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FXUS61 KRLX 090307 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1007 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather through today, with a warming trend through Saturday. Strong system crosses Saturday night through early Monday, then high pressure for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1000 PM Friday...

For the most part, the forecast is on track. Temperatures and dewpoints have been bouncing around fairly significantly since the sun went down. Things should still settle down in a few though so have elected to not modify anything else at this point. A few sites are on their own page currently, but we'll keep an eye on things.

As of 600 PM Friday...

Had to address temperatures and dewpoints as they were getting away from the forecast. Adjusted them accordingly and set a new trend. Some areas are decoupling which are making it very hard to set the trends but things should normalize as more clouds come in tonight.

As of 105 PM Friday...

High pressure and a rather dry air mass will allow quiet weather to persist through today. With dewpoints diving into the teens to low 30s, much of the area is already experiencing relative humidity values between 10-30%. Low RH is expected to gradually recover this evening.

From today into Saturday, a low pressure system pivots past the Great Lakes region and then lifts into Ontario. This system is projected to steer a cold front towards the area for the weekend.
Cloud cover should increase out ahead of the front tonight, then precipitation chances start edging into the western fringe of the CWA early Saturday. Precipitation chances will continue to increase and spread east across the area as the day progresses and the front draws closer.

After mild weather today, temperatures remain above normal through Saturday. Lows for tonight are projected to be in the mid 30s to 40s. Temperatures then warm back up into 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 60s along the mountains for Saturday. These warm conditions ahead of the front will support all rain for Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 135 PM Friday...

A cold front will push through the region Saturday night into Sunday, providing numerous showers, and possibly even a couple of thunderstorms. Models showing a general 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across the region, with a couple of locations near 2 inches.
This is lower than previous runs have indicated, but will still need to keep an eye on the situation.

Much colder air will moves in behind the front causing temperatures to fall during the day on Sunday. Temperatures will be cold enough to create an upslope snow event Sunday night into Monday. Thinking that the northern mountains could see 1 to 4 inches of snow with this event. Even some lowland locations could see a dusting of snow by Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1145 AM Friday...

Models show that upslope snow will still be continuing Monday morning. A high pressure system will build in during the day, causing low level warm air advection, which will cause the snow to taper off.

The high will remain in place Monday night into Tuesday. A dry cold front will then push through sometime during the Tuesday/Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame. Models have some timing differences with this system, but are remarkably similar otherwise.

Models then diverge considerably. ECMWF and GFS build another high pressure system over the area for Thursday, while the Canadian brings a disturbance through Wednesday night that pulls down much colder air for Thursday. Therefore, confidence for the end of the week forecast is low.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 620 PM Friday...

Southerly flow will takeover and pick up in intensity through late morning. Gusts up to 20KT can be expected virtually at any site during the afternoon as a low level jet settles in. Some llws can be expect at HTS and BKW during the afternoon and could sneak in at other sites if surface wind weakens. CIGs will gradually decreases in height to the point some MVFR may sneak into the western sites (HTS/PKB) while the rest get to endure VFR through the period though MVFR CIGs along with rain will make it across the area by Sunday morning, outside this period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 12/09/23 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in showers overnight Saturday night into Sunday night, and in snow showers in and near the mountains Sunday night into Monday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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