Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Groveton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 29, 2021 4:56 AM EDT (08:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 10:49AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 435 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Today..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area today before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groveton, VA
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location: 38.77, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290815 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach the area today into tonight. High pressure will build in for Friday into this weekend, bringing drier and cooler conditions. Another system may impact the area Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Latest analysis depicts a weak stationary front straddled northwest to southeast across the area. A stronger front and low pressure is located over the Great Lakes, with the low heading east and the front progressing southeast. Aloft, a weak shortwave is passing to the east with a second stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes. This is all embedded within a dominant northwest flow as a longwave trough remains to our northeast, and a ridge sits over the central Plains.

Showers early this morning associated with the departing shortwave should dissipate shortly. The clouds and increased moisture over the region have kept temps in the higher 60s to lower 70s. This relatively high starting point will give us a boost, but clouds moving in from the MCS to our northwest will start overspreading the area this morning. This MCS likely will greatly affect our severe weather threat today as the strong shortwave and cold front moves into the region. If the MCS impact is minimal, with cloud cover relatively thin and brief and minimal if any showers, then our odds of a significant severe weather outbreak will be quite high thanks to ample CAPE combined with the high shear moving overhead. However, if the MCS holds together more and we have extended cloud cover and more showers/weakening storms, the high CAPE component will be harder to come by, which could potentially significantly damper the severe weather potential. Will need to watch progress of the system closely. Right now, areas least likely to be affected by the morning MCS appear to be the Baltimore area and points north and east, where an enhanced risk of severe weather is now in place from the SPC. This risk tapers to slight and then marginal further south and west, where the MCS influence is likely to be more substantial. Highs likely reach the mid-upper 80s, perhaps with spotty 90s, with higher temps of course more likely to fuel stronger storms later today. Best timing for storms looks to be very late afternoon and evening across the metro, assuming the MCS doesn't disrupt CAPE too much.

Tonight, front doesn't actually move through until very late, so while shower/storm coverage will dwindle with loss of heating, some chance of showers and storms will linger until the front actually passes. Lows stay mild with the front not yet thru until very late, with readings mostly in the higher 60s to 70s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. First front clears the CWA early Friday morning, with gusty northwest flow taking hold. Initially, air mass temperature doesn't change, just the dew points, so it will be very warm but with lower humidity and a gusty northwest wind. Compressional heating on the downslope flow likely brings temps near 90 once again.

Second front drops south across the region Friday night. This will bring a cooler air mass with it, but otherwise no weather change of significance, with no moisture to work with and little forcing. Lows will drop into the 50s in many areas, with low- mid 60s in the rest of the area.

Saturday will be considerably cooler under Canadian high pressure, but with lighter winds. Dew points drop further, with readings potentially dropping into the upper 40s. This all will combine to create a decidedly un-summerlike last day of July.

Wave of low pressure starts to bring moisture back north Saturday night, with increasing clouds and a chance of showers late at night. Lows will stay mostly in the 60s thanks to the returning clouds.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Come Sunday, a shortwave trough will have ejected out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across Ohio and Pennsylvania. The front may not pass through the FA until Sunday night, but given a southerly return flow and modest instability ahead of the front, cannot rule out showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance hint at a weak coastal low forming Sunday in North Carolina and moving northeast towards the lower Chesapeake Bay. There could be slightly greater coverage of precip across southern Maryland late Sunday if this area of low pressure develops.

Once the front clears the FA Sunday night, the front stalls near the North Carolina / Virginia border as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. High pressure will build into the region Monday.

An H5 trough builds over the Ohio Valley late Monday and remains nearly stationary through midweek as multiple shortwaves round the base of the trough providing multiple opportunities for at least isolated/scattered precip. The broad trough could form into an upper- level closed low, as depicted by some guidance. Late Tuesday into Wednesday could be a time period of more widespread precip as an area of coastal low pressure forms and moves northeast towards the Mid Atlantic seaboard, though uncertainty remains on the track of this feature and if it will come to fruition.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Generally VFR thru Saturday night. Main concern will be scattered showers and storms which may result in brief sub-VFR conditions along with gusty winds later today into tonight. High pressure returning Friday will bring a gusty northwest wind, with lighter winds under high pressure on Saturday.

South/southwest winds ahead of the front Sunday with primarily VFR conditions. Can have brief MVFR restrictions in any showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions Monday as high pressure builds in with the winds becoming northwest.

MARINE. Increasing southerly channeling today will result in SCA conditions by this afternoon, mainly over the bay. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later today into tonight, which may necessitate SMW's. Front pushes southeast early on Friday, with widespread SCA conditions on northwest flow in its wake. A second surge of SCA winds may occur Friday night as a second front passes. Winds relax Saturday through Saturday night under high pressure.

Winds remain below SCA levels at 10-15 knots out of the south/southwest Sunday before backing out of the northwest Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly flow ahead of an appraoching cold front will result in some locations reaching action stage through Thursday night. Minor flooding is most likely to occur at the most sensitive sites, such as Annapolis. As the winds become northwest behind the front on Friday, the anomalies will decrease.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531>533-539>541. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ537.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . CPB AVIATION . RCM/CPB MARINE . RCM/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 9 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 75°F 84°F1015.1 hPa (-1.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi86 min S 1.9 68°F 1015 hPa67°F
NCDV2 31 mi56 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 86°F1014.8 hPa (-0.3)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi56 min ESE 5.1 G 8 77°F 85°F1014.8 hPa (-0.9)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 37 mi56 min ESE 12 G 14 76°F 81°F1016.1 hPa (-0.8)72°F
44063 - Annapolis 38 mi38 min SE 9.7 G 12 75°F 82°F1 ft1015.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 40 mi44 min SE 14 G 18 74°F 82°F2 ft1016 hPa
CPVM2 41 mi56 min 77°F 70°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi56 min SSW 1 G 4.1 76°F 84°F1014.8 hPa (-0.5)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi56 min SSE 6 G 7 76°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.5)
FSNM2 44 mi56 min SE 6 G 8 76°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi56 min SE 9.9 G 11 77°F 1015.5 hPa (-1.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi56 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 83°F1015.2 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA5 mi60 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist71°F70°F97%1015.4 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA8 mi64 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1015.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD13 mi60 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F71°F99%1015.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD18 mi81 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F68°F88%1015.2 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA21 mi60 minSE 96.00 miOvercast with Haze76°F70°F82%1015.2 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi60 minWNW 38.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F70°F100%1015.9 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA22 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair70°F67°F90%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmNW3NW4NW8NW8N5W11
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CalmNW6N3SE5SE5CalmSE5N4SE3CalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4CalmCalmNW5S6S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmCalmW3W7N6E5SE9SE6N8E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Alexandria, Virginia
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Alexandria
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:03 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.12.82.21.61.10.70.40.511.72.42.832.82.31.71.10.60.30.30.71.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bellevue, D.C.
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Bellevue
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.22.92.41.81.20.80.50.40.91.72.42.93.132.51.81.20.70.40.30.61.32.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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