Friday, November15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:49PM Friday November 15, 2019 5:46 PM EST (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 342 Pm Est Fri Nov 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm est this evening through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late in the morning, then diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 342 Pm Est Fri Nov 15 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will wash out as it approaches the area from the west and moves into the area tonight. High pressure builds across new england this weekend, while a coastal low pressure system will lift northward offshore of the east coast over the weekend into early next week. High pressure will build across the southeast states for the middle of next week, with our area on the northern edge of the high. Another storm system is expected to develop well offshore during the middle of next week but remain well offshore of the east coast. A cold front is expected at the end of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton, DE
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location: 38.77, -75.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 152047
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
347 pm est Fri nov 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will wash out as it approaches the area from the
west and moves into the area tonight. High pressure builds
across new england this weekend, while a coastal low pressure
system will lift northward offshore of the east coast over the
weekend into early next week. High pressure will build across
the southeast states for the middle of next week, with our area
on the northern edge of the high. Another storm system is
expected to develop well offshore during the middle of next week
but remain well offshore of the east coast. A cold front is
expected at the end of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
A quiet and dry night in store as we sit sandwiched between
weather features tonight with a shortwave trough moving into the
northeast and a developing coastal storm to our south off the
carolinas. A weak cold front will drop down from the north
tonight, though moisture will be limited in the low levels so
the only noticeable effect will be a wind shift from a
northwesterly direction to a northeasterly direction. High
pressure behind this so-called cold front will quickly build
into the mid-atlantic, somewhat supressing the northern
progression of the developing coastal low to our south.

Temperatures are currently sitting in the upper 40s to near 50
in the urban corridor, but are expected to fall into the mid 30s
after sunset. A frosty morning is expected, though wind aren't
expected to drop off as much as last night, so it will tend to
be more patchy. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid to upper
20s for much of the area, with teens in the poconos and
northwest new jersey and low 30s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Saturday will start out cold but dry across the region, similar
to this morning. Clouds will linger across the southern portion
of the area from the ac expressway south as the coastal storm
continues to gather steam with the new surface low deepening off
the north carolina coast. As the storm progresses northward,
pushing against a rather strong area of high pressure moving
into new england, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to
increasing onshore flow. Winds will be most noteable along the
new jersey shore with gusts approaching 25-30 mph by mid to late
afternoon, especially from atlantic city southward. As such, a
wind advisory will be going into affect for coastal atlantic,
cape may, and sussex counties for the remainder of Saturday and
lasting into Sunday afternoon.

Highs will be cooler than today as the dry cold front slips
southward, with temperatures topping out in the 30s and 40s. The
easterly winds will make it feel about 5 to 10 degrees colder
at times.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
The main focus of the long term will continue to be the coastal
storm over the weekend into early next week. There continues to
be some differences with the track and speed of the low, which
would in turn have an effect on how far westward the
precipitation tracks and the strength of the wind inland. The
nam and canadian are farthest west and faster with the track of
the low, while the GFS and ECMWF are a little farther east and
slower. As a lot of times, the actual track may end up somewhere
between the spread of guidance. The main ideas with this storm
is that strong winds and coastal flooding will be a concern for
the new jersey and delaware coasts, with gusty winds also
inland. Precipitation may be mostly confined to the coast for
much of the event, although there is a chance some precipitation
may drift westward.

For Saturday night, the low will be located offshore of the
carolina coasts. It will then track north to northeastward
offshore of the east coast Sunday into Sunday night. With high
pressure to our north, the pressure gradient in between will be
quite tight, which is why our winds will be gusty through the
period. Eastern new jersey and southern delaware have the
greatest threat for strong winds, especially the southern new
jersey and southern delaware coasts. This is where a wind
advisory remain in effect through Sunday. The winds will begin
to weaken some overnight Sunday, but remain quite gusty. Most
precipitation will be confined to the coast, although there is
the chance some precipitation may push westward Sunday into
Sunday night. If the precipitation does push westward overnight,
there will be the chance for a wintry mix, with a chance for
freezing rain which would cause some icy conditions on untreated
surfaces.

On Monday, the low will lift to our northeast through the day.

On the back side of the low, winds will remain gusty, but not as
strong as the weekend. There may also be some wrap around
moisture affect the area as a short wave moves across the area.

This could lead to scattered showers across the area during the
day, which could also continue into the night, depending on how
fast the low lifts to the north. There will likely be enough
cold air for snow to mix in or change over to completely at
least for the poconos during the day, but many areas could see
some snow during the evening if the precipitation holds on long
enough.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, high pressure builds across the
southern states, with our area on the northern periphery.

Several surface troughs may move across the area while several
short waves vorticity impulses may move across the area as well.

This will lead to period of increasing cloud cover, as well as
a chance of isolated to scattered showers each day. Most places
should be warm enough for all rain, except the higher elevations
which may be cold enough for snow. Winds will also be gusty
during the day with gusts of 15-25 mph possible.

Another low pressure system is expected to develop well
offshore of the east coast Tuesday into Wednesday, but it is
expected to remain well offshore. It will bear watching in case
it starts to trend westward.

On Thursday, the high shifts offshore of the southeast coasts
in advance of an approaching frontal system. The weather is
expected to be dry during the day Thursday, but winds will
likely be quite gusty with winds gusting 20-30 mph at times.

