Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rehoboth Beach, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 5:21 AM EDT (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ454 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft this afternoon. Patchy fog early this morning. A chance of showers early this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 401 Am Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A summer-like pattern will persist throughout the week with scattered showers and Thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm will impact the region Friday through Saturday as it moves north from the carolinas. A cold front will follow the coastal storm over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rehoboth Beach, DE
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location: 38.72, -75.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 070751 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A summer-like pattern will persist throughout the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm will impact the region Friday through Saturday as it moves north from the Carolinas. A cold front will follow the coastal storm over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Patchy fog and low clouds are starting to develop across the region, especially in those areas that saw heavier rain yesterday. As we go through the morning, ceilings will lift and fog will dissipate.

The main problem for today will be just how much the atmosphere can rebound from being so worked over yesterday. Model soundings show increasing instability as we head towards this afternoon and some of the CAMs have scattered to widespread convection developing over our forecast area. One issue is the cloud cover and how fast it gives way to sunny skies. We also lack a source of extra lift across the region as weak ridging is present aloft and no shortwaves rotate through the flow into our area today. One plus is that we have decently high CAPE values (1500-2000 J/kg) so the instability will be there. Once again, we have very weak steering flow across the region so not much help in keeping things moving should they develop. With PWATs still around 1.5-2.0", heavy, torrential rains will be possible and the greatest concern will certainly be in those areas that saw abundant rain yesterday. So while the severe threat is less the flooding threat remains pretty high. The worded forecast may be more pessimistic than it actually appears as majority of anything that does get going will likely be later in the day and may be more isolated to scattered.

With plenty of moisture across the region and highs rising into the mid to upper 80s today, it will feel humid and uncomfortable. Winds will be generally out of the south to southeast through the day today and mainly around 10 to 15 mph but unfortunately might not provide much relief from the heat and humidity.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/. Convection is expected to dwindle into this evening and then dissipate overnight. A few isolated showers may continue across our northern zones after midnight but for the most part we should have dry conditions across the forecast area.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy as the flow remains out of the south/southeast. With continued low level moisture, we will once again see some patchy fog develop but confidence is low as to exactly where it will be since it may be largely dependent on where the rain falls. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The extended appears to be fairly active with several events to note. Wednesday starts off quiet from a sensible weather perspective as a mid level ridge sits over the region. Max temps will again start to push back into the low 90s as modest warm air advection returns.

While the Mid-Atlantic is briefly quiet, our attention turns further south to the potential development of a symmetric warm core low pressure system that is expected to develop somewhere between Georgia and the Carolinas. The 12z and 18z guidance developed a weak low pressure system that takes on tropical characteristics as it moves eastward to the Atlantic. Once the system reaches the Atlantic, the Bermuda High should start to push the system towards the north up the Altantic coastline Friday into Saturday. Based on this guidance, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the Tropical Weather Outlook to indicate a 40% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days. The 00z guidance this morning offers a slightly different solution as the low pressure system starts off symmetric warm core, but quickly undergoes extra-tropical transition becoming a cold core asymmetric system based on analysis of cyclone phase space diagrams available at moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase

Time will tell on how the system develops and/or how it will impact the area. However the idea that we could see a coastal low pressure system moving up the coast Thursday night into Friday appears fairly likely. This will have the potential to cause an increase in coastal tidal heights and the possibility for moderate to heavy rain depending on where the center of the low actually tracks.

As the low tracks to the north, it quickly gets pushed out of the region by a deepening mid level trough dropping out of the Great Lakes. This will bring another round of widespread rainfall with scattered thunderstorms across the region. Height falls are fairly strong with the cold front and almost all of the medium ranged guidance indicates that we'll be sitting in the right rear entrance region of a 250mb jet. So there should be substantial synoptic lift available and when considering temps will again be pushing into the upper 80's to low 90s with dew points above 70F we'll likely see fairly widespread thunderstorms as EQ's are progged to be in excess of 30kFt with temps of -35C. Of course this is all based on trends in the latest suite of medium ranged guidance and subtle changes to the location of the upper level jet/mid level trough/height falls will all have significant impacts on the potential for potent thunderstorms.

