Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Groveton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:14PM Sunday January 17, 2021 12:46 AM EST (05:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 9:59PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 951 Pm Est Sat Jan 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
ANZ500 951 Pm Est Sat Jan 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Multiple upper level disturbances will pass through the waters through the rest of this weekend. High pressure builds to the south of our region through the early parts of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night into Monday, and possibly once again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groveton, VA
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location: 38.77, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 170204 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 904 PM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure earlier over the Delmarva will further strengthen across New England this afternoon. High pressure will then build south of the region through the first half of next week before another potential storm system approaches the latter half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/.

The upper level trough is slowly pulling away from our region this evening. Winds out of the west to northwest are leading to drier air being advected east of the Allegheny front. Sky cover has cleared out of most areas east of the Allegheny front which should allow temps to drop down into the 20s but they will be prevented from dropping further due to winds staying elevated.


.Previous Discussion.

Within the post-frontal air mass, the column has undergone notable drying per 12-hour precipitable water trends with a decrease from 0.67 to 0.22 inches. The 12Z upper air from KIAD shows the enhancement in 850-700 mb lapse rates, indicative of the approach of lower heights upstream. The GOES-16 water vapor channels show the center of the circulation of this system over eastern Ohio with multiple embedded vortices pivoting around this low. Each of these vorticity maxima will act as an impetus toward enhanced shower activity. With low freezing levels area- wide, snow showers should be the more likely precipitation type. However, the marginal surface temperatures will preclude accumulations where current readings are in the low to mid 40s. 15 to 20 degree dewpoint depressions are noted in surface observations, but wet-bulbing effects would still keep temperatures above freezing.

Along and west of the Allegheny Front, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 4 PM this afternoon until 7 AM Sunday. This covers Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties where 2 to 4 inches of snow are likely. The current radar mosaic shows snow showers increasing in coverage over areas of western to central West Virginia. Given the steep lapse rates aloft and ample forcing with the upper trough, there is the potential for snow squalls late this afternoon into the evening hours. The 12Z ECMWF instantaneous lightning flash density product shows the slight potential for thundersnow, but its a downward trend from the 00Z solution.

Overnight temperatures will generally remain at, or below the freezing mark across the region. The usual milder spots would be within the DC and Baltimore city centers, as well as near the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay. Mountain locations can anticipate lows in upper teens to 20s, coolest where accumulating snow has occurred.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. By Sunday morning, the early weekend upper low will be positioned over Maine with a brief period of shortwave ridging over the Mid-Atlantic. Quickly on its heels will be a secondary trough set to dig through the Tennessee River Valley later in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the first half of Sunday across the region. The exception would be along and west of the Allegheny Front where conditions remain overcast with accompanying passing snow showers. As warm advection increases Sunday afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave, expect an uptick in mid to high clouds through the evening and into the overnight. This will bring another round of upslope showers to the Allegheny Front Sunday night into Monday. Another 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulations are possible with this second batch of shower activity. Across the remainder of the area, do not anticipate any of this precipitation to work its way into the I-95 corridor. Mostly cloudy skies are expected the first half of Monday, with increasing sunshine later in the day in the wake of the shortwave passage. Brisk westerly winds gusting 15 to 25 mph will occur with wind chill temperatures in the 30s. High and low temperatures will remain seasonable into early next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. General zonal flow set-up aloft looks to remain in place throughout most of next week. This will result in generally dry conditions across the area, with temperatures near seasonal averages. However given the pattern, weak pieces of shortwave energy may develop within the flow which could spark weak areas of surface low pressure during this time. As such, will see some continued chances for upslope snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front.

With that being said, two separate cold front will cross the region next week; with the first being late Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance has continued the trend of this FROPA lacking any significant moisture and thus appears to result in overcast skies for most of the CWA with upslope snow showers over the mountains.