A warm front front is forecast to move into the area Thursday
night as the low pressure track to our north, followed by the
cold front Friday. There is timing differences between the
guidance with the warm and cold front, but there will be a
chance of precipitation both Thursday night and Friday.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This evening and tonight...VFR with northwesterly winds from 5
to 10 knots turning northeasterly after 06z. Gusts should remain
belkow 15 knots overnight, with gusts to 20 knots possible
after 06z along the immediate coast. High confidence.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR with high clouds to the south over
delmarva and southern nj. Northeasterly winds from 10 to 15
knots and gusts to 25 knots by the afternoon. Gusts to 35 or
even 40 knots possible along the immediate coast. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR conditions most of the night, although
ceilings begin to lower to MVFR across southern new jersey and
delmarva late in the overnight and through daybreak. Gusty
northeast winds 20- 30 knots, stronger near the coast with gusts
30-40 knots possible. -- high confidence.

Sunday... Conditions likely to continue to lower to MVFR through
the day from south to north, north of an area of low pressure
lifting northward offshore of the coast. Gusty northeast winds
continue 20- 30 knots, stronger near the coast with gusts 30-40
knots possible. -- moderate confidence in ceilings, high
confidence in winds.

Sunday night... Conditions may lower to ifr to continue through
the night Sunday. Winds remain gusty 20-30 knots, shifting from
northeast early to northwest late. --moderate confidence in
ceilings, high confidence in winds.

Monday... Conditions likely begin to improve during the morning
to MVFR. Northwest winds gust 15-20 knots. --moderate confidence
in ceilings, high confidence in winds.

Monday night...VFR conditions with light winds. --high
confidence.

Tuesday...VFR conditions. West winds gust 15-20 knots. --high
confidence.

Marine
This evening and tonight... Sub SCA conditions initially with
northwesterly winds up to 20 knots turning northeasterly. Sca
conditions begin around 04z with gusts topping 25 knots. Gale
warning then beings in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Seas from 2
to 4 feet building to 5 t0 7 feet by morning.

Saturday... Gale warning in effect for the atlantic zones and
the southern delaware bay with northeast gusts to 40 knots
possible. Seas from 8 to 11 feet, especially in the southern
three atlantic zones.

Outlook...

Saturday night-Sunday... Gale warning continues. There is a
chance for storm force winds for the coastal waters from central
new jersey southward.

Sunday night... Wind will lower back to gale force then small
craft advisory levels overnight.

Monday-Monday night... Although winds lower below advisory
levels, seas will likely remain elevated through Monday night.

Tuesday... Winds and seas expected to lower below advisory
levels during the day Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Deep low pressure off the southeast and middle atlantic coasts
will maintain a strong northeast wind along the shores of
delaware and new jersey from Saturday into Sunday night. The
expected onshore flow will affect five consecutive high tide
cycles and should result in another lengthy period with the
threat of tidal flooding, similar to what occurred back around
the 10th through 12th of october.

We are anticipating widespread minor flooding with Saturday
morning's high tide in southern delaware. As a result, that area
is under a coastal flood advisory. Spotty minor flooding is
anticipated to spread into parts of southern new jersey but it
should not be impactful enough there to warrant an advisory.

We have issued a coastal flood watch for moderate flooding for
Sunday and Monday for tidal areas of delaware and new jersey
with widespread moderate flooding possible. The daytime high
tides will be the higher of the two daily high tides.

As we get closer to Sunday and Monday, a coastal flood advisory
may be issued for the tidal part of the delaware river.

Also, the latest guidance is showing minor flooding building up
into the upper part of chesapeake bay on Monday, so an advisory
may eventually become necessary along the upper eastern shore.

The strong and persistent onshore wind will likely result in
significant beach erosion along the coasts of new jersey and
delaware.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood watch from Sunday morning through Monday
afternoon for njz012>014-020>027.

Wind advisory from 6 am Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for njz024-
025.

Coastal flood watch from Sunday morning through Monday
afternoon for njz016.

De... Coastal flood watch from Sunday morning through Monday
afternoon for dez002>004.

Wind advisory from 6 am Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for dez004.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am to 2 pm est Saturday for
dez003-004.

Coastal flood watch from Sunday morning through Monday
afternoon for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Storm watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
anz452>455.

Gale warning from 3 am Saturday to 6 am est Sunday for
anz452>455.

Gale warning from 3 am Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for anz450-
451.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 6 pm est
Sunday for anz430.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 6 am est
Saturday for anz431.

Gale warning from 6 am Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for anz431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Davis
short term... Davis
long term... Robertson
aviation... Davis robertson
marine... Davis robertson
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 10 mi52 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 50°F1022.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 18 mi58 min 1022.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 23 mi52 min NW 5.1 G 6 48°F 51°F1021.6 hPa
OCSM2 32 mi166 min 1 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 33 mi52 min N 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 52°F1022.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 37 mi52 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 50°F 52°F1023 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 39 mi56 min N 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 58°F2 ft1019.9 hPa (-0.6)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi52 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 49°F1022.1 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE6 mi52 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F35°F57%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N4N6N4N4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5S8SW8SW9SW4Calm
2 days agoN7N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Roosevelt Inlet, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Roosevelt Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:42 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:07 AM EST     5.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:31 PM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3210.30.20.71.72.94.155.45.14.43.320.90.30.20.71.62.53.43.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:32 AM EST     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM EST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:12 PM EST     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:58 PM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.8-0.10.71.31.61.510.3-0.3-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.10.51.11.31.10.6

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.