Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mitchell, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:57PM Thursday January 23, 2020 5:18 AM EST (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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location: 38.75, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 230824 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 324 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

UPDATE. The SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Active weather is expected over the next 72 hours as an upper level low pressure system moves through the area. Precipitation will initially begin as rain today and tomorrow with some snow mixing in tomorrow night and Saturday. Little to no snow accumulations are expected at this time. High pressure will move in Sunday with dry conditions for much of next week before small chances for precipitation return for the later half of the work week.

NEAR TERM /Today/.

Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Much of the period will be dry with some small chances for rain during the latter portions of the day as a strong upper level and associated surface cold front approach the area. Latest radar images show a few areas of light precipitation across central Illinois with some mixed precipitation falling. Over central Indiana, air near the surface remains too dry for anything to reach the ground. Saturation is expected across the western counties by mid morning and will reach the eastern counties by late this afternoon. In addition to the dry low level air, little upper level forcing is expected over the area today which will further limit precipitation chances. Overall, a few snowflakes may mix in this morning across the western counties, but otherwise rain is expected to be the dominant precipitation type with little precipitation accumulation.

Fairly strong warm air advection will be in place today which will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s even with little to no breaks in the clouds.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/.

Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Active weather will continue into the short term period as a strong upper level low pressure and associated surface cold front move through central Indiana. By tonight, the atmosphere will be fully saturated with stronger upper level forcing in place as the upper low nears. This will lead to widespread light rain over the area through much of the night. The LLJ will be strongest further east into Ohio which is where the best moisture advection and highest rain amounts are expected. Confidence in rain tonight is very high and trended POPS near 100 to account for the high confidence.

Rain will continue off and on into the day Friday as the dry slot works its way into central Indiana. Confidence in rain tomorrow is high with lower confidence in rain at any given point. A few snow showers may begin to mix in late Friday night as colder air works its way in on the back end of the system. Models show a good flow of moist air originating from the Atlantic Ocean and wrapping around the low to arrive in central Indiana by Saturday. Confidence that the moisture makes it this far is fairly low and if it does, it should remain light. Thermal profiles show that there may be a brief period where accumulating snow is possible Saturday morning, but will be strongly dependent on surface temperatures which confidence is low in at this time. Precipitation will end by Saturday night with dry weather for Sunday.

Overall rain amounts will be around a half inch with some locally higher amounts in the eastern counties. Snow accumulations are expected to be less than a half inch with low confidence in any accumulations occurring. Temperatures will be above average through the period with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the low to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/.

Issued at 231 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

The national blend was accepted for most items.

Starting Sunday, surface high pressure will build in from the west in the wake of the previous low pressure system, and will stick around for most of the Long Term. This will keep central Indiana dry, blocking moisture from the south. Afternoon high temperatures will be near to above average, with a slight uptick in temperatures towards midweek.

Aloft, ridging out west will lead to a multitude of weak short waves, initiating in the interior Canadian Plains, and progressing southeast over the Midwest. Weak dynamics over the Midwest and a lack moisture will limit precipitation chances as these waves pass. By Wednesday, the surface high pressure weakens, allowing for more moisture to advect over central Indiana. For now, PoPs are kept low for Wednesday, as confidence remains low. The next best chance for precipitation remains Thursday as a more aligned upper- level trough and surface low develops over the Midwest.

AVIATION /Discussion for 23/09Z TAF Update/.

Issued at 309 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Looking at current observations, winds have increased faster than previously discussed. Current model trends have precipitation holding off until 00Z Friday for KIND. Previous discussion follows.

VFR conditions continue at TAF sites for now. However, as the next system enters the region Thursday morning, rain and snow will start impacting the TAF sites. As a result, conditions will slowly deteriorate to MVFR levels throughout the day Thursday and eventually to IFR levels from Thursday evening through Friday morning. Meanwhile, winds will generally be south/southeasterly at 5 to 10 kts.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . White NEAR TERM . White SHORT TERM . White LONG TERM . Updike AVIATION . Updike/TDUD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN29 mi26 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds33°F19°F56%1021.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBMG

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5SE3CalmS5S4SE6SE7SE7SE7SE6S5S3SE6SE4SE8S3S3SE5SE3SE4S4SE4SE5
1 day agoN3CalmCalmNW3N4CalmCalmW3CalmCalm3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5SE6SE4
2 days agoN4N5N7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N5N3CalmCalmNW3CalmN4N5N5N4N3N5N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.