Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Geyserville, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:51PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 6:43 PM PST (02:43 UTC) Moonrise 4:45PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 205 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds. A chance of rain this evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Thu..S winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 18 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Fri..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft at 17 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 9 to 11 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft. A chance of rain.
PZZ500 205 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Light southerly winds will prevail tonight into Thursday then switch around to the northwest with the arrival of the next weather system. This next system will also bring with it a large long period northwest swells. This swell will build on Thursday, peak on Friday and continue through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geyserville CDP, CA
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location: 38.71, -123     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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FXUS66 KSTO 112257 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 257 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Light rain at times through Thursday, heaviest in the mountains. Widespread precipitation also expected later in the week and into the weekend. Drier weather Sunday and early next week.

DISCUSSION. Precip should increase over our forecast area tonight into Thu as a strong 150kt Pac jet south of the GOA (Gulf of AK) low reaches the coast and focuses a +3 PW anomaly into our CWA. The U.S. West Coast AR Tool shows that a "weak" AR (TPW/moisture plume) along 130W will make "landfall" during this time tonight and into Thu. Rising 5H heights will steer the storm track and main dynamics a little farther N and into the Pac NW. But the strong WAA tonite and Thu (over 5 deg C/12 hr in the 850-700 mbs layer) will interact with the moisture plume resulting in steady precip over Norcal, mainly over the Nrn mtns and areas N of I-80. One to two inches of precip is forecast over Shasta Co/Wrn Plumas Co during this time, with amounts tapering off rapidly Swd to the I-80 corridor. South of I-80/US-50, only a few hundredths are expected as the storm track shifts Nwd. Snow levels are relatively high due to the transport of subtropical moisture from Hawaii. The snow profilers indicate a snow level around 5500 ft at Shasta Dam, around 7500 ft at Oroville, and Colfax, and could rise some 500 to 1500 ft overnite due to the WAA.

The wet wx should continue on Fri as 5H heights begin to fall slowly as the GOA trof emerges from its source region. This will keep the TPW plume over our CWA through the day. Model freezing/snow level forecasts came in a little colder than previous runs and we began to lower them a little from earlier forecasts. Looks as if the snow level will drop below the passes along the I-80/US-50 corridor by Fri morning. There is likely to be enough QPF Fri and FRi nite (and maybe into Sat) to warrant a snow advisory as the snow levels drop below the Sierra passes. With the bulk of the precip falling over the Sierra, our total QPF thru 12z Sun is now falling in line within the body of the ECMWF ensembles box/whisker plots for BLU, as an example.

The precip should turn more showery on Sat as the colder/unstable air drops into Norcal as the upper low and trof move across the NErn Pac to the Pac NW/Nrn CA coast before winding down on Sun. Snow levels should drop to 3500 ft Nrn mtns to 4000 ft in the Sierra late Sat, but by then the precip will be diminishing. JHM

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday).

The weather system bringing multiple days of rain and snow to northern California will be moving out of the area by early Sunday morning. As troughing moves towards the southwest US, upper level ridging begins to build over the west coast. Dry weather and mostly clear skies are anticipated by mid-afternoon Sunday, with these conditions continuing through at least Monday. Tuesday onward, models have varying solutions for when another trough will impact the area bringing additional chances for precipitation. Went with ensemble guidance for this forecast bringing back wet weather to the area Tuesday, although confidence is still low at this time with the onset of any rain. Temperatures remain fairly steady Sunday into next week with Valley highs topping out in the mid-50s. Mountain locations will mainly see high temperatures in the 30s.

AVIATION.

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions seen through around 20Z. Brief improvement may be seen before another storm brings -RA after 02Z. MVFR/IFR ceilings return by early morning to all sites. VCSH possible around 12Z at Sac terminals. Winds generally less than 12kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 35 mi33 min SSE 16 G 19 56°F1020.7 hPa
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 40 mi55 min E 14 G 20 57°F 54°F1019.2 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 49 mi55 min 54°F1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi50 minN 03.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F54°F100%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE3CalmS4CalmE3E4E3CalmCalmNE3CalmE3E4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmS4S3SE4Calm
1 day agoNW3CalmCalmW3N5E4CalmCalmE4E6CalmCalmCalmSE5SE4S333CalmS5S3CalmSE4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW3S3SE4E4CalmCalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:29 AM PST     2.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:19 AM PST     6.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:29 PM PST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:23 PM PST     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.52.92.62.63.13.94.85.665.95.34.12.61.1-0-0.6-0.6-00.923.144.4

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:51 AM PST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:00 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:42 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM PST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:41 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:03 PM PST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:00 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:01 PM PST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.40.70.80.60.3-0.2-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.3-1-0.5-00.511.110.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sacramento, CA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.