Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trappe, MD
May 8, 2024 12:05 PM EDT (16:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 5:01 AM Moonset 8:10 PM |
ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1038 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers late this morning.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri - NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1038 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. Precipitation chances decrease into the weekend as high pressure nears the region. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. Precipitation chances decrease into the weekend as high pressure nears the region. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 081406 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1006 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure tracks by to our north early this morning.
This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with additional upper level disturbances tracking through the area this weekend. A warmer, drier pattern looks to return early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Morning convection has now moved offshore. Lingering clouds will diminish by the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise quite a bit. Highs will be the warmest of the week, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s well north and west to the mid to upper 80s south away from the cooler waters. It will become breezy with southwest to west winds gusting 20-25 mph.
Earlier it had looked like we could see some additional isolated storms in the afternoon but at this point it looks quite dry through the column so we keep afternoon POPs below 15 percent.
That said, if something did manage to form it could produce gusty winds given inverted-V soundings.
As we head into tonight, initial area of low pressure continues moving east off the coast of New England and out to sea. This will push a weak cold front offshore through the evening. Meanwhile by the overnight period the next wave of low pressure will be approaching as it moves eastward through the midwestern states and this will start to push the front back to the north as a warm front.
Clouds will once again be on the increase by the late overnight and it's possible we could see some showers start to enter the region towards dawn, however the trend has been slower with these arriving later. Expect lows ranging from the 50s north to the low 60s south.
Thursday is still shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing additional rounds of showers and storms. What's worth noting though is that the model guidance continues to trend farther south with the track of this system...likely tracking the low east through Delmarva or perhaps even slightly to the south of here. This should tend to limit the threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon to Delmarva and perhaps extreme SE PA and southern NJ. Confidence on exactly where this threat sets up though is still not that high as there could be further changes to the track of the low. If it keeps trending farther south, this could keep the severe weather threat even south of Delmarva while a trend back to the north would allow the warm front to get farther north into PA and NJ leading to a more expansive severe threat. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has Delmarva in a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for Thursday with a narrow area of a MARGINAL risk north of here clipping SE PA and southern NJ. One thing to point out though is that both speed and directional shear will be quite strong near the track of the low so if there is enough instability that makes it into the area, all threats will be on the table...Damaging winds, large hail, and even the potential for a tornado or two. The clouds and showers/storms will keep it cooler for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night (PoPs mainly 55-65 percent) although any severe weather threat should diminish through the nighttime hours with the loss of daytime heating. Lows generally in the low 50s.
On Friday, our earlier low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 60 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Shower chances continue into Friday night but should gradually diminish as the upper level trough pushes through later overnight. Lows mainly in the mid-upper 40s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives Saturday night into Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 30 to 50 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.
Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer (highs mainly in the upper 70s) and drier (PoPs generally less than 25 percent) as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...Lingering low ceilings across the I-95 corridor this morning in the wake of showers and storms from the morning.
Expecting terminals to improve to VFR by late morning with the gradual increase of SW to west winds 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...Mainly VFR with winds becoming light and variable.
Thursday...Additional rounds of shower/storms likely along with lowering cigs and visbys down at least MVFR at times. Winds generally east around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub- VFR conditions.
MARINE
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the day today but expect some fog over the waters through the first part of this morning...especially off the coast of southern NJ and Delaware. The fog should diminish by later in the morning as some showers move over the waters.
It will be quiet on the waters tonight but then expect more rounds of showers with some storms as well during the day Thursday as the next low approaches. East winds increase through the day to around 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots by late day. Seas should generally be around 3 feet through today and Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Overall, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through the period but winds and seas may briefly increase to around 20-25 knots and 4-5 feet, most likely later in the day on Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week with the new moon on Tuesday evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the high tide cycle tonight. Therefore, another Coastal Flood Advisory is in place for these areas as a result. Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding remain possible with the evening/overnight high tides through the end of the week.
Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1006 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure tracks by to our north early this morning.
