Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 639 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Drizzle likely this morning. Rain.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the night.
ANZ500 639 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak low pressure developing along the warm front east of us will lift northward across the mid-atlantic on Monday. Another low pressure system moving into the great lakes will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday evening into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090825 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 325 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front lifts north through the Northeast today as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. The low passes north of the area on Tuesday, and a cold front passes through the region Tuesday night. The front then becomes nearly stationary along the coast. Low pressure will develop on that front and will affect the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds in from the west on Thursday and moves offshore on Friday. Low pressure affects the Northeast next weekend, followed by high pressure for the start of the following week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Multiple rounds of rain are expected through today as several short wave/vorticity impulses will be lifting across the area today as a coastal front moves across the area as well.

A coastal front is located along the Mid Atlantic coast from New Jersey southward to the Carolinas. This front will remain in place across the Mid Atlantic coast through today, before beginning to wash out later this afternoon as an area of low pressure lifts to our north along this boundary. Meanwhile, several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area as well today. The first is moving across the area this morning, bringing with it enhanced lift which is leading to increasing drizzle and rain. This rain will spread northward through the morning hours, before a temporary break occurs for some area later this morning into the early afternoon. This break will be brief as another short wave/vorticity impulse will be moving across the area this afternoon. This second impulse will bring additional enhanced lift, creating more widespread rainfall across the area. PW values will increase to 1.00-1.25 inches, which could help lead to some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Daytime rainfall amounts will be mostly 0.50-1.00 inches, with some locally heavier amounts possible, which could lead to some ponding on roadways and poor drainage type flooding.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. The coastal front will be out of the area by this evening, however, additional short waves/vorticity impulses are expected overnight. The first will occur during the first half of the night. This impulse will have more moisture associated with it, so higher chances of rainfall are expected for the first half of the night. By the second half of the night, the next short wave is not expected to have as much moisture associated with it, so there will be decreasing rainfall chances overnight. There will remain PW values of 1.00-1.25 inches, so some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible this evening. Rainfall amounts this evening into the overnight will be mostly 0.25-0.50 inches or less.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The start of the day Tuesday will find the region in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures will be well above normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. As the front approaches, rain develops in the afternoon, and continues into Tuesday night as the cold front works its way through the region. Rain should mix with and change to snow in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey late Tuesday night through Wednesday, and then rain and/or snow will gradually taper off during the day Wednesday for southeast Pennsylvania, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva. CAA will be underway on Wednesday, and highs will be some 20-25 degrees colder than Tuesday, topping off in the 30s to low 40s. Best chances for accumulating snow will be in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, but lighter amounts are possible in southeast Pennsylvania and the rest of New Jersey. Will have to see how the arrival of the cold air lines up with the timing of the precip.

Strong 1040 mb high pressure over the Northern Plains then builds through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, and will be over the region on Thursday. A bitterly cold airmass overspreads the region with lows Wednesday night in the teens and 20s, and highs on Thursday in the 20s in the southern Poconos, and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.

That high moves into the Gulf of Maine and towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, and east to southeast flow develops behind the departing high. Temperatures warm back up to near and slightly above normal levels on Friday.

Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the southeast U.S. and will begin to lift north. A warm front will develop out ahead of that low and will lift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the day Friday. Although Friday starts out dry, some light precip may develop late in the day. It should be warm enough for mostly rain, but there may be some frozen precip up north.

GFS and ECMWF are dry, but the CMC brings precip north Friday afternoon. Think slight chance/low chance PoPs will cover this for now.

Rain likely Friday night and Saturday as low pressure lifts north along the coast. Do have to watch for potential for freezing rain Friday night in the southern Poconos, as it may take some time for the lowest levels of the atmosphere to warm above normal. By Saturday, expecting rain throughout. Should be warm with highs in the 50s.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast from there. Conditions should dry out on Sunday, but some weak upper shortwaves could keep unsettled weather in the forecast into the start of the following week.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Those areas who have not lowered to IFR will do so through the rest of the early morning hours. Then IFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day, with some areas lowering to LIFR. A couple of periods of rainfall will be possible across the TAF sites. The first is moving this morning, then a temporary break will be possible late this morning into the early afternoon, before more rainfall moves in for the remainder of the afternoon. IFR conditions will remain regardless of the rainfall. LLWS will also be a concern today across the TAF sites.

Variable winds will be in place across much of the area through the morning hours, before settling into a south to southeast direction by this afternoon. Winds will increase to 5-10 knots once the southerly wind begins.

There will also be low-level wind shear for many areas today as winds above the surface increase and surface winds remain light.

--High confidence in IFR conditions and rainfall. Lower confidence in how low conditions will drop.

Tonight . IFR conditions will continue through the evening hours and into the first half of the night as rainfall continues to move northward across the area. However, as the rain moves to our north, conditions may lift to MVFR for a time later in the night.

Winds will increase out of the south to southwest this evening and overnight, and may begin gusting 15-20 knots for some areas. Where areas are not gusting, low-level wind shear may continue into this evening.

--Moderate confidence in conditions improving overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . Brief VFR conditions Tuesday morning, otherwise MVFR/IFR Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwest winds abruptly shifting to the northwest Tuesday afternoon 10 to 15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt especially Tuesday afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly changing to snow at KRDG/KABE before ending. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR in the afternoon. West winds near 10 kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Generally VFR. Light northeasterly winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on Friday. Conditions may begin to lower Friday afternoon.

MARINE. Today-tonight . A Small Craft Advisory continues for the Atlantic coastal waters for today and tonight as winds will increase to 20-25 knots, with gusts of 30 knots. Winds above the surface increase even more, 40-45 knots at a few hundred feet, however, there should be enough of an inversion to prevent these winds from mixing down to the surface. If they do end up increasing, we may end up having to issue a short fused Gale Warning.

OUTLOOK .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . SCA extended through Tuesday for the ocean waters, and SCA conditions may continue through Tuesday night. SW winds will shift to the NW in the afternoon, and gusts up to 30 kt possible. Tuesday night, winds and seas should gradually diminish below SCA criteria.

Wednesday . Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some westerly gusts to 25 kt are possible.

Thursday . Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly- northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday . Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting 15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ451>455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . MPS Aviation . MPS/Robertson Marine . MPS/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi55 min W 6 G 8 49°F 44°F1019.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi25 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 1021 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi19 min W 8 G 8 44°F 45°F1020.3 hPa (-1.4)44°F
44063 - Annapolis 29 mi25 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 45°F1019.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi55 min ESE 8 G 8.9 45°F 44°F1019.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi49 min 45°F 1019.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi49 min W 2.9 G 4.1 46°F 47°F1019.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi109 min NW 1 44°F 1020 hPa44°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi49 min NW 5.1 G 7 43°F 44°F1019.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi49 min WNW 5.1 G 6
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi25 min 46°F 47°F955.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi49 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 43°F 1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi24 minW 310.00 mi48°F48°F100%1019.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi29 minW 30.38 miFog48°F46°F94%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE6SE3SE9SE7
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5SE10S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN43N6E4SE7SE8
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NW10NW7N6N4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.110.80.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.40.91.31.51.61.51.31.10.80.50.30.30.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     0.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:41 PM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.60.70.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.3-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.