Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 9:39 PM EDT (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:52AMMoonset 2:55PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 758 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 758 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over new england will shift offshore tonight into Thursday. A developing warm front will lift from the central appalachian mountains into pennsylvania by Friday. A weakening cold front will drop in from the lower great lakes Friday night, then stall and dissipate over the middle atlantic this weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed Thursday through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 152319 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 719 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide from New England to the western Atlantic through the end of the week. A warm front will lift through the region Thursday night, followed by a rather weak cold front on Friday. Bermuda high pressure becomes established for the weekend. Another cold front will cross the region on Monday, potentially stalling nearby through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM, the isolated showers have just about dissipated near and south/west of Philadelphia as the associated outflow combined with the well inland sea breeze is stabilizing things in their wake. Other than a rather isolated shower initiating in the lingering cumulus field in portions of eastern PA the next hour or so, the night is expected to be dry. Otherwise, some lower clouds lingering in far southeastern NJ into DE and this should either thin out for a time or eventually expand and turn into a more widespread stratus deck overnight (fog not anticipated to be an issue). Given the setup, we are anticipating a stratus deck to develop and overspread much of the area later tonight. It will be a muggy night especially across southern half of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. With a fair amount of cloud cover and an east to southeast flow, Thursday will likely be the coolest day of the next seven. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid 80s, a bit cooler right at the coast.

Overall, Thursday looks dry. A warm front will approach the region from the southwest Thursday night. As a result, a few showers could sneak in here before the day ends across our western zones.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main concern for the long term portion of the forecast is mainly the upcoming heat and humidity.

Aloft, generally zonal flow with some slight ridging at time. Some troughing may start to occur early next week but no big changes are noted in the flow pattern.

At the surface, high pressure will slide south of New England and settle over the western Atlantic through the rest of the period. A warm front will lift north through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a cold front on Friday, which looks to weaken and wash out on Saturday. The high over the Atlantic takes control through the weekend. Another trough/front will start to drop down through the region on sometime on Monday into Tuesday. The front may stall nearby and keep us unsettled through the middle of the week.

Thursday night is fairly benign overall as a warm front starts to lift through the region. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front as it pushes northward. The flow will turn more southerly behind the front and we should have an increase of moisture through the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front enters the region from the west and gradually pushes through the area. It isn't particularly fast and looks to weaken as it makes its way to the coast. Some guidance washes it our as it reaches the coast while other guidance hangs onto it briefly offshore. End result is that the feature is not that strong and dissipates near our forecast area as the surface high really strengthens over the Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front and with PWATs remaining around 1.75-2.00+", heavy rain may become an issue and we will need to monitor for any flooding concerns.

There is not any really cool air behind the cold front so we never really lose the influx of hot air from the south to southwest, which will set us up for warming temps through the weekend.

With the high gaining strength, the southwest flow aloft will also strengthen. Temps will rise on Friday to near 90, expect lower 90s on Saturday, and then a rise to the mid to near upper 90s on Sunday and Monday, where the models show agreement on 850mb temps around 20- 21C both days. What adds insult to injury is the fact that the south to southwest surface flow keeps the moisture levels high and that means dewpoints will rise back into the lower 70s. So hot and humid will be the story for the start of the new week with heat index values rising and being between 100-110 across the forecast area. It seems likely that some form of heat headlines will be needed for the start of the week. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend.

The next front arrives around Monday, which may impact the highs that day depending on the timing. The front looks to hold off until later in the day which would give more confidence to the higher side of guidance, so we continue to favor that side of the spectrum. Another item of note is that while the front may be a good forcing mechanism for storms, it lacks sufficient cool air behind it to fully break the heat and Tuesday could end up being part of the potential excessive heat wave. The front might not clear the area and ends up waffling across our region so we could potentially remain stormy and hot and humid across at least portions of the forecast area through the middle of the week.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR, with clouds increasing and lowering with MVFR ceilings developing in the 06-10z time frame. Southeast winds 5-10 knots diminishing to less than 5 knots or light and variable. Moderate confidence; low confidence regarding any IFR ceiling development.

Thursday . MVFR ceilings improve to VFR by early afternoon. Southeast winds increasing to 8-12 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Thursday night . Patchy fog/stratus or some showers with sub-VFR conditions possible near RDG and ABE, otherwise mostly VFR. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming more southerly overnight. Low confidence on timing of the lower conditions.

Friday through Friday night . Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog with sub-VFR conditions may develop overnight. South- southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable overnight. Generally moderate confidence with low confidence on fog.

Saturday through Saturday night . Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Low to moderate confidence.

Sunday through Monday . MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. Tonight . Sub-SCA conditions expected. East to southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas mainly 3 ft.

Thursday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas mainly 3 ft.

Outlook . Thursday night through Monday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Monday. Southeast winds Thursday night becoming south-southwest for the remainder of the period. Wind speeds generally 10 to 15 knots through the day with gusts around 20 knots. Seas mainly around 2 to 3 ft on the ocean.

Rip Currents . Winds will remain onshore through Thursday. Wind speeds should increase a bit on Thursday over today. As a result, the risk may increase to moderate levels. But at this time, the forecast will maintain a low risk.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Philadelphia, PA (KIH28) is currently off the air. Technicians have been notified, but a return to service is unknown at this time.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Gorse/Meola Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Kruzdlo Long Term . Meola Aviation . Gorse/Meola Marine . Kruzdlo/Meola Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi70 min 87°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi34 min Calm G 0 80°F 84°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi40 min E 18 G 20 78°F 83°F1021.4 hPa (+0.0)72°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi70 min 87°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi70 min 85°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi70 min 86°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi130 min E 1 1019 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi70 min 86°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi45 minESE 1010.00 miFair77°F69°F79%1021.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi45 minE 9 G 1510.00 miClear75°F69°F83%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN34CalmS4CalmCalm4SE8E9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N7N6N7NW8NW94
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2 days agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3W4CalmNW6N7NW7NW63N8N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:55 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.22.11.91.61.41.21.111.11.31.41.51.41.210.80.60.50.50.71.11.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:39 AM EDT     0.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:48 PM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.20.20.10-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.40.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.