Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:35PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 4:29 PM EDT (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:14PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 141 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft...building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 141 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, and special marine warnings may be required, as gusty winds and large hail are possible with any storms. A weak cold front will pass through the waters on Wednesday, followed by a stronger cold front on Thursday, with yet another threat of strong Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday through Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 071937 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 337 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift across our region tonight. Weak low pressure will track along the front and pass overhead Wednesday morning before moving offshore. A strong cold front will move through on Thursday as low pressure rapidly intensifies over coastal New England. That area of low pressure will gradually depart into the maritimes on Friday. High pressure will build in for most of the weekend. Another low pressure coming out of the Gulf Coast states will likely affect the region late Sunday and into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. We are anticipating three shots of rain in our region through tonight as a warm front lifts gradually northward. The boundary extended southeastward from the Great Lakes to northeastern Maryland, Delaware and the adjacent waters at mid afternoon.

The first area of showers with embedded thunder was already into Maryland and northern Virginia at 3:30 PM. It will affect our counties in Delaware and northeastern Maryland as it slides southeastward along the warm front. As conditions become increasingly unstable in that area, we could see some wind gusts and hail associated with any thunderstorms into this evening.

The next batch of precipitation was over the eastern Great Lakes and the upper Ohio River Valley at mid afternoon. It was out ahead of an impulse traveling in the west northwesterly mid level flow. While it may weaken a bit with the loss of daylight, and as it encounters stable air in the low levels, there may be some redevelopment as the warm front lifts northeast in our region this evening.

We continue to expect a brief decrease in the chance of rain in our forecast area around and shortly after midnight.

The final area of showers and scattered thunderstorms that should affect us was over the upper Great Lakes around 3:30 PM. It is forecast to pass through our region toward daybreak, between about 4:00 and 7:00 AM. Even though it will be generally a nighttime event, there should be enough instability aloft to maintain a potential for small hail. Also, a low level jet of 40+ knots will be present and a few strong wind gusts could mix to the surface at that time.

Overnight temperatures should be mild with lows expected to range from the upper 40s to the middle 50s. The wind should favor the southwest at less than 10 MPH.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. The weak low associated with our final overnight batch of precipitation should move farther off the coast on Wednesday. It is forecast to pull the frontal boundary back to the south of our region. We will indicate a gradual decrease in cloud cover. However, there remains a low or slight chance of showers, with maybe a few rumbles of thunder.

Wednesday is expected to be quite warm with highs in the 60s up north and near the coast, and in the 70s elsewhere. The wind should favor the west and northwest around 10 MPH.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview .

An active pattern is poised to continue over the next several days and likely beyond as persistent troughing over the Great Lakes fuels an active storm track in the East. Definitely a much different type of pattern than we've seen most of the past few months as a steady supply of cold Canadian air gets ushered into the northern US. Combined with a growing supply of very warm, moist air over the Gulf region and a strong subtropical jet, this is a recipe for frequent storminess in the days and potentially couple of weeks ahead. Two synoptic storm systems are likely to impact us this period, one on Thursday and the other early next week, but most of the days this period will feature some weather concerns in one way or another. For this forecast, the bulk of the attention was placed on the Thursday- Friday period, as the weekend appears relatively quiet and the potential storm system early next week is a little too far out to pay much attention especially given concerns in the nearer future.

Dailies .

Wednesday night . Quiet conditions expected as we get into a short break between systems. Lows likely to be a few degrees above average with 850mb temperatures around +5 to +7C and increasing cloud cover.

Thursday-Thursday night . An active day of weather is likely Thursday. Synoptically, a classic evolution as a strong shortwave dives into the Great Lakes. The subtropical and polar jets look to phase just south of our region, with a strong (160 kt+) jet max developing. Just downstream the shortwave, surface low pressure will be tracking out of Canada and into New England. Over the course of the day Thursday, the shortwave will begin to pivot more negative in tilt. Meanwhile, the low pressure will find itself in the divergent left exit region of the strong jet max to our south, and will also feel increasing baroclinic influence as it approaches the Gulf of Maine. The result will be a period of rapid deepening of the low on Thursday as its center jumps towards the Maine coast, with its central pressure dropping below 970mb by Thursday evening.