The second FROPA is slightly more pronounced but also does not pack a significant amount of moisture which seems logical given an already cold airmass in place. However, at this time, this appears to be the next best shot at any measurable precip across the region. As a result, snow showers are likely to continue over the mountains with rain/snow showers possible throughout the remainder of the CWA depending on the exact timing of the front. Simultaneously, a strong low may develop over the South- Central US which has been indicated by guidance over the last few days. With this low being more confined in the southern stream, at this time appears to track mainly to our south Friday into Saturday.

Overall, while no largely impactful weather is expected during the long term, will have to continue to monitor the forecast trends as the pattern does appear to be slightly more variable in nature.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Clouds are clearing this evening and becoming mostly clear for all terminals with VFR conditions. Some brief periods of gusts will be possible for the MTN and BWI terminals overnight.

.Previous Discussion. As an upper low approaches from the west, a brief reduction in ceilings are possible through approximately 01Z. Additionally, some rain or snow showers may near the vicinity of the KIAD and KDCA terminals. Based on the track of the showers, most should stay south of I-70. VFR conditions are expected otherwise, and will continue into Monday. Southwest to westerly wind gusts of 10 to 15 knots are possible Sunday late morning into the early evening.

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the middle portion of next week under a westerly flow which can be gusty Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE. Increasing gradients across the region will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions from early this evening into the first half of Sunday. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots are possible over the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay. After a brief reduction in the marine winds, the potential of SCAs return on Monday into the night as the next system sweeps through the Mid-Atlantic.

Sub-SCA conditions expected for most of Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front that pushes through Tuesday night, winds will pick up out of the northwest into Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by Wednesday morning, continuing through the remainder of the day.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels remain elevated which will lead to the potential for coastal flooding at the Southwest DC Waterfront and Annapolis at high tide later this evening. Water levels should drop later tonight as northwesterly winds strengthen.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for DCZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MDZ001. VA . None. WV . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ501-505. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . BRO NEAR TERM . BRO/JMG SHORT TERM . BRO LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . MSS/BRO/JMG MARINE . MSS/BRO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 9 mi46 min W 4.1 G 6 38°F 40°F1005.4 hPa (+1.5)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi76 min W 6 37°F 1004 hPa25°F
NCDV2 31 mi46 min WSW 6 G 8.9 34°F 43°F1005.3 hPa (+1.6)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 12 38°F 42°F1003.9 hPa (+1.8)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 37 mi46 min W 18 G 21 38°F 42°F1005 hPa (+1.7)24°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 40 mi28 min WSW 12 G 14 37°F 41°F
CPVM2 41 mi46 min 39°F 25°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 6 37°F 42°F1003.3 hPa (+1.7)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi46 min WSW 14 G 16 38°F 1003.6 hPa (+1.5)
FSNM2 44 mi46 min WSW 16 G 19 37°F 1003.1 hPa (+1.6)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi46 min W 8.9 G 12 36°F 43°F1005.1 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA5 mi50 minWSW 410.00 miFair33°F24°F71%1005.7 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA8 mi54 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds35°F23°F61%1005.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD13 mi50 minWSW 910.00 miFair35°F23°F62%1005.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD18 mi51 minWSW 410.00 miFair35°F19°F52%1004.4 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA21 mi50 minW 410.00 miFair33°F28°F82%1006.3 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi50 minVar 610.00 miFair29°F28°F96%1006.2 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA22 mi54 minWSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds35°F21°F57%1004.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW6NW6NW6NW5W5W7W4W6NW11NW9NW10NW10NW6SW6W10W6W6W5W6SW6W4CalmW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE8SE9SE10SE7SE9E8E6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NW4CalmNW3SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Alexandria, Virginia
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Alexandria
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:17 AM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:46 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:39 PM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.91.30.70.2-0.2-0.20.211.82.32.52.421.40.80.3-0.1-0.20.10.81.62.22.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bellevue, D.C.
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Bellevue
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:46 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:25 AM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:47 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.621.40.80.3-0.1-0.20.10.91.72.32.62.52.11.50.90.4-0-0.200.71.52.22.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.