This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with additional upper level disturbances tracking through the area this weekend. A warmer, drier pattern looks to return early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Morning convection has now moved offshore. Lingering clouds will diminish by the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise quite a bit. Highs will be the warmest of the week, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s well north and west to the mid to upper 80s south away from the cooler waters. It will become breezy with southwest to west winds gusting 20-25 mph.
Earlier it had looked like we could see some additional isolated storms in the afternoon but at this point it looks quite dry through the column so we keep afternoon POPs below 15 percent.
That said, if something did manage to form it could produce gusty winds given inverted-V soundings.
As we head into tonight, initial area of low pressure continues moving east off the coast of New England and out to sea. This will push a weak cold front offshore through the evening. Meanwhile by the overnight period the next wave of low pressure will be approaching as it moves eastward through the midwestern states and this will start to push the front back to the north as a warm front.
Clouds will once again be on the increase by the late overnight and it's possible we could see some showers start to enter the region towards dawn, however the trend has been slower with these arriving later. Expect lows ranging from the 50s north to the low 60s south.
Thursday is still shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing additional rounds of showers and storms. What's worth noting though is that the model guidance continues to trend farther south with the track of this system...likely tracking the low east through Delmarva or perhaps even slightly to the south of here. This should tend to limit the threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon to Delmarva and perhaps extreme SE PA and southern NJ. Confidence on exactly where this threat sets up though is still not that high as there could be further changes to the track of the low. If it keeps trending farther south, this could keep the severe weather threat even south of Delmarva while a trend back to the north would allow the warm front to get farther north into PA and NJ leading to a more expansive severe threat. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has Delmarva in a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for Thursday with a narrow area of a MARGINAL risk north of here clipping SE PA and southern NJ. One thing to point out though is that both speed and directional shear will be quite strong near the track of the low so if there is enough instability that makes it into the area, all threats will be on the table...Damaging winds, large hail, and even the potential for a tornado or two. The clouds and showers/storms will keep it cooler for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night (PoPs mainly 55-65 percent) although any severe weather threat should diminish through the nighttime hours with the loss of daytime heating. Lows generally in the low 50s.
On Friday, our earlier low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 60 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Shower chances continue into Friday night but should gradually diminish as the upper level trough pushes through later overnight. Lows mainly in the mid-upper 40s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives Saturday night into Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 30 to 50 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.
Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer (highs mainly in the upper 70s) and drier (PoPs generally less than 25 percent) as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...Lingering low ceilings across the I-95 corridor this morning in the wake of showers and storms from the morning.
Expecting terminals to improve to VFR by late morning with the gradual increase of SW to west winds 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...Mainly VFR with winds becoming light and variable.
Thursday...Additional rounds of shower/storms likely along with lowering cigs and visbys down at least MVFR at times. Winds generally east around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub- VFR conditions.
MARINE
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the day today but expect some fog over the waters through the first part of this morning...especially off the coast of southern NJ and Delaware. The fog should diminish by later in the morning as some showers move over the waters.
It will be quiet on the waters tonight but then expect more rounds of showers with some storms as well during the day Thursday as the next low approaches. East winds increase through the day to around 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots by late day. Seas should generally be around 3 feet through today and Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Overall, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through the period but winds and seas may briefly increase to around 20-25 knots and 4-5 feet, most likely later in the day on Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week with the new moon on Tuesday evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the high tide cycle tonight. Therefore, another Coastal Flood Advisory is in place for these areas as a result. Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding remain possible with the evening/overnight high tides through the end of the week.
Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 9 sm | 20 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 73°F | 70% | 29.65 | |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 10 sm | 20 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 70°F | 66% | 29.66 |
Oxford
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:26 AM EDT 2.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 11:58 AM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EDT 1.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 10:33 PM EDT 0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:26 AM EDT 2.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 11:58 AM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EDT 1.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 10:33 PM EDT 0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT 0.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 PM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT 0.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 PM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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