In terms of sensible weather, two primary and somewhat related concerns for Thursday. A strong cold front associated with the strengthening low will move through during the day, likely from late morning through mid afternoon. Ahead of it, there is potential for convection. This is a conditional threat as there is uncertainty as to destabilization. Today's trends in guidance with the front are generally faster, which would limit daytime heating and instability and help keep convection more limited and/or elevated. However, if we do develop some surface based instability, severe winds would be a concern given very strong forcing and impressive wind profiles. The second concern on Thursday will be the potential for a period of strong synoptic winds immediately behind the front. We should quickly mix out once the front passes, and low level winds remain particularly elevated for a couple of hours. BUFKIT profiles suggest the potential for a period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, before winds likely weaken a little, at least temporarily, into the evening and overnight hours. Overnight, strong cold advection will be ongoing, but the breezy conditions will keep the lows near or only a little below average, though it will feel colder.

Friday-Friday night . For Friday, attention will again be on the winds as intense low pressure moves out of the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian maritimes. A tight pressure gradient will be in place, and guidance agrees on deep mixing during the day, likely to near 700mb. Winds at 850mb and above look to be in the 30 to 45 kt range, and much of that is likely to be brought down to the surface in gusts. GFS BUFKIT profiles would support advisory level winds, while the NAM would likely keep us just below. Either way, it will be a windy day and likely on the edge of Wind Advisory thresholds. Boundary layer RH values remain fairly high on Friday, and this will help some surface based instability develop. In the winter months this is the type of day we'd watch for snow squall potential. We're lacking much of a trigger mechanism, but a rain or snow shower is possible Friday especially up north towards the Poconos. Highs on Friday only in the low 50s for most with some 40s to the north as unseasonably cold air is advected in behind Thursday's front. A chilly night is likely as well, but winds should remain elevated enough to prevent a freefall in temperatures and also limit the frost potential.

Saturday-Sunday . A general lull in active weather for the weekend. High pressure moving out of the Midwest will be centered to our south on Saturday then offshore by Sunday. Could have some fire weather concerns on Saturday pending what the fuel moisture looks like as the winds, while much lighter than Friday, will still be a little breezy and RH values drop a little more. A warming trend is likely over the weekend following the Friday cooldown. Depending on the timing of the next system, could have some showers by Sunday afternoon especially to the south, but think most of the day will be dry.

Sunday night-Tuesday . Our next weather system arrives. As mentioned, did not spend too much time on this period given more pressing shorter term concerns. But the general idea looks to be low pressure lifting out of the Gulf Coast region as a trough ejects out of the Plains and ridging builds along the East Coast. With roots in the Gulf of Mexico, this may be a moisture laden system with potential threats of heavy rain and gusty winds, but we'll have several days to watch its evolution.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR conditions deteriorating to MVFR and perhaps briefly to IFR in showers. Some thunder is possible. Southwest wind 10 knots or less. High confidence in the wind and the occurrence of showers. Low to medium confidence in the timing of the precipitation.

Wednesday . MVFR conditions improving to VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night-Thursday . Initially on Wednesday night, expect mainly VFR conditions with some MVFR possible. More widespread MVFR and potentially IFR should develop later Wednesday night. Continued MVFR/IFR into Thursday morning. A band of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunder will move through from west to east between mid-morning and mid-afternoon. Behind this, improvement to VFR is possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds Wednesday night will become southerly Thursday morning. Winds will shift to southwest then west-northwest as the area of rain moves through. As this happens, speeds will abruptly increase with gusts of 35 to 40 kt possible Thursday afternoon. Low confidence in flight conditions Wednesday night. Moderate confidence for overall trends on Thursday.

Thursday night . Mainly VFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High confidence.

Friday-Friday night . Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible especially towards RDG and ABE during the day Friday. West-northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts as high as 40 kt Friday afternoon. Winds gradually diminishing overnight. High confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night . VFR. West-northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming southwest in the evening then light and variable overnight. High confidence.

