Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baden, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will slowly push offshore into early Sunday morning. Mainly clear skies will prevail along with light winds leading to a marginal radiational cooling setup. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most, with mid-upper 50s in downtown DC and Baltimore. Some low clouds and/or fog may be possible again, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge and near the Chesapeake Bay. However, coverage should be a bit lower compared to earlier this morning. Overall confidence is lower for fog and low clouds given drier air in both the mid and low levels. The 00Z KIAD sounding continues to show decreasing tropospheric moisture with a precipitable water value of 0.50 inches. Additionally, mid-level RH values have fallen from 25 percent to 11 percent.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure slowly drifts off the southern New England and Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Dry conditions will continue with low clouds and patchy fog to start giving way to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. Winds will switch to the south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph yielding highs in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s east of the mountains.

By Sunday evening, clouds will begin to increase from the west as a cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region. This front is associated with a piece of shortwave energy that will track from the western Great Lakes into eastern Canada and New England late Sunday night into Monday. The associated cold frontal boundary with this system will cross our region late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Current 12z guidance also remains in good agreement with the timing and placement of the front which will inhibit the potential for widespread precipitation as well as severe weather hazards.

With that said, showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it passes through. SPC continues to highlight areas along and west of the Alleghenies for a Marginal Threat (Level 1 out 5) for severe weather. The general focus amongst the 12z CAMS is back across western PA and north-central WV where the CAPE and high shear will be maximized. Further east toward western MD and the eastern WV mountains the environment may be less primed given the fact that storms will arrive at or just after sunset.
Damaging winds and hail appear to be the primary threats with any severe storms that can get going Sunday evening into Sunday night. This activity will continue to weaken as it crosses the mountains Sunday night into Monday. The highest probabilities for precipitation east of mountains Sunday night into Monday morning looks to be in areas along and north of I-66/US-50 where a stray shower or t-storm cannot be ruled out. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 60s across southern Maryland.

The front kicks east of the area Monday cold air advection funneling in. Mostly sunny skies are expected with breezy northwesterly winds gusting up to 20 mph. Highs will be notably cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the mountains to the low 70s along the I- 95 corridor and in Central Virginia.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the week. Sunny skies, dry conditions, and near to below average temperatures can be expected each day. Winds remain out of the northwest throughout the period, blowing 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots expected in the afternoon.

High temperatures each day will be in the 60s for most with higher elevations staying in the 50s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s for most with those near the Chesapeake Bay and metro areas staying in the low to mid 50s. Additionally, those at highest elevations will dip into the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The forecast tonight calls for VFR conditions at the D.C. and Baltimore terminals. Low clouds and fog are possible tonight although confidence is lower given slightly drier air over the region. Highest confidence for fog and low clouds would be at KCHO and KMRB. If any fog or low clouds were to form, it would quickly burn off after sunrise Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected through Sunday evening, although a passing shower or thunderstorm may be possible Sunday night. Highest convective probabilities greater than 40 percent remain west of KMRB with a focus toward KEKN, KPBZ, KCKB, and KCBE. Winds on Sunday will remain light out of the south at 5 to 10 kts. VFR conditions are expected behind the front on Monday, with winds turning to the northwest.

VFR conditions and NW winds blowing 5 to 10 knots are expected Tuesday and Wednesday at all terminals. Winds could gust 15 to 20 kts each afternoon.

MARINE
Winds turn back to the south Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the next cold frontal boundary. Some channeling is also possible Sunday afternoon and evening leading to a brief period of near SCA conditions especially over the open waters of the bay/tidal Potomac. SCAs are possible on Monday afternoon in gusty NW flow in the wake of the cold front.

Northwest winds are expected to stay below small craft advisory criteria on Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area. Winds near SCA criteria on Wednesday, but are expected to remain below with gusts up to 15 knots expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have steadily decreased today as lighter winds have allowed water to flow down and out of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River. These anomalies should remain low enough to prevent most sites from reaching Minor flood through the weekend. Southerly flow on Sunday may bring a return to minor flooding at some locations (i.e Annapolis and DC Waterfront). A strong cold front moves across the area Sunday night, with offshore flow early next week expected to end the prolonged period of elevated tides in the area.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.