Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday December 5, 2019 3:19 PM EST (20:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1246 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming sw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the night.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 1246 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore of the carolinas through tonight. A pair of low pressure systems will split the mid-atlantic to the north and south Friday, with a cold front in between crossing the region from west to east by evening. High pressure will follow for the weekend, before a stronger area of low pressure develops over the mid-mississippi valley and tracks northeastward toward the eastern great lakes early next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Saturday, and may be needed again Monday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 051437 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 937 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region through early Friday as a weakening area of low pressure retreats northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. A strong, but moisture-limited cold front will sweep across the region Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure builds into the region for the weekend. By Sunday afternoon, a warm front will lift northward across the region ahead of a larger storm system and attendant cold front that is poised to affect our region through the beginning of next week. This cold front is forecast to cross the mid-Atlantic Tuesday, with perhaps a secondary cold front passing through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The mid-morning update only extended the pops/wx for snow showers across the Poconos into the morning later. Clouds were also adjusted somewhat.

Previous discussion .

A fairly potent shortwave trough is moving through the Northeast early this morning. Despite a rather moisture-starved atmosphere, sufficient lift has been generated by the vort max to continue to produce some scattered/occasional snow showers in the Poconos overnight, and these will likely linger through daybreak or so before the ascent associated with the trough moves east of the area. Meanwhile, cold/dry advection on the upstream side of the trough in the low levels is slowly but surely scouring lower clouds in much of the rest of the area. This process should continue through the early morning, but will quickly be countered by strong mixing as daytime heating begins. Should see a midlevel cloud deck develop during the day before diminishing late in the day, which will impede insolation and warming to some degree.

Regarding aforementioned mixing, expect northwest winds to increase today as the pressure gradient generated by the passing shortwave trough (via low pressure to the northeast and building high pressure to the southwest) increases. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph will be common, with gusts to 30+ mph or so possible.

I went slightly lower than consensus guidance for highs today given potential for cloud cover to inhibit diabatic heating. This resulted in highs in the 30s north of I-80 and in the 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. Expect the area to be between systems tonight, as the next northwest- flow shortwave trough moves through the Great Lakes region during the period. A surface ridge axis will move through the northern Mid- Atlantic overnight, which should allow for quickly diminishing winds after sunset. This may promote a fairly rapid decrease in temperatures during the evening (if the winds decrease quickly enough), but this cooling will be stunted overnight by increasing mid and high clouds in advance of the Great Lakes system approaching the area. As a result, expect temperatures to stall after midnight as clouds inhibit radiational cooling.

The temperature forecast is tricky, as readings will be quite sensitive to the winds and cloud cover. I was tempted to go somewhat above guidance, but I do think there will be a period of fairly efficient cooling, so I was not confident to stray too much from consensus at this point. I did, however, modify hourly temperatures to exhibit a quick drop during the evening and very little change after midnight. Forecast lows should be near freezing in the urban corridor and at the beaches, and in the 20s elsewhere.

By late in the night, the large-scale lift generated by the approaching vort max may reach the Poconos, with generation of flurries/snow showers possible by around daybreak. Models appear to hold off timing until later Friday morning, but would not be surprised to see observations of snow showers by the end of the period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Synoptic Overview . A weak shortwave perturbation will drive a clipper-like surface low across the Great Lakes and into the mid- Atlantic Friday. With limited moisture, only scattered showers and snow showers are anticipated with this system. Zonal flow will largely dominate the eastern two thirds of the CONUS over the weekend as a larger synoptic trough begins to dig into the western third of the country. High pressure will begin to build across the Northeast Saturday and Saturday night, exiting the region Sunday as the aforementioned system draws a warm front northward across the mid-Atlantic. A significant warm up looks to be in store after the warm front lifts northward, though bouts of rain will work against this. The system will take its time crossing our region, with the cold front not forecast to move offshore until Tuesday evening. High pressure looks to build eastward out of the Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Thursday as the system pulls off to the north and east. There is the possibility a weak secondary cold front may push far enough south to bring a few scattered snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday, though the details still remain somewhat uncertain with this.

Friday . a shortwave trough will slip across the Great Lakes and into New England, deepening as it does so by Friday night. A weak surface low will slip across the PA/NY border, eventually making its way across the northern portions of our CWA Friday night. The main area of forcing for ascent still looks to remain north of our CWA, however, a few light snow showers with light accumulations will be possible across the Poconos and NW NJ. The lack of moisture should keep the rest of our area mostly dry through Saturday. Highs should range from the mid 30s to near 50 across Delmarva Friday and from the upper 20s to low 40s Saturday behind this system.

