Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:26PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:05 AM EDT (05:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1038 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1038 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain south and west of the waters through tonight. The boundary will lift northward as a warm front early Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Sunday night. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be required Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 290114 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 914 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move slowly northward through the Mid-Atlantic tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, a strong surface low in the central Plains will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes on Sunday, with secondary low development near the East Coast. A cold front will sweep through the region Sunday night, with a reinforcing front moving through on Monday. Another surface low will move through the Southeast on Tuesday and off the Carolina coast by Wednesday. High pressure will build into the Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system may affect the region Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Tonight . As of 9 PM a band of primarily stratiform rain (with one convective element just south of Philly) was moving through the central third of the fcst area. This precip (which is largely the remnants of earlier upstream convection) is largely being sustained by ascent ahead of a westerly shortwave and ascent along the 925mb FGEN zone. Once this precipitation moves offshore in the next 1-2 hours, rainfall will be light and intermittent through the remainder of the night, with the best chances being in the warm advection/upslope regime in the Poconos/NW NJ.

Otherwise it will be a dreary night with some combination of drizzle, fog, and low stratus likely as low-lvl moisture remains pinned near the surface under an increasing robust low-lvl inversion. Given usual uncertainties in the cool sector BL (e.g. whether there is sufficient vertical mixing and moisture depth to support drizzle/stratus vs fog) don't have confidence on the dense fog potential. For now left mostly patchy fog in the grids, but did add some potential for dense fog over the southern part of the area where hi-res guidance favors it. Temps and dewpoints should largely flatline through the night given the robust cloud cover.

Sunday (Previous discussion):

The main forecast challenge for Sunday is the ultimate positioning of the warm front, with models very likely too aggressive with its northward push. A strong surface low will begin to weaken as it becomes vertically stacked over the Great Lakes region. A cold front will extend eastward then southward from the low and surge toward the area during the day as a strong midlevel jet streak races northeastward to the Northeast. As a result, the warm front should lift northward during the day, but I suspect the ageostrophic contribution to the onshore flow via upslope is being underplayed. Confidence is high enough to keep the northern CWA quite chilly tomorrow (around or below 50), whereas southern Delmarva will approach 80. Of course, temperatures in between are the tricky part and will ultimately depend on very short-term trends/guidance. In other words, expect the temperature forecast to be susceptible to considerable error in portions of the CWA. To illustrate, the latest MET MOS for PHL is 57 for tomorrow, and the latest MAV MOS projects 70. Even worse for GED: 66 versus 84. Yikes. For now, the forecast is generally weighted toward the colder NAM- based guidance but with some input from statistical guidance as well.

The wind profile in the region tomorrow will be quite impressive, with 0-6 km bulk wind difference exceeding 60 kt and helicity approaching 300 J/kg (with considerable curvature in the low-level winds), especially near the warm front. Convection-allowing models depict isolated to widely scattered storms developing near the front as it advances toward the area late in the day. With instability increasing in the warm sector (e.g., NAM Nest showing SBCAPE exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg), these storms may become severe, especially if updrafts are able to sustain themselves. However, the overall sparse coverage in guidance suggests this threat is conditional. Will be watching this potential closely, to be sure.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Any lingering convection on Sunday evening will move offshore overnight as the cold front sweeps off the coast. However, a large midlevel vortex will struggle to move eastward from the Great Lakes on Sunday evening. The northern portions of the CWA may be close enough to the stronger ascent downstream of the vortex to see remnant showers through Monday night. The best chance for this appears to be Monday afternoon, when the vortex will make its closest approach to the area. Despite a cold front moving through the region on Sunday night, the colder air will be upstream of a reinforcing front moving through the area Monday afternoon/evening. As a result, it will be mild on Monday, with highs near/above 60 southeast of the Poconos. Lows Monday night and highs on Tuesday will be about 10 degrees colder than the previous day's readings.

