Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pollock Pines, CA
November 3, 2024 4:57 AM PST (12:57 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Sacramento, CA
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FXUS66 KSTO 031105 AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 305 AM PST Sun Nov 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry and windy weather through midweek. Strong, gusty northerly winds develop on Sunday continuing into Monday. Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday as gusty north winds return alongside lowered humidity.
DISCUSSION
Key Points: - Strong, gusty northerly winds develop this morning continuing into Monday. Strongest gusts will occur during the morning hours roughly between 8 AM-12 PM PST.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Delta and adjacent western side of the Central Valley from 7 AM PST today until 10 AM PST Monday.
- Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday as gusty north winds return alongside drier fuels and lowered relative humidity.
High pressure ridging over the Pacific Northwest and a low pressure system over the Great Basin will generate gusty northerly flow across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley I-5 corridor and the Delta today and tomorrow. Valley wind gusts are forecasted to be 25-40 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph in the Delta.
NBM probabilities have a 50-90% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH for the far western Central Valley through the Delta on Sunday, with probabilities around 30-60% on Monday for the same locations.
Winds will peak in intensity during the morning hours today and Monday (roughly between 8 AM-12 PM), but will still be breezy in between these periods. As a result, a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM PST today until 10 AM PST on Monday. The strong north-to-south pressure gradient created by this upper- level pattern, will additionally bring 20 to 35 mph downslope gusts to the Sierra. Valley north winds will still be gusty on Tuesday, although not as strong as before, with 15 to 25 mph gusts. No elevated fire weather conditions are expected to accompany these early week winds (today-Tues). This is principally due to recent precipitation and cooler temperatures which have allowed for higher daytime and overnight recoveries.
The same cannot be said for Wednesday when another round of northerly winds develops Tuesday evening and into Wednesday as another low drops down from Montana/Idaho and retrogrades over the Great Basin. Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will generate another north-to-south pressure gradient. These winds will be of a similar intensity as the previous round, except with a 55 to 90% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the Delta and Valley locations along the I-5 corridor. Strongest gusts will once again be focused around the Delta, where there is a 40 to 70% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph. Minimum daytime humidities will be in the mid teens to mid 20s across the Valley. Overnight values will similarly be low, with maximum relative humidities in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The lowest values will be located around the Delta and Sacramento Valley locations west of I-5, where the strongest winds will be present. These conditions will result in elevated fire weather concerns for Wednesday. The question remains however, whether or not available fuels will be dry enough in combination with the forecasted conditions as they may mitigate fire weather concerns.
Stay tuned to the forecast and follow us on social media for more updates about these midweek winds and elevated fire weather conditions.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 305 AM PST Sun Nov 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry and windy weather through midweek. Strong, gusty northerly winds develop on Sunday continuing into Monday. Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday as gusty north winds return alongside lowered humidity.
DISCUSSION
Key Points: - Strong, gusty northerly winds develop this morning continuing into Monday. Strongest gusts will occur during the morning hours roughly between 8 AM-12 PM PST.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Delta and adjacent western side of the Central Valley from 7 AM PST today until 10 AM PST Monday.
- Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday as gusty north winds return alongside drier fuels and lowered relative humidity.
High pressure ridging over the Pacific Northwest and a low pressure system over the Great Basin will generate gusty northerly flow across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley I-5 corridor and the Delta today and tomorrow. Valley wind gusts are forecasted to be 25-40 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph in the Delta.
NBM probabilities have a 50-90% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH for the far western Central Valley through the Delta on Sunday, with probabilities around 30-60% on Monday for the same locations.
Winds will peak in intensity during the morning hours today and Monday (roughly between 8 AM-12 PM), but will still be breezy in between these periods. As a result, a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM PST today until 10 AM PST on Monday. The strong north-to-south pressure gradient created by this upper- level pattern, will additionally bring 20 to 35 mph downslope gusts to the Sierra. Valley north winds will still be gusty on Tuesday, although not as strong as before, with 15 to 25 mph gusts. No elevated fire weather conditions are expected to accompany these early week winds (today-Tues). This is principally due to recent precipitation and cooler temperatures which have allowed for higher daytime and overnight recoveries.
The same cannot be said for Wednesday when another round of northerly winds develops Tuesday evening and into Wednesday as another low drops down from Montana/Idaho and retrogrades over the Great Basin. Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will generate another north-to-south pressure gradient. These winds will be of a similar intensity as the previous round, except with a 55 to 90% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the Delta and Valley locations along the I-5 corridor. Strongest gusts will once again be focused around the Delta, where there is a 40 to 70% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph. Minimum daytime humidities will be in the mid teens to mid 20s across the Valley. Overnight values will similarly be low, with maximum relative humidities in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The lowest values will be located around the Delta and Sacramento Valley locations west of I-5, where the strongest winds will be present. These conditions will result in elevated fire weather concerns for Wednesday. The question remains however, whether or not available fuels will be dry enough in combination with the forecasted conditions as they may mitigate fire weather concerns.
Stay tuned to the forecast and follow us on social media for more updates about these midweek winds and elevated fire weather conditions.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
EPAC upper ridging extends inland over NorCal Thursday into Friday. Areas of gusty north to east wind possible early Thursday, otherwise pressure gradient decreases with lighter wind into Friday. Models begin to diverge over the weekend with EC maintaining more ridging, while GFS advertising short wave trough moving thru Sat, with deeper system approaching the West Coast Sunday. Cluster analysis showing varied solutions between the EC/GFS over the weekend. NBM leans towards troughing, but POPs look overdone as wave Sat doesn't look strong enough for much precip at this time. High temperatures expected to be near to slightly below normal through the extended forecast period.
AVIATION
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs except isold MVFR/IFR/LIFR in BR/FG possible in Sac Vly til 16z Sun. In Central Vly/Delta, areas Nly sfc wind 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts btwn 16z-03z. In foothills/mtns, areas N-E sfc wind gusts 30-40 kts aft 18z.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.
EPAC upper ridging extends inland over NorCal Thursday into Friday. Areas of gusty north to east wind possible early Thursday, otherwise pressure gradient decreases with lighter wind into Friday. Models begin to diverge over the weekend with EC maintaining more ridging, while GFS advertising short wave trough moving thru Sat, with deeper system approaching the West Coast Sunday. Cluster analysis showing varied solutions between the EC/GFS over the weekend. NBM leans towards troughing, but POPs look overdone as wave Sat doesn't look strong enough for much precip at this time. High temperatures expected to be near to slightly below normal through the extended forecast period.
AVIATION
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs except isold MVFR/IFR/LIFR in BR/FG possible in Sac Vly til 16z Sun. In Central Vly/Delta, areas Nly sfc wind 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts btwn 16z-03z. In foothills/mtns, areas N-E sfc wind gusts 30-40 kts aft 18z.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.
Wind History for Port Chicago, CA
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Airport Reports
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAUN
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(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Central West Coast
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