Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 19, 2019 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1035 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms late this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191426
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1026 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A surface trough will remain across the mid-atlantic region
through the middle of the week. A weak cold front is expected to
drop down across the region tonight, before stalling near the
area through late Tuesday. This front may return northward
Wednesday, before a stronger cold front moves into the region
Wednesday night. This front will slowly move across the area
through Thursday as low pressure tracks along it. High pressure
then builds across the northeast Saturday, then offshore later
Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1020 am, expanded the heat advisory for today to include
much of eastern pa (in coordination with WFO state college) and
more of nj where peak heat indices this afternoon will be right
around 100. This is so close to the criteria and given dew
points running a little higher for some areas thus far went
ahead and expanded the advisory. Otherwise, made some
adjustments to the temperature, dew point, wind and sky grids to
account for the current conditions and trends. Lingering low
clouds are now rapidly dissipating as strong heating is ongoing.

The main convective trigger by later today looks to be a
surface trough, which is currently sitting just west of our
area. If the timing holds, a round of convection may be confined
to areas of the delaware valley and points east and south, as
the trough could progress offshore by early this evening. Model
soundings show plenty of instability, but with low shear. A 13z
mesoscale analysis already shows 1500-2500 j kg of MLCAPE from
about the i-95 corridor on eastward however there is still a
low-level cap in place. Due to the low shear but high
instability, storms should be mostly pulse in nature unless
merging storms are able to develop a cold pool and assist with
some organization. Given the environment in place, local
downbursts, hail and heavy rain look to be the main threats.

Some additional convection could come tonight, as a weak cold
front is expected to sink into our region before stalling and
becoming even more diffuse. At this point, there is low
confidence as to how much coverage of showers and thunderstorms
we will see, as it looks to come late enough that a nocturnal
inversion may have already developed, limiting instability.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Continue to watch the potential for heavy rain flooding on
Tuesday afternoon and night. However, there were some rather
significant changes with the latest model runs. While the
surface pattern still looks close to a maddox frontal pattern,
in the upper levels, the latest models have our region
sandwiched in between two mid level short wave troughs, the
first crossing out of va during the day, while the second one
could lift from western pa to ny late in the day (with
yesterday's 00z model run, it looked like this second trough
would dig further SE closer to our region). If this pattern
holds, the majority of the precipitation could stay NW of our
area. For now, I will continue with the mention in the hwo, to
see if this model trend holds.

Another day of hot and humid conditions are possible. In
addition to the urban corridor where the heat advisory will
remain in effect, portions of DELMARVA could get close to heat
advisory criteria.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
An active beginning of the long term continues, before a return
of quieter conditions for the weekend.

On Wednesday, the back door frontal boundary that stalls near
the area Tuesday is forecast to return northward as a warm front
early in the day. Some showers will be possible early in the
day as the front lifts northward, but the better chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be during the afternoon as a
couple of short waves vorticity impulses aloft interact with a
lee-side thermal trough that remains across the mid-atlantic
region. It will remain quite warm and humid, with temperatures
several degrees above normal and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s, so there will remain a fair amount of instability
across the area with CAPE values reaching 1,500-2,000 j kg. Bulk
shear is not overly impressive at 25 to 30 knots as mid level
winds are fairly weak. Nevertheless, there will remain a chance
for some of the strongest updrafts to produce locally damaging
winds and large hail. SPC has our area outlined in a marginal
risk for severe weather. Another concern on Wednesday will be
the threat for heavy rainfall. Pw values reach 1.75-2.00 inches,
so any thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producing
storms. The shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
diminish overnight Wednesday as daytime instability wanes and
the short wave vorticity impulses from the afternoon passes
eastward.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area early on
Thursday, before sliding eastward through the day. As the day
wears on, instability will build ahead of the cold front, while
shear begins to increase. There will be a chance for some strong
thunderstorms to develop, which could produce strong winds and
hail. Heavy rain will continue to be a concern as pw values
increase to 2+ inches, so any storms that develop will likely be
efficient rain producing storms. The storms will likely
continue for eastern areas as the front progresses eastward, but
as the front moves offshore, showers and thunderstorms will
come to an end.

