Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mitchell, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:42PM Saturday August 15, 2020 6:06 AM EDT (10:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:04AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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location: 38.75, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 150825 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 425 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

UPDATE. The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

There will be a few instances of marginal chances for showers and thunderstorms today through Monday. Any prolonged, organized thunderstorm during this time period could produce a severe wind gust, although this will be very isolated. Temperatures will cool down following today as a succession of cold fronts will pass through tonight and Monday. Throughout the long term conditions look to be cool and dry.

NEAR TERM /Today/.

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Near surface saturation thanks to clear skies and higher moisture content has positioned central Indiana in a semi-favorable set up for fog formation early this morning. Main area of concern will be over western and northern portions of the region where temperatures remain low and winds are calm. Current satelitte imagery does not show much fog formation yet, and therefor expectations have been lowered. Visibilities less than 1 mile should be isolated. By mid morning, any lingering fog should dissipate.

With mostly clear skies, temperatures should warm substantially in the midst of peak solar heating. Expect highs this afternoon to be in the upper 80s. Precipitation chances will increase in the east later this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and promotes isolated diurnal convection. Easter portions of the region are positioned within a slightly more dynamic regime, explaining the increase in PoPs over this region.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/.

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

The main focus during the short term will continue to be on the passage of an upper level wave late Saturday night into Sunday. This wave will pass over the Great Lakes, keeping the strongest upper level support away from central Indiana. Cooler air behind this wave looks to breach central Indiana Saturday night. This in conjunction with a moderate warm sector will create a weak surface boundary, providing some lift as it passes through Indiana. As this front moves through, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Depending on the timing of convective initiation later today, some thunderstorms over northwest potions of central Indiana could maintain themselves long enough to organize and produce severe wind gusts. Confidence in any thunderstorms reaching severe criteria is low at this time.

The lack of sufficient upper level forcing will cause the boundary to stall over central Indiana, keeping eastern portions of the state in the warm sector on Sunday. This sector will also have slightly higher moisture content allowing for additional diurnal convection in the afternoon and evening. Convective development should help move the boundary east of central Indiana by Sunday night, dropping any chances of precipitation.

A secondary cold front will pass through northern central Indiana on Monday, providing another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. A more favorable wind profile for organized convection will exist on Monday, but with dew point depressions greater than 20, thunderstorm development will be isolated.

Temperatures on Sunday and Monday should be near to below seasonal given the influx of slightly cooler air. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/. Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Fantastic late summer weather is expected next week as an amplified upper level pattern sets up across the country for much of the extended period.

A ridge will center over the Intermountain West with a broad trough aligned east of the Mississippi River. The upper trough will bring a cooler airmass into the region for next week combining with high pressure at the surface to produce an extended period of dry weather and seasonably comfortable temperatures. Highs through the period will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with low humidity levels throughout.

As a Bermuda High sets up east of the Carolinas late next week . deeper moisture will gradually advects into the region and become more pronounced by next weekend.

AVIATION /Discussion for 150900Z TAF Update/. Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Made a few subtle adjustments for the next few hours based on current obs. Fog has remained localized and been slightly slower to develop. 06Z discussion follows.

Patchy fog could develop at the sites during the overnight hours. With some cloud cover in the north, lower confidence of below MVFR visibilities at KLAF. Instead have seen KBMG start to bounce a little, so will go with MVFR tempo IFR visibilities there. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and have some VCTS at the more likely western sites with that. Winds will be light and variable overnight and through much of the day. Lower ceilings will be possible tomorrow night as the next front approaches.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.



SYNOPSIS . Updike NEAR TERM . Updike SHORT TERM . Updike LONG TERM . Ryan AVIATION . CP/Ryan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN29 mi74 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F93%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBMG

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmN4Calm33N54SE4S5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4NE3CalmCalm3N4NE7N7N5S6W3CalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmN4NE4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN4NE3CalmE6SE3Calm3CalmE43SE5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.