Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flint Hill, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 5:59AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1140 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Numerous showers with isolated tstms late this evening, then widespread showers with isolated tstms with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. NE winds 25 to 30 kt... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Widespread showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening.
Sat..Light winds. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1140 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A plethora of tropical moisture will continue into the area tonight into Tuesday ahead of tropical storm isaias. Tropical storm conditions will be possible on Tuesday, with isaias tracking northeast away from the waters Tuesday night. A stationary boundary will linger southeast of the waters through the second half of the week. Refer to the national hurricane center for the latest regarding the track of isaias.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flint Hill, VA
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location: 38.69, -78.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 040136 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 936 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Hurricane Isaias will move northward up the East Coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the region on Tuesday. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest regarding the track of Isaias. A weak frontal boundary will position itself near the area for the middle and latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Most of the area is cooled/saturated now with lowering instability. Thus, there has been a substantial decrease in lightning, and may be very little through the remainder of the night. Will be removing thunder mention for most of the forecast area, except where instability will be higher near the Chesapeake Bay. Slug of light to moderate rain continues to spread northward as high precipitable water values advect northward into a surface front/trough north of (now) Hurricane Isaias. Expect rain intensity to increase through the night (mainly east of the Blue Ridge), becoming heavier in the 4-6 AM time frame as the center of the cyclone gets closer. Thus would think any flooding threat through most of the night would be the slow response variety (if any) . though that could quickly change toward daybreak. Now that the axis of highest QPF seems to be consolidating near/east of I-95, will be considering trimming some of the western counties from the Flash Flood Watch.

Isaias will move more rapidly across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia overnight into Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall to the tune of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts are anticipated over our eastern third of our CWA with lesser amounts to the west. Tropical Storm force winds are expected over the waters of the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River, and at least some tropical storm force gusts will be possible as far west as Carroll County, MD and Spotsylvania County, VA.

An upper trough will help to escort Tropical Storm Isaias northward then northeastward into southern New England and southeast New York later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. In the meantime, between 6am and 4pm Tuesday, our eastern half of our CWA will encounter an entourage of flooding rainfall, some damaging winds possibly leading to power outages, and coastal flooding Conditions will worsen from west to east. though there could be a sharp gradient in both rainfall and peak wind gusts. Secondarily, scattered thunderstorms could move into the Appalachians during the afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Isaias will rapidly move northeastward Tuesday night. An upper level trough will linger and dominate the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain cooler. This same trough could spark showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, risks from these storms regarding both severe and flooding will be much reduced without the strong forcing mechanism of a frontal boundary or a tropical storm.

There is probably a more significant threat than the showers and storms Wednesday. That threat is mainstem flooding of rivers from the rainfall from Monday through Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper level trough will slowly move eastward toward our area Thursday and into this weekend. This trough will remain situated to our west during the second half of this week. This will lead to a stalled boundary becoming situated near our region through this weekend. Shortwaves moving through the flow will help kick off showers and thunderstorms along this boundary during the later parts of this week and into the weekend. The location of the boundary will determine where showers and storms will set up. This pattern is expected through the weekend but the upper level trough starts to break down on Sunday and helps kick the front further away from our area. Daytime temperatures during this period will be much cooler than the last few weeks with temps running in the mid to upper 80s during the day and the 60s to lower 70s for the overnight lows.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions at mid evening with only light rain, though some moderate to heavy rain elements approaching from the south could lead to some periods of MVFR to IFR conditions (covered with a TEMPO group where most likely). Prevailing conditions should deteriorate to MVFR later tonight, with a period of IFR beginning around daybreak as the heaviest rain approaches from Isaias. Risk of thunder at the terminals is low. Winds will increase with eastward extent, with BWI and MTN having a chance of 40+ kt gusts as the cyclone makes its closest approach. Forecast tools were not consistent with LLWS and mainly depicted it closer to the cyclone center, so only maintained this mention at MTN. The worst conditions will continue through midday Tuesday before rapidly improving..

VFR primarily Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, even then an isolated storm can't be ruled out as a trough lingers nearby.

A stalled boundary near the area will lead to an active period of on and off showers and thunderstorms Thursday through this weekend. Periods of subVFR conditions will be possible.

MARINE. Winds will be increasing through Tuesday as Isaias moves north toward the region. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all waters. The strongest winds are expected across the middle Bay, where some gusts to around 60 kt will be possible. Waterspouts will also be possible near and east of the cyclone track. Conditions subside quickly Tuesday night with light winds by Wednesday.

No Small Craft Advisories expect at this time for the end of the week and into this weekend.

HYDROLOGY. An abundance of tropical moisture, a trough of low pressure to the west, and the approach of Isaias has prompted a Flash Flood Watch for all of our region but the western five counties. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect through the middle portion of Tuesday evening as the system passes. Guidance continues to focus on areas near the I-95 corridor with 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, so this is where confidence on flooding is highest. Much less confidence further west, but left watch as inherited until confidence in lack of flooding declines enough to cancel the westernmost zones (for now, though this will be considered through tonight). Greatest risk for flash flooding looks to be Tuesday morning through midday. Since the axis of heaviest rainfall is forecast to remain east of the larger river basins, the only forecast point currently indicated to reach flood stage is the Seneca Creek at Dawsonville. Slower responding rivers in eastern areas could flood into Tuesday night though.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Coastal flood warnings are now in effect for the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and Washington Southwest Waterfront through Tuesday night. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for the remaining tidal waters. Latest guidance has reduced the chance for a large prestorm surge, focusing more on the latter half of the event. It is important to note that shoreline facing the open bay will likely have higher water levels than more protected areas (such as the gauges at Solomons and Straits Point). Also, due to the nature of the surge, the highest water levels may not occur at the normal high tide times. Please reference the latest CFW product or AHPS for more details.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Tropical Storm Warning for DCZ001. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for DCZ001. MD . Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018- 503>508. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MDZ003>006-011- 013-014-016>018-503>508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ011-014-017-018. Coastal Flood Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ013. VA . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for VAZ025>027-029- 036>040-050-051-056-507-508. Tropical Storm Warning for VAZ052>057. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for VAZ028-030-031- 052>055-057-501-502-505-506. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ052-055-057. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ053-054. WV . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for WVZ055. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for WVZ050>053. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . KLW NEAR TERM . ADS/KLW SHORT TERM . KLW LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . ADS/KLW/JMG MARINE . ADS/KLW/JMG HYDROLOGY . LWX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ADS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 56 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 87°F1016.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 71 mi111 min SW 1.9 1016 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 86 mi51 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 85°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Culpeper Regional Airport, VA15 mi46 minN 010.00 miRain71°F69°F95%1016.3 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA19 mi46 minN 010.00 miDrizzle72°F68°F91%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCJR

Wind History from CJR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE3NE3CalmE3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:38 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.10.10.40.711.31.41.31.10.90.60.3-0-0.10.10.40.60.91.11.10.90.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:28 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.40.20.51.32.333.43.432.41.81.20.70.30.20.71.52.32.93.12.92.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.