A fairly strong surface high will quickly build across the Ohio Valley and translate into the Northeast into Sunday, leading to warmer weather as a warm front lifts northward across the mid- Atlantic and return flow ushers in warmer, southwesterly flow. Highs look to range from the upper 30s to the lower 50s.

As the synoptic trough across the Inner-mountain West begins to shift eastward, a strong surface low will begin to develop across the middle of the country. Several rounds of rain look to move out of the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic as a series of vort maxima roll eastward ahead of the evolving system. The first of these looks to arrive Sunday night with another Monday afternoon into Monday night. There is some disagreement in how quickly the front will ultimately move through the region with the GFS being the much more progressive of the two, while the EC keeps a more shy approach and sluggishly pushes the front through the region, not completing fropa until Wednesday afternoon. This could be problematic in terms of excessive rainfall and will need to be watched over the coming days to see if this trend continues. Highs will be quite mild ahead of this system with widespread 50s and possibly even 60s into Delmarva Monday and Tuesday. Slightly cooler highs Wednesday (depending on the timing of the front, of course) with upper 30s and 40s. A similar story Thursday with even cooler highs in the upper 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR, though some CIGs around 3500-7000 feet may develop/continue during the day. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20-25+ kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR with northwest winds diminishing to around or below 10 kt by late evening. High confidence.

OUTLOOK . Friday . generally VFR, though some rain/snow showers will be possible mainly near and north of ABE. MVFR CIGS also possible for TTN, PNE, RDG, and ABE. Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west and northwest by late in the afternoon. High confidence in winds; moderate confidence in restrictions.

Saturday and Sunday . VFR prevailing. Northwest winds from 5-10 knots becoming light and variable Saturday night. Southerly winds from 5 to 10 knots Sunday.

Monday . Sub-VFR conditions probable as showers move into the region early Monday morning. South-southwest winds from 10-15 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions, especially in the morning with showers ahead of a cold front that will pass through the region in PM. Southwesterly winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 20-25 knots turning westerly behind the cold front Tuesday night. Low confidence.

MARINE. A decent pressure gradient has set up across the waters behind the departing potent midlevel system this morning. The strong northwest winds will continue on the waters today. Gusts have already reached advisory criteria on the open waters and on Delaware Bay. Advisory conditions are expected to continue for Delaware Bay until early this evening. Here, the advisory expires at 7 pm. On the Atlantic waters, advisory conditions should persist through late evening, so extended the advisory through midnight. Winds should diminish thereafter as high pressure moves in.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet are forecast on the waters today and tonight.

OUTLOOK . Friday and Saturday . A period of Small Craft Advisory wind gusts is possible Friday afternoon and Friday night, then winds will begin to diminish into Saturday afternoon, dropping below 25 knots.

Sunday . Sub-SCA criteria expected with light and variable to southwest winds below 10 knots.

Monday . Southwesterly winds increase later in the day, with gusts approaching 25 knots. This is less certain however given a warm air advection regime. Seas building to 4 to 6 feet.

Tuesday . SCA conditions likely with southwest winds from 15 to 20 knots and gusts from 25 to 30 knots. Seas will remain elevated from 8 to 10 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . CMS/po Short Term . CMS Long Term . Davis Aviation . CMS/Davis Marine . CMS/Davis/po


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi44 min NNW 16 G 19 46°F 1016.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi80 min W 20 G 24 45°F 45°F1015.4 hPa (+0.4)23°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi56 min WNW 15 G 20 46°F 45°F1014.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi38 min NW 18 G 19 46°F 46°F1015.3 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi56 min 46°F 31°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi50 min 46°F 1014.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi110 min W 8.9 46°F 1014 hPa22°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi50 min WNW 11 G 15 47°F 48°F1015.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi56 min NW 16 G 18 44°F 43°F1014.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi56 min WNW 16 G 20 45°F 44°F1015.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi50 min WNW 15 G 18 45°F 1014.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi56 min W 8.9 G 19 46°F 44°F1015.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi56 min NNW 8 G 14 46°F 50°F1014.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi50 min NW 17 G 20
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi44 min 52°F 48°F
NCDV2 47 mi56 min WNW 2.9 G 11 51°F 49°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi90 minWNW 15 G 2210.00 miClear48°F24°F40%1015.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi25 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F24°F43%1015.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi25 minWNW 9 G 1610.00 miFair46°F23°F40%1015.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi26 minWNW 11 G 2210.00 miFair46°F23°F40%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW11W7W7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmS4SW5W5S8SW11S9SW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:59 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:34 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.60.30.20.10.20.40.70.9110.90.80.60.40.30.30.40.60.811.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:46 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:38 PM EST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.30.60.80.70.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.