MARINE. A warm front is forecast to lift over the coastal waters of Delaware and New Jersey for tonight. Weak low pressure is expected to pass off our coast on Wednesday morning, pulling the frontal boundary back to the south.

Wind speeds and wave heights are anticipated to remain below the Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Winds northeast shifting to southeast at around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Thursday-Thursday night . Initially sub-SCA conditions. However, a sharp increase in winds is likely during the late morning or early afternoon as winds shift from southwest to northwest with a frontal passage. Gale force winds are possible Thursday afternoon. Overnight, conditions will more likely diminish slightly to SCA levels, though west-northwest winds could still gust to 30 kt and cannot rule out gale conditions. Seas mainly 3 to 5 ft.

Friday . Westerly gales expected. Wind gusts to 40 kt or slightly higher are likely. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Friday night-Saturday . Gradual improvement in conditions expected. Winds should drop below gale force early Friday night, and may drop below SCA levels on Saturday though will still likely be gusting 20 to 25 kt out of the west-northwest. Seas 3 to 5 ft Friday night diminishing to 2 to 3 ft on Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical high tides will be running high for the next few days associated with the full moon on April 7. We don't have much onshore flow through the next few days, but given the current astronomical high tides, even weak onshore flow could produce minor coastal flooding. At this point, we are expecting spotty minor flooding for most high tide cycles until we get to Wednesday evening. For the Wednesday evening/night high tide, we are currently forecasting widespread minor flooding for the Atlantic oceanfront. This could extend into portions of the Delaware Bay. However, also on Wednesday, we are expecting a brief period of off shore flow in the wake of a weak cold front. If the off shore flow is stronger than currently forecast or occurs for a longer period of time, this could limit the water levels on Wednesday evening. Confidence is increasing in minor flooding however, as it looks like the stronger off shore flow won't arrive until Thursday.

On the tidal portions of the Delaware River, there could be spotty minor tidal flooding for the next few high tide cycles, but the chance for widespread minor flooding is low.

At this point, tidal flooding is not expected along the northeastern Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Iovino Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Iovino/O'Brien Marine . Iovino/O'Brien Tides/Coastal Flooding . Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi36 min S 7.8 G 7.8 58°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi30 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 53°F1011.2 hPa (-1.9)53°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi60 min SSW 6 G 8.9 72°F 56°F1009.6 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi60 min 62°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi60 min 64°F 1009.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi120 min WNW 4.1 1010 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi60 min SSE 11 G 13 1009.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi60 min E 9.9 G 12 61°F 57°F1008.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi60 min N 7 G 9.9 58°F 54°F1010.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi60 min SSE 9.9 G 11 60°F 60°F1009.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi60 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 61°F 1010.4 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi84 min WSW 2.9 G 6 63°F 1010.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi60 min WNW 14 G 19 63°F 58°F1011.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi60 min SSE 11 G 11
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi60 min NW 4.1 G 7 64°F 56°F1010.1 hPa
NCDV2 47 mi66 min E 5.1 G 7 65°F 63°F1007.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi36 min SE 27 G 31 58°F 56°F1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi40 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F53°F53%1010.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi45 minWNW 37.00 miOvercast63°F55°F77%1010.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi45 minVar 610.00 miOvercast72°F51°F50%1009.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi36 minNW 67.00 miLight Rain63°F52°F68%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NW7NW5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S3S4S3S5CalmS3SW3SE6S9S8SW6S5Calm
1 day agoS7S5S8S6S3S5S6S5S6S5S4S3S4S3CalmN7N10N10----NW9
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2 days agoN4N4CalmE3SE3S3CalmCalmSE3S3S5CalmSW5SW3SW3SW3SW8SW6S9S5S8S8S9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:29 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:05 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.51.81.81.61.20.80.50.2-0-00.20.61.11.41.61.51.30.90.60.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:15 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.5-00.50.810.90.70.2-0.3-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.40.10.50.80.80.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.8

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.