The forecast for Friday is a little uncertain as there is
differences between the GFS and ecmwf. The GFS pushes the front
far enough south to keep the area dry, while the ECMWF has the
front stalling just to our south with an area of low pressure
moving along the boundary. This would bring a period of rainfall
to much of the area Friday. The previous model run of the ecmwf
had the front and low, but not as far north but still had some
precipitation for parts of the area. For now, we will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the
area due to the uncertainty.

Saturday and Sunday are expected to be dry weather as high
pressure builds across the northeast and mid-atlantic region
Saturday, then builds offshore Sunday. As the high builds
offshore Sunday, there may be an increase in cloud cover, but
dry conditions will remain.

Temperatures for Friday through Sunday are expected to be below
normal and dewpoints will be much lower than the next few days.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today... Local MVFR conditions improve toVFR by 15z,
then remainingVFR overall. Some showers and thunderstorms
however will develop, especially this afternoon, and will result
in local ifr conditions for a brief time. Lowered confidence
regarding coverage and actual timing. Light and variable winds
becoming southwest 5-10 knots, then becoming more south at acy
this afternoon and perhaps westerly at rdg and abe.

Tonight...VFR outside of any lingering showers and
thunderstorms this evening, then some local stratus and fog
cannot be ruled out overnight. Light westerly winds or light and
variable calm.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Starting with mostlyVFR conditions. However,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected starting
Tuesday afternoon into the overnight, resulting in temporary
MVFR or even ifr conditions. Outside of thunderstorms,
southeasterly and southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt are expected.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR outside of showers
and thunderstorms. Conditions will temporarily lower to MVFR or
ifr during any showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds may
gust around 15-20 knots during the day.

Thursday-Thursday night... GenerallyVFR outside of showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions will temporarily lower to MVFR or ifr
during any showers and thunderstorms. Winds start out southwest
early in the day, before shifting to west and northwest later in
the day and overnight behind a cold front. Winds could gust
15-20 knots behind the cold front overnight at times.

Friday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds may gust
15-20 knots at times.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to stay below small craft advisory
criteria today and tonight. However, thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening. The strongest of these storms will
be capable of gusty winds at or above 35 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots and
seas approach 4 feet at times.

Thursday-Thursday night... There is a chance winds and waves may
approach advisory levels for the southern new jersey and
delaware coastal waters Thursday into Thursday night. The rest
of the waters are expected to remain below advisory levels.

Friday... Conditions are expected to be below advisory levels
through the day Friday.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
through this evening.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for paz060>062-101-
103-105.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for njz007>010-012-
013-020-027.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Gorse johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Robertson
aviation... Gorse johnson robertson
marine... Johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi65 min ESE 7 G 7 82°F 83°F1017 hPa (+0.0)77°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi59 min NW 12 G 15 85°F 83°F1016 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi53 min 84°F 79°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi47 min 87°F 1015.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi155 min WNW 2.9 86°F 1016 hPa75°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi47 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 82°F 1017 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi47 min WSW 8 G 13 90°F 84°F1015.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi47 min W 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 84°F1016.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi59 min SSW 6 G 8 86°F 86°F1016.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi47 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 86°F 1015.8 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi59 min E 1 G 1.9 86°F 1015.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi47 min S 4.1 G 5.1 89°F 84°F1016 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi59 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 89°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi47 min Calm G 1
NCDV2 47 mi59 min WSW 5.1 G 7 89°F 88°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi75 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F78°F67%1017.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi85 minWSW 410.00 miFair86°F75°F70%1016.3 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi85 minSW 810.00 miFair91°F75°F59%1016.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi71 minN 310.00 miFair92°F75°F58%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S5S8
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1 day agoSW4SW3SW4SW5W5CalmE3S5CalmCalmSE3CalmS3CalmS3SE3S3CalmS5CalmCalmCalm--SW4
2 days agoS3CalmN4CalmE10E4E4E3CalmE3E3E3NE3E3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.91.11.41.71.91.91.81.51.20.90.70.60.60.711.41.61.81.81.61.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:51 PM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.20.50.70.70.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.30.60.80.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.