Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:13 AM EDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:35PMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1057 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1057 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Tropical storm fay will continue to move away from the waters overnight. A cold front will approach from the ohio river valley tonight into Saturday, then stall just west of the waters through the weekend. High pressure is expected to build over the southeastern united states early next week. Please consult the latest national hurricane center advisory for information on tropical storm fay.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 110128 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Faye, centered over New Jersey, will move north toward eastern New York tonight. A frontal boundary will cross the region Saturday and stall. An upper level disturbance will follow on Sunday. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic next week bringing an extend stretch of hot weather.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Dropping heights in association with an upper level disturbance and weak surface trough was enough to kick off a round of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon and evening. In spite of little if any shear, mesoanalysis indicates plentiful instability (SBCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg), which was sufficient to support some stronger storms, albeit pulsy in nature. Even the mid-level lapse rates are poor, which is confirmed by the 00Z IAD RAOB.

With the loss of daytime heating, we're starting to see a weakening trend on KLWX radar. Still have some stronger storms on the edges . near CHO and approaching MRB/HGR. Current forecast confines storms along a line from Catoctins/northern Blue Ridge/Central Foothills, which leans heavily on latest CAMs.

No meaningful change to the low temperature forecast. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s, so there is a limit to how low they will fall.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A weak cold front will approach from the west and move through our region Saturday morning. Compared to prior model runs from the past few days, this boundary is forecast to be much weaker as the strong upper forcing support remains to our north near the PA and MD border. Wind shifts in model solutions indicate a passage during middle to late morning periods to early afternoon. I don't see a lot of showers and thunderstorms with the front mainly due to the early day passage. The upper level trough to our north could provide enough forcing in a warm and humid environment to kick off showers and a few thunderstorms mainly near the Maryland PA border during the Saturday afternoon. Overall the strong thunderstorm threat has really decreased for Saturday but I still have included chance pops for most of our region with the highest near the MD/PA border and decreasing toward central Virginia. The threat for showers and thunderstorms should decrease after sunset as daytime heating drops off and the upper level trough lifts off to our northeast. Daytime temperatures on Saturday should easily reach back into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday as winds become more west southwest during the afternoon periods with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms will end overnight and into early Sunday. A mainly westerly flow will lead to drier weather moving into our region Sunday morning and dry conditions should continue through Sunday morning. A weak southerly flow will form late Sunday morning leading to advection of warm and moist air into our region. Another stronger upper level shortwave trough will drop down into our region from the Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon and into early Monday. Increasing moisture and daytime temps will lead to modest instability with CAPE values upwards of 1500. The increased lift provided by the upper level trough and focused upper level jet coupled with fair instability will to an increased threat for the formation of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. The one limiting factor will be that they may form after the sun sets. Sunday looks like the best chance for stronger thunderstorms to form especially during the late afternoon and early evening periods. The best area for strong storms will likely be west of the Blue Ridge at this time but there remains a lot of uncertainty on the strength and location of the upper level trough. Daytime temps will hover in the 90s once again with overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A surface cold front will likely be near or east of I-95 on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. Where rainfall does not occur, temperatures should easily reach 90 degrees or warmer.

The front should push through the region Monday night to allow an area of high pressure to develop overhead Tuesday through Wednesday. Drier air will keep convection down and temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower as well with highs reaching the middle 80s both days.

A light southerly flow develops Wednesday night and Thursday. The humidity will increase and so will the temperatures as we may look at temperatures reaching 100 degrees in places on Thursday.

By late in the day Thursday into Thursday evening, a weakness in high pressure and an approaching surface cold front could spark thunderstorms. A pre-frontal trough at the surface could be the trigger in igniting these storms that would be fueled by the heat and humidity.

On Friday, the actual surface cold front could set up across our region and ignite additional showers and thunderstorms. Storms that could produce heavy rainfall or damaging winds.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms approaching the terminals this evening, but a weakening trend has been noted with the loss of daytime heating. Have added a TEMPO to MRB in case they survive (CHO already has VCTS). Do not expect consequential impacts beyond 03 or 04 UTC . and also do not expect any shower/thunderstorm activity to affect the Core-30 metros. Patchy fog seemingly a bigger potential overnight-toward dawn now that the ground will be wet at MRB/CHO.

VFR conditions are expected this weekend but there remains a threat for showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. The storm threat Saturday is mainly for our northern terminals near the MD/PA border while Sunday will see a more widespread terminal threat for thunderstorms.

VFR conditions expected both days. Any showers and thunderstorms on Monday could briefly reduce to MVFR Monday afternoon. Winds southwest 5 knots Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night. Winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

MARINE. Winds weakening as the pressure gradient from TS Fay relaxes. A south flow (10 kt or so) expected by Saturday morning before a frontal boundary crosses the waters. Another disturbance will impact the waters Sunday. However, all winds should be below Small Craft thresholds. Would not rule out locally gusty winds due to thunderstorms, especially on Sunday.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds southwest then light and variable Monday and Monday night. Winds becoming northwest around 10 knots Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Winds have become northerly which has start to force water down toward the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. No coastal flooding expected over the next few cycles but as the winds become southerly this weekend, the return of the water that has pooled to our south will return northward and we could see some coastal flood issues later this weekend.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . HTS/JMG/KLW MARINE . HTS/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi74 min SSE 4.1 G 6 80°F 84°F1007.7 hPa (+0.3)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi50 min S 12 G 14 82°F 81°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi74 min SSE 11 G 12 82°F 81°F1008.4 hPa (+0.5)77°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi110 min SSE 8.9 G 11 1008.5 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi74 min 81°F 78°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi74 min S 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 83°F1007 hPa (+0.5)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi164 min Calm 1007 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi74 min S 7 G 8 80°F 82°F1007.5 hPa (+0.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 33 mi74 min S 11 G 13 83°F 84°F1007.7 hPa (+0.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi74 min E 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 82°F1007.5 hPa (+0.6)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi74 min S 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 1007.2 hPa (+0.6)
FSNM2 42 mi80 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 1007.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi74 min SSW 8.9 G 12
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi74 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 81°F 81°F1006.8 hPa (+0.4)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi74 min SE 4.1 G 6 83°F 85°F1007.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi79 minS 310.00 miFair78°F74°F89%1009.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi79 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F73°F94%1008.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi79 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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NW9NW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE3CalmNE3E3SE3E5NE3E3E3NE4NE7NE6NE9E6E8NE8NE6NE8E6E6NE4E5NE4E5
2 days agoSE5SE5SE4SE4SE3SE4SE3SE3SE3SE3SE4E3SE6SE6SE6SE4S6W4CalmCalmSE4SE4SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:06 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:50 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.110.90.91.11.41.71.91.91.81.61.31.10.80.70.60.711.31.61.81.91.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:28 AM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:38 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.200.20.40.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.30.50.50.50.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.