Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:44AM||Sunset 6:39PM||Monday September 28, 2020 12:30 AM EDT (04:30 UTC)||Moonrise 5:30PM||Moonset 3:16AM||Illumination 83%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southampton, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 280253 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1053 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020
SYNOPSIS. One weak low passes offshore tonight with otherwise a slowly weakening high pressure area on the larger scale that will be moving gradually farther out to sea through Monday night. A slow moving frontal system then approaches from the Ohio Valley on Monday night into Tuesday, moving across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Waves of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary, bringing an extended period of unsettled conditions. A series of reinforcing cold fronts will then follow at the end of the week with high pressure returning next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Forecast updated to slightly increase min temperatures and convey less of a spatial range (from 65 to 70) and to add in patchy fog. Made rain shower wording in forecast as scattered. A weak surface low passing offshore as well as some positive vorticity advection aloft are giving some vertical forcing factors but the showers are generally very small and therefore very brief in duration. Winds generally are from the E-SE at around 5 to 10 mph, helping to advect in low level moisture as dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s to near 70. With minimal temperature and dewpoints spreads along the coast, fog might become dense at times along the coast but the winds staying up slightly might help keep enough turbulence to prevent this from occurring and this is why the fog coverage was made patchy.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The shortwave shifts through the forecast area during the day Monday. Not as significant, but still present, is lift from a weak jet streak aloft. Cannot rule out showers at any given point of the day, but overall probably less of a chance towards late in the day as the sources of lift exit. Moisture is still shallow, so any shower activity will probably be light in intensity.
The high temperature forecast is a little challenging due to uncertainty surrounding how much the cloud cover dissipates during the afternoon. Thinking it will be similar to Sunday afternoon where it's partly to mostly cloudy with the higher cloud cover east of the city. Temps aloft will not have changed all that much as well. NBM was used for high temps, which best matches this thinking.
Lift remains on the weak side through Monday night, but will increase from the west late at night as PVA increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Low chances of showers, and once again, patchy fog development.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Monday due to a building southerly swell and strengthening onshore winds.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. An unsettled Tuesday through the end of the week continues to become more likely as deterministic models and ensembles slowly come into better agreement. Differences arise with timing of specific features, but overall much needed rainfall is becoming likely Tuesday through early Thursday morning.
A longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with two separate shortwaves, one within the northern stream and one in the southern stream, will help draw up tropical moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The longwave trough will only slowly pivot towards the east coast Tuesday into Wednesday, but will send a cold front towards the region. Several waves of low pressure will ride along the front, with the first coming late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This wave will largely be associated with the northern stream trough and will help send the cold front into the region. The cold front then is likely to stall over or just to our east late Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the same time, the southern stream shortwave energy will quickly lift northward. This depicted by the GFS and ECMWF, which develop a deepening wave of low pressure that lifts along the Middle Atlantic and northeast coast into Thursday morning. However, there are some deterministic models (CMC, ICON) and members of the GEFS that are much quicker/drier. A blend of the GFS and ECMWF were used in this forecast as they have been the most consistent the last several runs.
The most significant rain is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday night. Showers on Tuesday are likely to be associated with warm advection and increasing low level flow. More organized rain showers will then become widespread as large scale lift maximizes over a tropical air mass. Showers should diminish in coverage, and possibly end for a time later Wednesday afternoon before becoming widespread again with the second wave of low pressure Wednesday night. Conditions should dry out Thursday morning as the energy and low lift quickly to the northeast.
Rainfall amounts are a bit challenging as the placement of heaviest rain is still in question. Three quarters to an inch and a half is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Another inch to inch and a half is possible Wednesday night with a total on average around 2 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible in heavier rain. Due to the long duration of the event as well as very dry antecedent conditions and high flash flood guidance values, no significant flooding is anticipated. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding would be the main concern. There is some CAPE on soundings Tuesday afternoon/evening away from the coast, so have mentioned thunder here. Otherwise, have kept thunder out of the forecast.
Dry conditions briefly return late Thursday morning through Friday morning. A series of secondary cold fronts will move through the region. The longwave trough will also remain in place across the eastern states with its axis to our west. There are hints at another vort max within the trough moving towards the region on Friday. This energy may act upon the baroclinic zone just offshore to develop another low pressure. Differences are quite high among the guidance in its location and whether it develops offshore or closer to the region. Have capped PoPs off at chance for the eastern half for now.
High pressure then builds into the weekend.
Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will trend to near seasonable levels Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are then expected next weekend.
There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday due to a southerly swell and strengthening onshore winds.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. One weak low passes offshore tonight with otherwise a slowly weakening high pressure area on the larger scale that will be moving gradually farther out to sea through the TAF period. A cold front will begin to approach the region late in the TAF period for Monday night.
Another night of low stratus is expected with patchy fog developing overnight. Fog could become dense at times along the coast. Brief rain shower activity will be possible during the TAF period. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected into Monday morning, especially east of NYC terminals with possible VLIFR at times. A gradual improvement is forecast Monday afternoon as any fog dissipates and ceilings lift to MVFR and eventually VFR.
Winds overall will be generally E-SE at or less than 10 kts tonight through Monday morning. Winds will then become more SE-S and increase to 11-14 kts Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Wind gusts of 18-20 kts are possible Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.
. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .
Amendments will be likely tonight into Monday. Start and end time of categorical changes could vary by a few hours. Category may fluctuate between MVFR and IFR as well as LIFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday night. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Tuesday. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Patchy fog morning into early afternoon. A chance of showers, becoming likely mid to late afternoon and at night. A slight chance of thunderstorms mid afternoon into the evening. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday. IFR/MVFR with showers. Heavy rain possible at times. SW wind gusts 15-20kt day into early evening. Thursday. Chance of MVFR and chance of showers in the morning. VFR thereafter. SW wind gusts around 20kt day into early evening. Friday. Mainly VFR. Afternoon showers possible for KISP and KGON.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE. Swells have increased on the ocean a little more than guidance, so will go with a SCA for elevated seas east of Fire Island Inlet tonight through Monday. It is possible however that waves are averaging below 5 ft across most of the zones at times. More confidence in waves staying below 5 ft Monday night. Winds now through Monday night will be on the lighter side, generally around 10 kt and onshore.
Seas build on the ocean Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Seas should then will be around or just above 5 ft Tuesday night and continue to build through Wednesday. Winds may also gust to around 25 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front nears the waters. SCA conditions may also occur late Wednesday night into Thursday on all waters as low pressure and the cold front move across the waters. Ocean seas may remain elevated through Friday, but winds should remain below 20 kt Thursday night into Friday.
HYDROLOGY. A slow moving frontal boundary and several waves of low pressure will bring a significant rainfall Tuesday into early Wednesday and then again Wednesday night into early Thursday. Total rainfall amounts average around 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Due to dry antecedent conditions, the long duration of the event, and high flash flood guidance, no significant flooding is anticipated. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main threat.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS . JC/DS NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . JM MARINE . JC/DS HYDROLOGY . JC/DS
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|The Gabreski Airport, NY||162 mi||38 min||SSE 8||0.75 mi||Fog/Mist||69°F||69°F||100%||1014.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KFOK
Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||W||Calm||SW||S||S||S||S||SW||SW||S||S||SW||Calm||S |
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