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FXUS61 KRLX 302348 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 648 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry and milder weather through tonight.
Showers arrive beginning Friday morning. A series of disturbances keep rain in the forecast through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 615 PM Thursday...

So far so good as the forecast remains on track. No changes were made at this time, but will continue to watch temperatures as some areas may decouple and might radiate out faster than the forecast, so we will see.

As of 105 PM Thursday...

The last day of November ends on a decent note as a mild and dry afternoon is currently underway. Temperatures at this hour have crossed into the upper 50s here at the forecast office, with similar trends in the Kanawha Valley. High level clouds continue to drift in from the west and will fill in more as the night wears on.

The start of meteorological winter will feature a low pressure system encroaching from the west overnight into Friday. Rain stretches into the Ohio River Valley by daybreak and spreads further eastward during the late morning hours. A few spots along the ridgetops could see a brief period of wintry precip before changing over to all rain once surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. A low level jet noses in with this system, promoting breezier conditions along the higher terrain Friday afternoon. Rain remains at the forefront of the forecast at the break point of the near and short term periods.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 110 PM Thursday...

Warm southwesterly flow will dominate the weather during the period.
Low pressure moving northeast across the Great Lakes region on Saturday will keep showery weather across the area, albeit light with the bulk of precipitation across the far north closer to the low. An additional wave moving across the south later in the day Saturday may spread heavier precipitation across far eastern zones.
Another low moves east across the Great Lakes for Sunday, with light showers possible again.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1120 AM Thursday...

A series of shortwaves will affect the area early next week, bringing cooler temperatures, and showery conditions to the region.
Much of the precipitation across the region on Monday into early Tuesday should be in the form of rain across the lowlands, with snow or a rain snow mix across the higher terrain. By Tuesday into the middle of the week, a clipper type system is expected to affect the area. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region, and provide a better chance for the lowlands to see some flakes of snow. Light snowfall accumulations look possible during this time across the mountains, with some light accumulations possible across parts of the lowlands not looking completely out of the question, however, much to be seen in the meantime.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 630 PM Thursday...

Expect VFR conditions to remain in place until the afternoon on Friday. Rain showers will then spread across the area and possibly reduce VIS slightly around 5 or 6SM. CIGs will progressively lower to MVFR by late afternoon. Gusty winds across the eastern site will occur between the late afternoon to early evening. A low level jet comes into play during the evening where some LLWS at 020FT could affect the eastern sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of precipitation may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday afternoon and evening.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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