The next system of interest is a southern-stream perturbation moving through the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Surface low pressure will organize on the Carolina coast Tuesday night, with a precipitation shield extending northward from the low into at least the central Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic models still differ considerably on extent of coverage into the CWA, with the GFS looking awfully dry versus the CMC, and the ECMWF somewhere in between. Took a consensus approach with PoPs for now, which leaves values in the slight-chance to chance range generally near/south of the I-76 corridor. The heaviest precipitation will be south of the area, with light amounts expected (for now) in our area. If the track of the low trends northward, however, heavier rainfall can be expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Temperatures will trend cooler on Wednesday as the region lies upstream of the departing surface low. However, lingering rain should exit the area fairly quickly. There may be some lingering showers in the northwest CWA owing to glancing ascent from a weak perturbation digging southeast from the Saint Lawrence Valley. Otherwise, the Wednesday night and Thursday period will likely be dry as high pressure briefly builds into the region.

The next system will likely affect the area Friday or Saturday, though timing differences remain with the deterministic models. Notably, the ECMWF and GFS appeared to converge somewhat from previous runs, though frontal passage differences are still rather high (6-12+ hour variations). Broad-brushed slight- chance to low-chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday for now until better agreement is observed.

Temperatures Thursday through Saturday should be close to seasonal averages.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . IFR early this evening should trend to LIFR overnight given CAD pattern. Light rain/drizzle and fog will be possible overnight. Winds will be mostly East or Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday . Very low CIGS/VSBYS with LIFR or IFR is expected across the region for much of the morning. Improvement may arrive late morning/early afternoon from the SW as the warm front lifts thru. Improvement back to VFR at PHL is possible, but far from certain. If the fronts lifts through and sunshine returns, there is also the possibility of tstm development late in the afternoon. Mostly E to NE winds much of he day, but winds will switch around to S or SW if the front moves across the area, again, most likely during the afternoon.

Outlook.

Sunday night . Any lingering convection Sunday evening should quickly move offshore, with conditions primarily VFR. Light northwest or west winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday . VFR with west to northwest winds 5 to 15 kt with higher gusts. High confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday . Primarily VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt Monday night becoming northeast or even east up to 10 kt on Tuesday. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Sub-VFR possible with a chance of rain, especially south of PHL. Northeast winds 5 to 15 kt becoming north late Wednesday afternoon. Low confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Mainly VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE.

900 pm update: Added a dense fog advisory for the southern Atlantic zones and DE Bay until 7 AM based on deteriorating visibilities near the coast. It is possible this may need to be extended spatially or temporally based on overnight trends.

Previous discussion:

Farther north, winds will increase this afternoon, with seas approaching 5 feet this evening. Expect a period of seas around 5 feet or so through tomorrow before seas subside Sunday night.

Perhaps the bigger threat for marine interests is fog potential tonight. A favorable setup of onshore flow and fairly high dew points should allow areas of fog to develop on the waters overnight. Fog may become dense enough for the issuance of an advisory and may occur through most of the overnight into Sunday morning.

Finally, isolated storms this afternoon may produce small hail and erratic wind gusts in their proximity. Additional storms are possible late Sunday afternoon, with a higher likelihood for strong wind gusts.

Outlook.

Sunday night through Tuesday evening . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A slight chance of storms Sunday evening.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night . Winds are expected to increase from the east or northeast up to 30 kt (especially off the Delaware Atlantic coast) with seas building to 5 to 7 feet. A chance of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Thursday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>452. Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431- 453>455.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS/Carr Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/Carr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi48 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 55°F1013.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi156 min N 15 G 17 1014.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi66 min N 5.1 G 6 49°F 50°F1015 hPa (-1.5)49°F
CPVM2 28 mi48 min 49°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi48 min NE 5.1 G 7 1013.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi48 min 1013.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 8 51°F 53°F1013.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi156 min NNE 4.1 1014 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi54 min SSE 5.1 G 8 49°F 51°F1013.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi48 min NE 4.1 G 5.1
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi48 min Calm G 1 1014.1 hPa
FSNM2 45 mi66 min Calm G 1 49°F 1013.8 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi81 minNNE 51.50 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1014.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi62 minNE 31.50 miFog/Mist51°F49°F95%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SE5CalmSE5
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2 days agoCalmN5N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW56S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:42 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:03 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.20.40.71.11.51.81.81.71.41.10.80.60.50.40.50.60.91.11.21.210.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:36 PM EDT     0.25 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.60.60.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.20.20.20-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.