Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:31AM||Sunset 7:47PM||Monday September 20, 2021 12:41 AM EDT (04:41 UTC)||Moonrise 7:03PM||Moonset 5:57AM||Illumination 98%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, INHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KIND 200336 AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1136 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
. Updated Aviation Discussion .
Forecast Update. Issued at 937 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Late evening regional radar mosaic imagery was showing the bulk of the widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms were well south of central Indiana across central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee near a modest low level jet. This low level wind max is expected to fuel an increase in convection as it moves into central Indiana overnight. made some minor changes to PoPs overnight but keep the general trend of rain increasing in coverage and overspreading the area from north to south. Not expecting rain to come anywhere close to Flash Flood Guidance. Keep embedded thunder in but based on very weak instability with CAPEs 200 J/KG or less, do not expect a lot of lightning.
Short Term. (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Tropical remnants still remain south of Indiana, creating increased cloud cover over far southern portions of the region. A weak surface high just to the east is keeping most of the moisture away from central Indiana at this time, although this will change as tonight approaches. An unsupported upper level trough over the Plains will interact with the remnants, creating a more cold-core-like system. This will enhance the overall southerly motion, pushing a deep moisture axis northward into southern portions of the region. Rain chances will begin as early as this afternoon in SW central Indiana, as this area loses influence from the surface high and winds turn more southerly. Pwats will slowly increase throughout the afternoon and evening from S/W to N/E within strong moisture advection. Sounding analysis within this airmass indicates a nearly saturated column of air through the mid levels, which will create efficient rain producers within showers that develop. Weak instability (500- 750 J/kg) could allow for a few thunderstorms in SW central Indiana this evening into tonight, but any thunderstorms should end after sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes.
Overnight, the axis of moisture will move eastward, increasing chances of rain over eastern central Indiana. By the early morning hours, a more enhanced zone of isentropic lift within a developing trough, should increase shower development creating a more widespread area of precipitation. Showers and extensive cloud cover across all of central Indiana tonight will keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70.
A significantly more robust upper level wave will approach from the west tomorrow, eventually enveloping the weaker wave impacting the region overnight. This will further enforce the SW flow keeping moisture levels high. Zone of isentropic lift will move eastward throughout the day tomorrow, decreasing coverage of precipitation over west-central Indiana. High moisture levels and an approaching wave will still create enough of a disturbance for isolated to scattered showers over most of central Indiana. Lapse rates will remain weak, but still serviceable for an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon and evening. Shear will also inhibit updraft growth with eff bulk shear less than 30kts.
Long Term. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Tuesday through Thursday .
Clouds along with chances for showers look to be the focus of the middle of the week. The models start out on Tuesday with a cold front and an associated trough approaching Indiana . poised to push across the state through the day. Mid levels suggest a good area of moisture along and ahead of the front and pwats are suggested to be over 1.5 inches. Thus given the expected forcing will include high pops through the day to account for the passing front and moisture.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement as are the ensemble clusters for Wednesday and Thursday. Models are now agreeing to the idea of an upper low developing near the Ohio valley as the deepening upper trough slowly pushes through the Ohio Valley toward Appalachia. Extensive moisture will not be available to the upper low . but still enough is depicted for light rain chances both on Wednesday and Thursday as the low slowly is suggested to push through the area. Expected clouds associated with the low and possible rain will result in cooler highs but warmer lows.
Friday through Sunday .
ECMWF suggests strong ridging building across the western United States toward the end of the week. Meanwhile a broad trough looks to be lingering across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. This results in persistent dry . northwest flow in place across Indiana. At the surface Strong high pressure amid the NW flow is expected to settle across the Great Plains. Thus a dry but cooler and fall temperatures will be expected. We will have to keep on eye on next Saturday Night and Sunday . as the ECMWF does hint at an upper low diving into the eastern Great Lakes within the troughy flow aloft. Eventual position of the low may result in the need for pops.
Aviation. (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1135 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
IMPACTS: - VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and worse in widespread showers after 08z and first at KBMG. Would not rule out the potential for lightning at one of the terminals before 18z, but chances too low to put in the TAFs until after 18z, when the atmosphere becomes more unstable. - Winds 130-180 degrees less than 10 knots with speeds increasing to around 10 knots with gusts to near 20 knots after 18z.
DISCUSSION: Flying conditions will start off VFR, but increasing convective coverage will result in deteriorating flying conditions overnight and this morning as the remnants of Nicholas move in.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.
Update . MK Short Term . Updike Long Term . Puma Aviation . MK
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|Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN||29 mi||49 min||SE 6||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||71°F||68°F||90%||1017.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBMG
Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
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