Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baden, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:58PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:19PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 736 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baden, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190801
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
401 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak surface boundary will linger over the area through the
middle of the week. Southerly flow will continue to usher in hot
and humid conditions into the region during this time. A cold
front will sweep through the area during the second half of the
week, with canadian high pressure building in for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Currently, weak high pressure is situated over the region as a
cold front bisects the great lakes. Ongoing showers and
thunderstorms are tracking eastward into western pennsylvania
this morning, with a general decrease in intensity as they near
northern west virginia. Skies are partly cloudy with high clouds
from the aforementioned activity streaming over the allegheny
mountains. Temperatures across the area range from the middle
60s to lower 70s. Some patchy fog and lower visiblities are
starting to show on satellite and in surface observations over
the shenandoah valley. This will continue to be the case through
sunrise, although widespread dense fog is not expected. Have
kept a slight chance of a shower across the potomac highlands
early this morning, but as guidance is hinting, this activity
will struggle to make much progress east of the mountains.

The main story today will be the building heat and humidity.

With mid to upper level heights continuing to rise as high
pressure over the atlantic maintains a moist southerly flow over
the mid atlantic, temperatures will surge well into the 90s
this afternoon. Coupled with dewpoints generally in the lower
70s, we'll see heat indices crack the 100 degree mark along and
east of the blue ridge, but likely remain just under advisory
criteria. Locations in stafford king george spotsylvania
counties, as well as southern maryland will have the best shot
of nearing criteria, but confidence in occurrence and duration
was just not there to proceed with a heat advisory at this time.

Further north into the dc baltimore metros, chances of reaching
criteria lessens further. Regardless, it will be very hot
today, and those spending time outdoors should be sure to
practice heat safety by taking frequent breaks in the
shade indoors and stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water.

The second weather feature of interest today will be isolated
to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Latest
guidance favors northern central virginia and across southern
maryland with the best coverage later this afternoon, lingering
into early this evening. This is supported by a weak undulation
in the mid-levels, but not much else synoptically speaking.

Given temperatures well into the 90s, dewpoints in the low 70s,
there will be sufficient instability (1500-2500 j kg) to help
get some storms going this afternoon. 0-6km shear and steering
flow will be weak, so storms will track along any mesoscale and
outflow boundaries. As with the past couple of days, any storms
that do develop will have the potential to bring down some gusty
winds and hail. Convection will wane this evening with the loss
of daytime heating, patchy fog again will be possible overnight
as temperatures remain mild in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
A deeper and stronger shortwave tracks across the area on
Tuesday as height falls commence, resulting in better coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures have the potential to challenge those expected
today, however increased cloud cover may limit that potential.

That being said, increasing instability with 2000-3000 j kg of
mucape and steeping mid-level lapse rates will be enough to
support strong to severe storms. Shear continues to be meager at
20kts or less, but given shortwave support, scattered showers
and thunderstorms looks likely. Also, given the humid airmass in
place and elevated pwats (1.5-2.0"), heavy rain resulting in
isolated instances of flooding will also be possible.

Convection again wanes Tuesday evening with some showers
lingering overnight. On Wednesday, a cold front will be
approaching the ohio valley as heights continue to fall over the
area. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the potential for strong
to severe storms once again on the table given plenty of
instability and a bit more synoptic forcing nearing the mid
atlantic. Temperatures a touch cooler on Wednesday, but still
above normal for the latter half of august, topping out in the
upper 80s to middle 90s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A cold front will finally arrive from the northwest to break the
heat wave on Thursday. The risk of thunderstorms will be highest
this day, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Latest guidance
continues to slow the progress of the front, with both the ecmwf
and ggem stalling it nearby Friday, resulting in showers and
thunderstorms. The GFS still insists the front dives well south
by Friday, but this is starting to look less likely. By
Saturday, majority of guidance pushes the front southward enough
to bring dry weather as canadian high pressure builds from the
north, but the ec is so slow thanks to a passing low pressure
wave that some rain could linger early. Sunday is now the best
looking day this weekend, with high pressure likely firmly in
control.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Episodes of subVFR conditions possible each afternoon and
evening through Wednesday in passing showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could be strong to severe. Patchy fog will also
yield reduced vsby's (MVFR ifr) during the early morning hours,
especially near the terminals that receive rainfall the day
prior. Outside of convection, winds will be light and south
southwesterly through Wednesday.

Thursday will feature a higher risk of thunderstorms compared to
Friday thanks to a passing cold front, but the risk will
continue Friday if the front stalls.

Marine
Sub SCA conditions expected through the first half of Wednesday
as light southerly flow prevails. Thereafter, southerly flow
increases as a cold front approaches from the northwest, with
sca gusts possible late Wednesday afternoon and overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible each afternoon
and evening, bringing the potential for strong gusty winds and
hail. Highest coverage of storms over the waters will be on
Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

Sca may continue Thursday as front approaches, but may abate
Friday, especially if the front stalls.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Rcm
aviation... Bkf rcm
marine... Bkf rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 8 mi143 min S 4.1 77°F 1015 hPa75°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi53 min S 7 G 8 80°F 82°F1016.8 hPa (+0.8)76°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 23 mi53 min NW 5.1 G 8 82°F 84°F1016 hPa (+0.8)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi53 min S 8 G 8 80°F 1016.5 hPa (+0.5)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 25 mi53 min 85°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.5)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 26 mi53 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 83°F 84°F1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
CPVM2 28 mi53 min 82°F 82°F
NCDV2 30 mi59 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 87°F1015 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi59 min S 7 G 8.9 84°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi53 min S 4.1 G 5.1
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi53 min W 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 1015.7 hPa (+0.5)
FSNM2 39 mi59 min W 4.1 G 6 1015.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 6 80°F 83°F1015.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi59 min W 7 G 9.9 81°F 84°F1015.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi59 min SSW 8 G 9.9 83°F 84°F1016.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 47 mi59 min SSW 5.1 G 6 82°F 83°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD15 mi2 hrsSSW 510.00 miFair79°F73°F83%1016.3 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA23 mi61 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F77%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADW

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4S10CalmSE6SE5SE6--CalmCalmCalm--S3----Calm----S3S4SW5W4
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmCalmE5CalmSE10SE5CalmS6CalmS4CalmCalmCalm--S6CalmS4CalmCalmS4S3--
2 days ago----SE6E4E4----E5SE6SE6SE4S4Calm--Calm--CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Marlboro, Maryland
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Lower Marlboro
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.21.51.92.32.62.72.52.21.71.310.80.811.41.92.32.52.52.321.7

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:18 AM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:19 PM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.30.40.30.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.20.30.40.30.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.