Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Friendship, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:36PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:29 PM EDT (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 438 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
.severe Thunderstorm watch 333 in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 438 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Tuesday. Low pressure will develop to the south Wednesday and it may impact the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendship CDP, MD
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location: 38.75, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 061837 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday, pumping warm and humid air into the region, along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Cutoff low pressure will develop to the south on Wednesday and it may impact the area later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Temperatures across the region have soared into the low to mid 90s across the region, with dew points in the low to mid 70s as well. As a result, heat indices are in the upper 90s to low 100s in a several spots, especially in the more urban areas. Surface wind observations depicting generally southerly flow across the region. However, we are starting to see some easterly flow off the Chesapeake Bay from the bay breeze. This will help to spark some convection a little later up along the I-95 corridor.

Some storms already starting to pop up over central Virginia, associated with the terrain circulations as expected. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through this evening for areas along/east of the Blue Ridge. The environment is quite impressive today with the heat and humidity, paired with a weak shortwave passing just north of our area. MLCAPE values have soared into the 3000-4000 J/kg range, which is more than enough to get some tall storms this afternoon, as is already being observed. Low-level lapse rates, as expected, are very impressive as well (in excess of 8 C/km). Mid-level lapse rates are lacking, but still marginally better than the past 2 days (around 6.5 C/km or so). Additionally, there is about 25-30 knots of effective layer shear across the area, with highest values north and east. Deep-layer shear remains unimpressive, but still marginally better than recent days, owing to the shortwave to the north bringing just enough mid-level flow through the region. All of this together will lead to high coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon, with some having a good chance to become tall and organized. Could see some large hail today, much like we saw yesterday. Of course, damaging winds are a threat today as storms collapse. Could again be looking at a risk for some strong downbursts/microbursts, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg.

With all of this considered, we also run the risk for flash flooding across portions of the area. This is particularly a concern along the I-95 corridor between Fairfax and Harford County. PWAT values are increasing, and should reach near the 2 inch range this afternoon. While the setup doesn't necessarily look very favorable for training thunderstorms, can't rule out an isolated instance of flash flooding in the metro areas, especially if storms keep popping up along all of the different mesoscale boundaries we will have around (river/bay breezes and outflow boundaries in particular).

Storms may last into the later part of the evening, but should be pushing off to the south and east. Storms will linger later over southern MD as a result. Think by just after midnight though, things should be clear of the region.

Following the storms tonight, some clouds likely linger around, with low temperatures only into the low 70s (mid-upper 60s in the higher elevations). Some valley fog possible once again tonight west of the Blue Ridge.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday, so the pattern will remain much the same. Rinse and repeat forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, with hot and humid conditions expected across the region. High temperatures each day remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with dew points holding steady in the low 70s. This will result in heat indices in the mid-upper 90s each day. While not quite expecting any advisories at this time, still very hot and humid, so it will be important to continue to take all proper heat precautions. Terrain circulation and the bay/river breezes will bring a chance for thunderstorms each day. With very little flow aloft however, storms not expected to be as strong as we will see today. However, instability will remain high given the high heat and humidity, and conditions remain favorable for some localized downbursts, so can't completely rule out a couple stronger storms either day. As we have seen these past couple of days, the bay/river breezes and terrain circulation can create some localized stronger shear and support an isolated stronger storm.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Guidance seems to be coalescing around the idea of a low pressure developing along the coast to the south on Thursday and moving north along the coast Friday into Saturday. This would cause showers and perhaps some steadier rain and/or thunderstorms to spread north and west from the low into southern and eastern parts of our forecast area, but the track may keep northwestern areas fairly dry. Temperatures will cool as this oddly non-summer like pattern unfolds, with highs in the 80s, though lows would still be muggy with readings staying in the high 60s and lower 70s overall. Will need to watch for any focused rain bands or convection which could result in flooding. By Sunday, the low is more likely off to our north and east, but a cold front may be approaching or passing through from the northwest by this point, which could result in more showers and storms. Bottom line is the entire long term looks rather active, but with temps staying closer to normal.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions and light winds are generally expected through Wednesday. Hot and humid conditions continue, with daily chances for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorm in this environment.

For today, we will see more numerous showers and storms, especially along/east of the Blue Ridge. So all terminals outside of MRB should see a storm at least nearby today. For DCA/BWI/MTN, have a bit more confidence in timing, so have introduced TSRA in those areas for early this evening. VCTS everywhere else, and honestly storms may last at any terminal through 00z-001z potentially. Will update TAFs as needed if the threat looks to linger.

Main concern Thursday and Friday will be potential for early morning fog and afternoon thunderstorms.

MARINE. Sub-SCA southerly winds are expected over the waters through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters today. With the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through this evening, Special Marine Warnings may be needed as storms reach the waters, with large hail and damaging winds both threats.

Isolated to scattered storms again expected each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday, with continued light southerly flow. Special Marine Warnings may be needed if storms get strong.

Mainly light winds on the waters Thursday and Friday, with the primary hazard being potential for afternoon thunderstorms both days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tidal anomalies, while still elevated to an extent, have come down slightly today. Forecast has come down a bit in this cycle, and no longer anticipating flooding anywhere. However, slight changes in the winds could easily bump up anomalies just enough to get us near minor in the more sensitive areas, so will have to keep watching that in future forecast cycles. Tides still remain in the caution stage during high tide for most areas over the next several days in the continued southerly flow.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ006-011- 013-014-504-506>508. VA . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ053-054. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . CJL SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . RCM/CJL MARINE . RCM/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 9 mi119 min S 7 1015 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 12 mi29 min SE 17 G 18 84°F 82°F1015.9 hPa (-1.6)77°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 15 mi35 min SSE 14 G 18 83°F 82°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi59 min SE 6 G 12 89°F 82°F1014.6 hPa
CPVM2 19 mi59 min 85°F 77°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi149 min SSE 14 G 16 1016.6 hPa (-1.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi59 min S 8.9 G 12 91°F 87°F1014.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 28 mi59 min S 12 G 15 89°F 84°F1015.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 30 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 12 89°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi59 min S 11 G 13 88°F 1014.3 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi71 min S 8 G 13 90°F 1014.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 36 mi59 min SSW 5.1 G 11 91°F 83°F1014 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi59 min S 6 G 15 89°F 83°F1015.1 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi59 min SW 7 G 8.9 92°F 85°F1014.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 43 mi59 min SSW 12 G 15
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi59 min S 15 G 17 87°F 86°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD16 mi95 minS 119.00 miFair89°F75°F65%1015.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD18 mi33 minSSW 1210.00 miFair92°F71°F51%1015.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD19 mi34 minS 107.00 miFair93°F75°F56%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADW

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8S11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW9SW5SW5CalmS7CalmS3S10S9
2 days agoNW4W7NW4CalmCalmCalmN10CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE5N3CalmCalmCalmE10SE5SE6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

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0.40.611.31.51.71.61.51.310.80.50.40.40.50.70.9110.90.70.50.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.611.31.51.71.61.51.310.80.50.40.40.50.70.9110.90.70.50.40.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.