Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flatwoods, WV

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Monday...

Clear and calm conditions persist for the remainder of tonight, with at least patchy frost still expected across much of the area. Abundant sunshine and developing light S'ly breezes during the day will allow for highs to surge back above normal, into the lower 80s for most lower elevations, with mid-60s to 70s in the mountains. Given the ample sunshine and good mixing expected, as well as the typical shoulder season dew point biases of the NBM, the dewpoints for tomorrow afternoon are a blend of the previous forecast and the NBM 10th percentile. This results in afternoon MinRH values under 30 percent for much of the CWA However, the recent rains and mostly gentle breezes would seem to preclude any real fire weather concerns, but we will coordinate with forestry partners. The gentle S'ly breezes will persist overnight, keeping temperatures on the mild side for most of the area, with in the upper 40s for the highest peaks, and the mid to upper 50s for most of the lower elevations.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 257 AM Monday...

The highlight of the near term is the potential for severe thunderstorms across portions of the area Tuesday evening/night.
Shortwave is expected to shift across the Great Lakes through Tuesday driving a cold front across the Ohio Valley before stalling near/in our CWA Instability will be somewhat abundant with SBCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg across a good portion of the area with dewpoints into the low 60's, however, given the timing of the frontal boundary we will likely not see activity until late evening/night Tuesday as instability begins to wane. Despite this, a decent amount of instability is forecast to remain across primarily areas along and west/south of the Ohio River into the early overnight hours, which coincides with SPC's current slight risk for the area.

Current thinking is that discrete storms will form west of the area sometime Tuesday afternoon and slowly congeal into line segments as they propagate ESE. Some CAMs show the line of storms persisting well into the CWA late Tuesday night/early Wednesday through where the marginal risk extends so this will be something to keep an eye on as well. The primary risk appears to be damaging winds at this time with some large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado, but given displaced kinematics closer to the surface low, the overall threat for tornadoes appears very limited with 0-6km shear of only 25-35kts and limited turning with ESRH of around 100 m2/s2, but this will need to be monitored as the event gets closer and solutions become more clear as subtle changes could alter the overall threat.

Renewed chances for showers/storms on Wednesday as the stalled boundary lifts northward as a warm front but given overall weak forcing, storm coverage should remain somewhat limited compared to Tuesday night. No severe weather is currently expected with this activity, but it would not be out of the question for a few storms to have strong and even damaging wind gusts.

Another thing to keep an eye on is the potential for excessive rainfall, where WPC currently maintains our marginal risk for Tues night/early Wed across a good portion of the CWA Average rainfall for the area should be around a half an inch or just above, with locally higher totals likely in thunderstorms and areas that see repeat showers/storms into Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 257 AM Monday...

The train keeps moving Thursday as another shortwave eases out of the Plains, dragging another cold front across the Ohio Valley region Thursday night into Friday renewing our chances for showers/storms Thursday into Friday. Instability seems to be a little more limited with this system, especially given repeated bouts of showers/storms and attendant cloud cover limiting recovery.
Regardless, it will need to be monitored for the potential for a few strong/severe storms.

Showers and even a few isolated storms may linger into Friday night as the boundary makes its way across the area, otherwise some CAA showers are possible Fri night/Sat but these should be light in nature. Dry weather returns by late Saturday into early next week as high pressure builds into the area, moderating our temperatures some compared to days prior.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with just some higher clouds sliding over the southern and western parts of the area is expected today. Modest S-SW'ly breezes pick up this afternoon, and should remain elevated enough overnight to keep any fog at bay. Winds are already showing signs of being a bit gusty over the high terrain, and BKW may continue to see some gusts to around 15kts or so.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Localized IFR conditions are possible any in showers and thunderstorms from late Tuesday onward.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-026>032-039-040-515-517-519-521.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.