Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deale, MD
May 14, 2024 2:42 AM EDT (06:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 10:40 AM Moonset 12:47 AM |
ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 153 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning - .
Overnight - S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat - SE winds 10 kt - .becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 153 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure approaches the waters from the west today before gradually lifting north and east with its associated cold front set to cross Wednesday into Thursday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters this afternoon through Friday.
low pressure approaches the waters from the west today before gradually lifting north and east with its associated cold front set to cross Wednesday into Thursday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters this afternoon through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 140112 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 912 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving low pressure system approaches from the west tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and below normal temperatures. Drier weather returns Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry and seasonal conditions are expected tonight as high pressure over the area moves away this evening. Overnight temperatures drop down to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. 9PM satellite loop shows clouds moving across the forecast area with some clearing in the western portions of the area. Cloud cover will fill in late tonight with cloudy skies west of I-95 and partly cloudy skies along and east of I-95 expected by sunrise.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad broad upper trough and surface low slowly track eastward across the area. Showers should be more scattered in nature, although there could be a few periods of steadier rain. Instability appears to be rather limited Tuesday, with the best chance of any thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge. If anything, there may be a better opportunity for some elevated rumbles of thunder Tuesday night. Wednesday brings greater instability across the southwestern half of the area, where there may be a better chance for some breaks of sun.
Rain chances finally decrease Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the surface low moves across eastern VA toward the Delmarva and out to sea. Some showers could linger if the upper low is slower to depart the area, particularly for those along/east of I-95.
There may be a few opportunities for locally heavier rain: (1) with southeasterly upslope flow into the central Virginia Blue Ridge on Tuesday, (2) north of the surface low track Tuesday night, and (3)
within the higher instability airmass Wednesday when flow will be light under the upper trough. Any risk of flooding appears to be marginal and dependent on multiple or prolonged periods of heavier rain. Forecast totals range from 0.50-1.00" north of US-50, and around 1-2" south toward Central Virginia. The threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be low through the period.
Widespread cloud cover and rainfall keeps daytime temperatures below normal through mid week as highs only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure and the resultant upper level trough will pivot off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday while brief mid-level ridging settles in from the central Appalachians region. This will allow for a brief reprieve in shower and thunderstorm activity before things ramp up again later in the workweek.
Unfortunately the calmer weather conditions will be short-lived with the next upper level trough and low pressure system set to approach from the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday.
With that said, model guidance continues to show subtle discrepancies in regards to to the timing of this system and placement of it's associated surface fronts across the region. Most of the recent 00z guidance suggests an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front will immediately follow this boundary Saturday into Saturday night bringing with it additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point although one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out if CAPE and shear are maximized.
Localized flooding could be the bigger concern given repetitive rounds of rain throughout the week and rich moisture flooding in along the slow moving warm front Friday into Friday night.
Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday next week. Temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will remain at or slightly below normal for the middle of May.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions expected tonight as high pressure over the area exits to the east, and an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Clouds begin to increase in coverage and lower overnight, though should remain VFR until around sunrise Tuesday.
Low MVFR to IFR CIGs quickly build in from the southwest at CHO early Tuesday morning, and eventually reach the other terminals by the afternoon. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening, with on-and-off showers continuing into Tuesday night. The low clouds, some reduced visibility due to mist and rain continue Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure moves just south of the area.
Conditions dry out on the backside of the low during the second half of the day Wednesday, but low clouds and sub-VFR conditions could continue into Wednesday night.
Southerly winds around 10 knots Tuesday turn southeast then east by Wednesday morning, northeast Wednesday afternoon, then north Wednesday night as the low pressure moves away from the area.
Sub-MVFR cigs and vsbys remain possible with any spotty shower or thunderstorm activity that looks to linger Thursday. Mid-level ridging should promote drier conditions during the late afternoon and evening as low pressure pushes further offshore. Sub-VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday as another upper level trough and series of fronts traverse the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the terminals especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly drier conditions and VFR return Sunday into Monday next week.
MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the waters tonight with winds dropping below criteria around midnight.
Peak gusts between 20-25 knots in the open waters of the bay are likely with winds blowing out of the south.
Winds diminish late tonight, though gusts between 15-18 knots are possible through Tuesday morning. South-southeast winds increase once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with another SCA likely needed for that time period. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time.
An area of low pressure will approach the region from the west late tonight, bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms to the local waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters if any strong storm capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots develops.
The area of low pressure is forecast to move across eastern VA to the Delmarva Wednesday morning, and winds are forecast to turn northeast to north and decrease on the backside of the low. However, another period of SCA winds is possible Wednesday night as northeast to north winds increase.
SCA conditions are likely Thursday into Friday as low pressure pushes offshore and weak high pressure builds in. SCA conditions will linger into the weekend as a series of fronts traverse the region. This will be the case Friday with a warm front and Saturday with a cold front set to cross the waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will also increase especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
South to southeast winds through Tuesday night will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. Expect additional minor coastal flooding at high tide over the next 24-36 hours, especially at sensitive locations in Annapolis, Otter Point, DC Waterfront, and Straits Point.
