Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southampton, NY
December 7, 2023 5:43 PM EST (22:43 UTC)
Sunrise 7:00AM Sunset 4:25PM Moonrise 2:15AM Moonset 2:15PM
ANZ915 Between 1000fm And 38.5 N West Of 69 W- 337 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.gale force winds possible Sun night...
Tonight..W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Fri night..Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to sw. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat..S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 11 ft.
Sun night..S winds 35 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft, building to 15 to 27 ft.
Mon..S to sw winds 35 to 45 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.gale force winds possible Sun night...
Tonight..W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Fri night..Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to sw. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat..S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 11 ft.
Sun night..S winds 35 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft, building to 15 to 27 ft.
Mon..S to sw winds 35 to 45 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
ANZ900 Georges Bank Between 68w And The Hague Line- 337 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.gale force winds possible Sun night...
Tonight..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to nw. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Sat..S winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to se. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 10 to 17 ft.
Mon..S winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
.gale force winds possible Sun night...
Tonight..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to nw. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Sat..S winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to se. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 10 to 17 ft.
Mon..S winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 072044 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 344 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves across the area tonight and then moves offshore Friday, remaining in control through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night.
High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The upper level shortwave pulls away from the area tonight and heights start to rise as a ridge builds into the area. At the surface, high pressure starts to build in. Any lingering rain and/or snow showers will come to an end early this evening, with dry conditions and mostly clear skies expected overnight.
With the high moving overhead tonight, the pressure gradient weakens. Although winds will be light, there will be some clouds around tonight so conditions are not optimal for radiational cooling. Because of this, used mainly the NBM, but blended in some CONSMOS for the lows.
As the aforementioned upper level shortwave pulls away from the area tonight, some guidance was hinting at lingering showers over eastern Long Island. The latest 12z guidance looks to be less aggressive and farther east with this and have removed from the forecast. However, a sprinkle and/or flurry can be completely ruled out.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Heights continue to rise aloft through Saturday, with the ridge axis passing overhead Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure slowly shifts east, moving offshore Friday but remaining in control through Saturday. This period will feature dry conditions with a warming trend.
Highs on Friday will be back to normal, mid 40s. The flow at the surface becomes southerly on Friday afternoon as high pressure shifts east and that will allow lows Friday night to be a few degrees warmer in a moist onshore flow. By early Saturday, the flow through of much of the column will be W/SW as the upper level ridge axis shifts east. This will help temperatures reach the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A 500mb trough digs in to our west on Sunday, then lifts during the day Monday with its axis shifting through the forecast area Monday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front approaches us on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. While it's passing through, an area of low pressure develops along the front and passes to our north.
Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times mainly during Sunday night as a strong low level jet develops over us and combines with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Rain chances continue into Monday even behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Should precipitation actually occur Monday morning over the higher elevations well NW of the city, some snowflakes may mix in with showers. Total rain amounts now appear a little higher. See the hydrology section below for more details.
Regarding winds for this event, 925mb winds continue to be progged reach 60-80kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday night. Even if a relatively stronger low level inversion were to be in place during the time that the llj moves through, about half of that speed could potentially reach the surface. NBM probabilities of a greater than 50% chance of at least advisory- criteria gusts (46+ mph) have trended a little lower over the past day, however still think there is a decent chance of a peak wind gust reaching criteria for mainly coastal sections east of Manhattan given the setup and potential help from heavy downpours. The current forecast has gusts 40-50mph for coastal areas and 30-40mph for most inland areas during Sunday night.
High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains in control through Thursday with an extended period of dry weather and highs generally in the 40s.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weakening low pressure moves through into early this evening.
High pressure then moves across the area later tonight and then moves offshore Friday.
MVFR conditions expected through around 00Z as mainly scattered snow showers move through in association with weak low pressure.
Conditions improve to VFR thereafter, though exact end time is uncertain and may be off by an hour or two.
W winds 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt into the evening. Gusts subside this evening with winds lowering back to near 10 kt and further lowering overnight into Friday. The wind direction becomes light and variable on Friday.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of return to VFR may be an hour or two later than forecast. Gusts up to 20 kt may be more occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday-Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing rain from west to east during the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms at night. S winds increasing with gusts 30 to 40 kt, mainly late day into night. Highest winds will be at the coastal terminals. LLWS likely.
