Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flint Hill, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:00PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:01 AM EDT (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1035 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of tstms with isolated showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure in the atlantic will promote a light southerly flow over the region into Wednesday. A cold front will approach the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday and stall near or south of the area into Friday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flint Hill, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.69, -78.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 klwx 210142
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
942 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will cross the region this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will approach the ohio valley
Wednesday, sinking into our area Wednesday night into Thursday,
possibly stalling into Friday. Behind the front, high pressure
will build over the region for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in the last
hours and some activity is still left over southern md into the
fredericksburg area. Isolated showers are also moving in from
the west and this may continue overnight, but not expecting much
from these. Some patchy fog is also possible. Lows will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night upper
vort trough will be on the doorstep by Wednesday morning and
will cross the region during the day Wednesday. A surface trough
is also expected to cross the region during this time.

Instability will be a bit lower due to increased cloud cover and
slightly lower temperatures, but additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected, with a few isolated
thunderstorms possible. Highs will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Activity will wane again Wednesday night. Lows in the
70s.

The front will shift southward into the region on Thursday,
likely crossing much of the area through Thursday night, with
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the 60s to around
70f.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
The cold front will stall near, or just south of the area on Friday,
resulting in yet another chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day. One big change will be in the
temperatures in humidity, as highs on Friday look to only be in the
upper 70s to low 80s, with some guidance even a little cooler up
north. Humidity will also drop significantly, with dew points
dropping into the low 60s. Overnight lows will be noticeably cooler,
ranging from the mid 50s over the higher elevations to the low mid
60s east of the blue ridge. Rain chances will increase the farther
south you go, so areas in the central va piedmont and southern md
stand the best chance.

By Saturday, there still remains some discrepancies between the
global guidance, with the GFS clearing the front from the area
Friday night, resulting in dry weather on Saturday. The ecmwf
however, clears the front Saturday morning or early afternoon,
resulting in showers early in the day (primarily in the central va
piedmont and perhaps southern md). Regardless, thinking that things
clear out by noon everywhere on Saturday. Areas farther north likely
stay dry all day. Another day with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s, accompanies by low humidity, thanks to cool canadian high
pressure building in from the north. Overnight lows again will range
from the mid 50s over the higher elevations to the low mid 60s east
of the blue ridge.

High pressure dominates on Sunday, with temperatures remaining
consistent in the upper 70s to low 80s. Will carry slight chance for
some showers across central va, but thinking the front should be far
enough south by then to be out of our hair.

By Monday, some indications of a return flow are shown among the
guidance, meaning that the front would begin to lift back north as a
warm front potentially. Very low confidence at this point, as the
ecmwf keeps the front to the south, while the GFS wants to bring it
back north across the region. For now, will keep chance slight
chance pops in the forecast.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
A few isolated showers are still possible overnight, but
overall dry. Patchy fog may result in MVFR ifr visibilities
overnight. Additional showers and storms can be expected both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon evening as a frontal boundary
moves into the region. Again, brief episodes of subVFR
conditions will be possible in passing showers storms.

Vfr conditions are expected for much of the long term period at
every terminal except for cho. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected on Friday, which will lead to periods of sub-vfr
conditions. This could continue into Saturday as well.

Marine
A few showers and storms are still lingering over the waters at
this time, some areas with special marine warnings, but
activity should diminish in the next hours. A light southerly
flow is expected tonight, and will begin to increase Wednesday
as a cold front nears to the west. This will likely bring gusts
to SCA threshold Wednesday and Wednesday evening, so SCA has
been issued. The aforementioned front will slowly makes it way
south across the waters late Wednesday night and during the day
on Thursday, with continued chances for gusty showers storms.

Sub-sca winds expected through the weekend. However, scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Friday could lead to some brief gusty
winds. Best chance for this activity will be in the central bay and
lower tidal potomac.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm to 7 pm edt Wednesday for
anz530-531-535-536-538-539-542.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for anz532>534-537-540-541-543.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm imr
short term... Mm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Mm imr cjl
marine... Mm imr cjl


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 56 mi62 min SE 6 G 8 75°F 85°F1018 hPa (+0.3)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 71 mi152 min W 1.9 74°F 1016 hPa72°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 86 mi62 min 78°F 1017.1 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
S3
SW3
NW4
W3
NW3
NW1
--
E1
N1
E3
E2
G9
E3
G6
SE6
G11
S4
SW1
G7
SE4
G12
N5
G13
N4
G7
S6
G10
SW1
G4
S6
SE4
S5
G8
SE6
1 day
ago
--
--
SE1
G4
SE3
S3
SE3
S5
SW2
NW5
G8
N2
G5
S4
S3
S4
S5
W4
G9
N4
G12
W3
G9
SE1
S3
G6
SE1
G4
SE3
G6
SE3
W6
G17
SE3
2 days
ago
S3
S3
G9
SW3
S4
S2
SE2
S2
S3
S6
S5
G8
SE9
G12
SE7
S5
SE5
G8
SE6
S3
S2
N7
NE3
G6
SE3

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Culpeper Regional Airport, VA15 mi3.4 hrsN 010.00 miFair73°F70°F94%1017.9 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA19 mi2.4 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F67°F84%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCJR

Wind History from CJR (wind in knots)
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrSW3--N3------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE3NE3CalmNE4CalmE3S3W5NW4NE3E4Calm
1 day agoCalm------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3W6W6W4W5W3W6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4SE4E4SE3CalmCalmNW7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:26 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.10.90.70.50.40.30.30.60.911.11.10.90.70.50.40.30.20.20.50.81.11.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:39 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:16 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.12.82.31.71.20.80.70.711.72.52.92.92.72.31.71.10.60.40.50.81.52.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.