Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Vernon, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

The front that moved into our region early this morning continues to sink south of our region this afternoon. Based on surface observations, the boundary is now located down near Richmond. As the front has continued to shift south of the region, a northwesterly flow through 850mb has helped advect in drier dewpoints which has helped break up the cloud cover this afternoon. Increased sunshine is allowing for afternoon temperatures to rise up into the 70s and lower 80s.

A few showers and potentially an isolate thunderstorm will be possible down in central Virginia near the front. All model guidance other than the NAM12 has been overdoing cloud cover this afternoon which suggests that we could get some increased mixing, but also that models aren't handling the dry air aloft. Shower development will likely be focused around the boundary mainly down in central Virginia where best lift and instability overlap.

The threat for showers will taper off overnight as diurnal heating shuts off. Overnight lows will be mild in the 50s with skies becoming mostly cloudy.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

The front over central Virginia will return north as a warm front early Monday morning. As the front lifts northward, clouds will increase over the region with winds shifting out of the south to southwest. Warm air advection will increase, but will likely be somewhat stymied by mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the 70s with the highest temperatures being observed down in central Virginia. A cold front is expected to move into our region from the west during the afternoon periods on Monday and slowly shift eastward through the region through Tuesday morning.

The best lift and instability will be focused along and west of I-81 which should have the best chance for observing measurable precipitation from showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. As the front moves eastward into the I-95 corridor, the chances for widespread precipitation decreases due to lack of instability.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the region through early Tuesday Morning. Most guidance has the front sinking far enough south by Tuesday afternoon that the threat for showers will becoming minimal for our region.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures expected to be above normal in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds will become light our of the north. Cooler temperatures will start to build into the region late Tuesday with overnight lows forecast to drop down into the 50s along and east of I-95 and temperatures in the 40s to the west.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A weak/broad surface high moves over the norther Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, then slides offshore Thursday. This maintains dry conditions for our area, with mid to upper 70s each day. The weather pattern becomes more active Friday into next weekend as an upper trough and cold front approach from the west. Increasingly southerly flow Friday advects in higher moisture (dew points in the low 60s)
that could result in numerous showers and some thunderstorms. The highest rain chances will be when the front moves through, but models differ on timing and strength of the front itself. Friday could end up being mostly dry up until the late afternoon, then wetter conditions for Friday night into Saturday. Drying out behind the cold front Saturday night. Temperatures slightly cooler Friday in the low to mid 70s, then warmer for Saturday in the upper 70s to low 80s. Some cooler air does move into the area Saturday night with lows dropping to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The broken to overcast cloud decks this morning are starting to give way to a scattered to broken high level cloud deck this afternoon.
Winds will continue out of the northwest this afternoon with 16 to 20 knot gusts possible through 22-00Z. Winds are expected to become light out of the northwest late this evening and into early Monday Morning. Mid-level clouds will increase early on Monday as a warm front lifts northward through the region. Ceilings will start to drop Monday afternoon with the majority of the region observing a VFR cloud deck between 4k and 6k. A MVFR ceilings will likely build into the CHO terminal ahead of an approaching cold front Monday afternoon. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible at all terminals tomorrow, but the terminals with the best chance for observing precipitation will be MRB followed by CHO. Winds will increase out of the south late Monday morning through Monday evening with occasional gusts of 15 to 18 knots possible.

On Tuesday, low level clouds are expected too break up and be replaced by a mid to high level broken cloud deck over all terminals with winds becoming light out of the west to northwest. VFR conditions expected on Tuesday.

VFR conditions are likely to prevail Wednesday into Thursday as broad high pressure over the area maintains dry conditions.

MARINE

SubSCA conditions are likely through this evening with winds generally out of the northwest over all waters. A warm front will lift northward through our marine areas on Monday leading to an increasing flow out of the south to southwest. Southerly channeling winds will lead to the need for Small Craft Advisories Monday afternoon and into Monday Evening. SCA conditions should return on Tuesday.

High pressure moves over, then east of the area Wednesday into Thursday. This likely results in favorable marine conditions across all the waters, with east to southeast winds around 5-10 kt.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.