As an area of low pressure moves east of the area Wednesday, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-538- 542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 912 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving low pressure system approaches from the west tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and below normal temperatures. Drier weather returns Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry and seasonal conditions are expected tonight as high pressure over the area moves away this evening. Overnight temperatures drop down to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. 9PM satellite loop shows clouds moving across the forecast area with some clearing in the western portions of the area. Cloud cover will fill in late tonight with cloudy skies west of I-95 and partly cloudy skies along and east of I-95 expected by sunrise.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad broad upper trough and surface low slowly track eastward across the area. Showers should be more scattered in nature, although there could be a few periods of steadier rain. Instability appears to be rather limited Tuesday, with the best chance of any thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge. If anything, there may be a better opportunity for some elevated rumbles of thunder Tuesday night. Wednesday brings greater instability across the southwestern half of the area, where there may be a better chance for some breaks of sun.
Rain chances finally decrease Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the surface low moves across eastern VA toward the Delmarva and out to sea. Some showers could linger if the upper low is slower to depart the area, particularly for those along/east of I-95.
There may be a few opportunities for locally heavier rain: (1) with southeasterly upslope flow into the central Virginia Blue Ridge on Tuesday, (2) north of the surface low track Tuesday night, and (3)
within the higher instability airmass Wednesday when flow will be light under the upper trough. Any risk of flooding appears to be marginal and dependent on multiple or prolonged periods of heavier rain. Forecast totals range from 0.50-1.00" north of US-50, and around 1-2" south toward Central Virginia. The threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be low through the period.
Widespread cloud cover and rainfall keeps daytime temperatures below normal through mid week as highs only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure and the resultant upper level trough will pivot off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday while brief mid-level ridging settles in from the central Appalachians region. This will allow for a brief reprieve in shower and thunderstorm activity before things ramp up again later in the workweek.
Unfortunately the calmer weather conditions will be short-lived with the next upper level trough and low pressure system set to approach from the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday.
With that said, model guidance continues to show subtle discrepancies in regards to to the timing of this system and placement of it's associated surface fronts across the region. Most of the recent 00z guidance suggests an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front will immediately follow this boundary Saturday into Saturday night bringing with it additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point although one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out if CAPE and shear are maximized.
Localized flooding could be the bigger concern given repetitive rounds of rain throughout the week and rich moisture flooding in along the slow moving warm front Friday into Friday night.
Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday next week. Temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will remain at or slightly below normal for the middle of May.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions expected tonight as high pressure over the area exits to the east, and an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Clouds begin to increase in coverage and lower overnight, though should remain VFR until around sunrise Tuesday.
Low MVFR to IFR CIGs quickly build in from the southwest at CHO early Tuesday morning, and eventually reach the other terminals by the afternoon. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening, with on-and-off showers continuing into Tuesday night. The low clouds, some reduced visibility due to mist and rain continue Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure moves just south of the area.
Conditions dry out on the backside of the low during the second half of the day Wednesday, but low clouds and sub-VFR conditions could continue into Wednesday night.
Southerly winds around 10 knots Tuesday turn southeast then east by Wednesday morning, northeast Wednesday afternoon, then north Wednesday night as the low pressure moves away from the area.
Sub-MVFR cigs and vsbys remain possible with any spotty shower or thunderstorm activity that looks to linger Thursday. Mid-level ridging should promote drier conditions during the late afternoon and evening as low pressure pushes further offshore. Sub-VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday as another upper level trough and series of fronts traverse the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the terminals especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly drier conditions and VFR return Sunday into Monday next week.
MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the waters tonight with winds dropping below criteria around midnight.
Peak gusts between 20-25 knots in the open waters of the bay are likely with winds blowing out of the south.
Winds diminish late tonight, though gusts between 15-18 knots are possible through Tuesday morning. South-southeast winds increase once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with another SCA likely needed for that time period. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time.
An area of low pressure will approach the region from the west late tonight, bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms to the local waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters if any strong storm capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots develops.
The area of low pressure is forecast to move across eastern VA to the Delmarva Wednesday morning, and winds are forecast to turn northeast to north and decrease on the backside of the low. However, another period of SCA winds is possible Wednesday night as northeast to north winds increase.
SCA conditions are likely Thursday into Friday as low pressure pushes offshore and weak high pressure builds in. SCA conditions will linger into the weekend as a series of fronts traverse the region. This will be the case Friday with a warm front and Saturday with a cold front set to cross the waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will also increase especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
South to southeast winds through Tuesday night will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. Expect additional minor coastal flooding at high tide over the next 24-36 hours, especially at sensitive locations in Annapolis, Otter Point, DC Waterfront, and Straits Point.
As an area of low pressure moves east of the area Wednesday, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-538- 542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 18 sm | 47 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 54°F | 82% | 29.98 |
Fairhaven
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:47 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT 1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:00 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:47 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT 1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:00 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT 0.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT 0.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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