Coming out of the weekend the low pressure system that should track through our area on Saturday will run into a road block in the form of a broad Atlantic high pressure system. The high will force the low north and may bring an elongated low pressure system back onshore causing another round of showers and potential thunderstorms but at this rate, I dont have a significant amount of confidence in what will happen beyond the frontal passage over the weekend based on trends in guidance.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through early morning . VFR conditions are prevailing at many of the terminals but satellite shows the low clouds starting to spread inland and across the region. Expect ceilings to drop to MVFR and then IFR, mainly between 09Z-10Z. Confidence remains low at just how many terminals will drop below MVFR at this time. Light easterly winds to light and variable around the region. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern but low confidence on fog/low clouds and timing.

Today . Fog/low clouds may linger into the morning hours but should give way to VFR conditions by 14Z/15Z. There is another chance for showers and thunderstorms after 18Z. However, it is difficult to determine which TAF sites will be impacted at this point so have mainly included VCTS for the afternoon hours at this time. Mostly south winds around 10 knots outside of storms. Moderate confidence for most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for and location of storms.

Tonight . VFR conditions expected with possible MVFR conditions north and west of KPHL. Light southerly winds. Low confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Thursday . Prevailing VFR expected, however scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally between 18Z and 06Z each day, may locally lower restrictions. Winds will be generally southerly becoming southeasterly around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Friday . MVFR/IFR ceilings probable with southeasterly to easterly winds around 10 kts. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will lower visibility and ceiling restrictions locally. Low to Moderate confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR expected with rapidly lowering flight conditions in showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters through Tuesday. South to southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots with some gusts around 20 knots. Winds will drop down to around 5 to 10 knots overnight. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet on the ocean waters.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Thursday: Expect sub-sca conditions with gusts up to 15 kts and winds initially starting southerly becoming southeasterly by Thursday afternoon. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Thursday, which may locally increase winds and seas.

Friday through Saturday: SCA conditions anticipated beginning Friday as seas build to 7 feet on easterly flow with gusts up to 20 kts. This continues on Saturday with seas anticipated to be 5 to 7 feet during the day with the flow becoming west to southwest behind a coastal low. Showers and thunderstorms certainly remain possible which may locally increase winds and and seas.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents through Thursday due to the combination of shorter period swells and relatively low surf heights.

However heading into Friday, we anticipate the risk for dangerous rip currents to increase substantially. As seas build over the region, and we go through a prolonged period of longer period onshore swell, the risk for dangerous, life threatening rip currents will increase to at least moderate and possibly high especially for the Jersey coastline. Those with beach interests should monitor conditions closely as the development of dangerous rip currents seems quite likely based on latest trends in the forecast.

EQUIPMENT. There is an issue with the observation equipment at Reading, KRDG. Technicians will be taking a look at the equipment on Tuesday.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Meola Short Term . Meola Long Term . Deal Aviation . Deal/Meola Marine . Deal/Meola Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 5 mi51 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 73°F1017.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 18 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 76°F1018 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 19 mi51 min SSE 7 G 8.9 1018.5 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 27 mi91 min 2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi51 min ESE 7 G 8 72°F 71°F1018 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 43 mi51 min Calm G 0 71°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE15 mi27 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds71°F69°F94%1017.6 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ22 mi4.4 hrsSSW 910.00 miLight Rain72°F70°F94%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmSW55W65SW11S7W9W7
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2 days agoCalmNE6E9E9E7NE4E7E9E8E466E7SE7E6E4SE4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rehoboth Beach, Delaware
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Rehoboth Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:02 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:13 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:25 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.210.1-0.30.10.91.92.93.63.93.83.12.21.40.60.30.51.32.43.44.24.64.6

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:34 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:39 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:27 PM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.50.20.91.31.20.80.2-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.2-0.8-0.20.51.11.61.51.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.