Monday: Chance of rain showers earl with MVFR possible.
Otherwise, becoming VFR. W-WSW wind gusts 30-40 kt early, becoming more WNW with wind gusts 20-30 kt late.
Tuesday: VFR
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
With high pressure building in tonight and remaining in control through Saturday, winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Saturday night.
Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of the waters. Gales may continue well in the afternoon on the ocean.
Ocean seas are likely build to 10-16 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island Sound. SCA conds on the ocean for Tuesday as seas remain elevated.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.
1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain are expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. It appears that the heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 344 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves across the area tonight and then moves offshore Friday, remaining in control through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night.
High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The upper level shortwave pulls away from the area tonight and heights start to rise as a ridge builds into the area. At the surface, high pressure starts to build in. Any lingering rain and/or snow showers will come to an end early this evening, with dry conditions and mostly clear skies expected overnight.
With the high moving overhead tonight, the pressure gradient weakens. Although winds will be light, there will be some clouds around tonight so conditions are not optimal for radiational cooling. Because of this, used mainly the NBM, but blended in some CONSMOS for the lows.
As the aforementioned upper level shortwave pulls away from the area tonight, some guidance was hinting at lingering showers over eastern Long Island. The latest 12z guidance looks to be less aggressive and farther east with this and have removed from the forecast. However, a sprinkle and/or flurry can be completely ruled out.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Heights continue to rise aloft through Saturday, with the ridge axis passing overhead Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure slowly shifts east, moving offshore Friday but remaining in control through Saturday. This period will feature dry conditions with a warming trend.
Highs on Friday will be back to normal, mid 40s. The flow at the surface becomes southerly on Friday afternoon as high pressure shifts east and that will allow lows Friday night to be a few degrees warmer in a moist onshore flow. By early Saturday, the flow through of much of the column will be W/SW as the upper level ridge axis shifts east. This will help temperatures reach the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A 500mb trough digs in to our west on Sunday, then lifts during the day Monday with its axis shifting through the forecast area Monday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front approaches us on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. While it's passing through, an area of low pressure develops along the front and passes to our north.
Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times mainly during Sunday night as a strong low level jet develops over us and combines with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Rain chances continue into Monday even behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Should precipitation actually occur Monday morning over the higher elevations well NW of the city, some snowflakes may mix in with showers. Total rain amounts now appear a little higher. See the hydrology section below for more details.
Regarding winds for this event, 925mb winds continue to be progged reach 60-80kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday night. Even if a relatively stronger low level inversion were to be in place during the time that the llj moves through, about half of that speed could potentially reach the surface. NBM probabilities of a greater than 50% chance of at least advisory- criteria gusts (46+ mph) have trended a little lower over the past day, however still think there is a decent chance of a peak wind gust reaching criteria for mainly coastal sections east of Manhattan given the setup and potential help from heavy downpours. The current forecast has gusts 40-50mph for coastal areas and 30-40mph for most inland areas during Sunday night.
High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains in control through Thursday with an extended period of dry weather and highs generally in the 40s.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weakening low pressure moves through into early this evening.
High pressure then moves across the area later tonight and then moves offshore Friday.
MVFR conditions expected through around 00Z as mainly scattered snow showers move through in association with weak low pressure.
Conditions improve to VFR thereafter, though exact end time is uncertain and may be off by an hour or two.
W winds 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt into the evening. Gusts subside this evening with winds lowering back to near 10 kt and further lowering overnight into Friday. The wind direction becomes light and variable on Friday.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of return to VFR may be an hour or two later than forecast. Gusts up to 20 kt may be more occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday-Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing rain from west to east during the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms at night. S winds increasing with gusts 30 to 40 kt, mainly late day into night. Highest winds will be at the coastal terminals. LLWS likely.
Monday: Chance of rain showers earl with MVFR possible.
Otherwise, becoming VFR. W-WSW wind gusts 30-40 kt early, becoming more WNW with wind gusts 20-30 kt late.
Tuesday: VFR
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
With high pressure building in tonight and remaining in control through Saturday, winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Saturday night.
Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of the waters. Gales may continue well in the afternoon on the ocean.
Ocean seas are likely build to 10-16 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island Sound. SCA conds on the ocean for Tuesday as seas remain elevated.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.
1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain are expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. It appears that the heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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Airport Reports
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Upton, NY,
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