NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 728 PM Friday...

Minor adjustment made to sky grids, clearing faster from north to south this evening. Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 1217 PM Friday...

Other than a slight chance for a shower or storm across the mountains this afternoon as a disturbance moves south through the region, dry weather is expected for the near term period with high pressure in control. Much drier air is already filtering into the area, with dew points dropping into the 50s to lower 60s. With the drier air, and building heights expected across the area on Saturday, high temperatures will inch a few degrees higher than today.

Expect the development of valley fog late tonight in favored river valleys.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Key Points:

* Remaining hot and mostly dry Sunday. A stray afternoon thunderstorm possible across western areas.

With high pressure still in control over the central Appalachians, most of Sunday should be dry. Hot conditions are expected with high temperatures reaching the 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s in the mountains. A trough will approach from the west late Sunday, which may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast Kentucky and southwest Virginia late afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Key Points:

* Turning cooler and more unsettled for the new work week.
* Isolated flooding is possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly in low-lying areas. However, the rain will be mostly beneficial.

Mid-level vorticity will arrive from the west early Monday morning, which should bring more widespread showers from west to east. Most of the energy will be focused over portions of central and southern WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA. This is where the bulk of the shower activity will be on Monday. In this region, models are depicting PWATs anywhere from 2-2.25 inches, so the atmosphere will certainly be juicy. There will be a limited flooding potential in this region, but given the current drought conditions in place, this rain will be mostly beneficial. However, we will have to keep an eye on training or slow-moving showers/thunderstorms, which can lead to localized flooding on streets and low-lying areas. Rain will become more widespread across the rest of WV Tuesday as another potent shortwave drops down from the northwest and a slow-moving frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. Again, there may be a limited flooding potential, but the rain will be largely beneficial, given the recent drought conditions. WPC currently has portions of the area outlooked in a slight risk of excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday.

Models begin to diverge for the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. It appears somewhat likely that rain may stick around Wednesday with the aforementioned frontal boundary remaining parked to the northwest, but some models show slight clearing by Thursday with subtle ridging aloft. We will keep limited rain chances in the forecast for the second half of the week, given the uncertainty.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 726 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure builds strong from the north to provide mostly VFR conditions under mostly clear skies across the area through the period. The exception will be patchy IFR/LIFR river valley fog to develop roughly from 07Z through 12Z to affect mainly EKN, PKB and BKW. Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated after 12Z Saturday morning under light surface winds.

Light northerly winds will become calm tonight. Then, winds will veer from the east on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be more widespread/dense than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR under fog/low stratus Sunday morning.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.