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA12 mi74 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F67°F85%1011.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD16 mi74 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F66°F86%1012 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA17 mi78 minS 910.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1011.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA18 mi74 minSSE 119.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F87%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SW5S7S8S3S5S6S7S4SE5CalmSE3CalmSE7S5SE7SE6SE6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N3N3NW5NW3NW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Riverview, Maryland
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Riverview
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:24 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.51.11.72.32.72.92.72.31.71.20.80.30.30.71.322.52.82.72.31.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Washington, Maryland
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Fort Washington
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:24 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.511.72.22.62.82.62.21.71.20.70.30.30.71.31.92.42.72.62.21.71.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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