Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Groveton, VA

KEY MESSAGES
-1) Heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorms will slide southeastward across the region during the early morning hours Monday.

-2) An elevated fire danger threat for portions of the area Monday with gusty northwest winds. Cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

-3) Rain chances return with a cold front Thursday and Friday.
Canadian high pressure builds over the region this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorms will slide southeastward across the region during the early morning hours Monday.

Over the past few hours, a wide band of heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorms have developed across central and western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and western parts of Virginia. The main threats with this activity will be occasional lightning, brief downpours, and wind gusts within thunderstorms of 40 to 50 mph. The severe threat has diminished since last evening. At this point, the areas that seem to be more probable of getting one of these strong thunderstorms is the I-81 corridor from Winchester to Staunton.

We'll need to continue to watch this band and any further development ahead of or along it. Aside from this convection, northwest to north winds are expected to gust 20 to 30 mph during this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An elevated fire danger threat for portions of the area Monday with gusty northwest winds. Cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gusty post frontal west to northwest flow behind a departing strong cold front that will take over Monday as the front sinks south. Winds will gust between 25 to 35 mph with locally higher gusts along the ridges. Cool air advection will also ensue with a 20 to 30 degree departure in high temperatures compared to Sunday. Highs Monday will still be a couple degrees above normal in the 50s and low 60s (40s mountains). Expect minimum relative humidity values to fall into the 25 to 40 percent range across the region. The lowest values of note will be over central VA and the Shenandoah Valley where an elevated risk of wildfire spread (potentially near Red Flag conditions) may be observed.
This is due to ongoing drought, limited rainfall with the front, gusty winds, and low relative humidity values (see fire discussion for more details).

Continued dry conditions are expected Monday night, with winds gradually decreasing, and temperatures dropping back into the 20s and lower 30s. High pressure builds overhead on Tuesday, leading to light winds, mostly sunny skies, and below normal temperatures.
Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most. Lows Tuesday night fall back into the low to mid 30s.

High pressure slides offshore Wednesday yielding temps back into the 50s and 60s. Look for a bit more cloud cover as a warm front/shortwave trough sit nearby. Any precip chances hold off until late week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Rain chances return with a cold front Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds over the region this weekend.

Looking at dry conditions continuing for most through at least Thursday. Temperatures will moderate during this time with a warm front nearby and a subtle shortwave pulsing through. These two features may touch off some light rain showers over the mountains and far northern portions of the forecast area. Confidence in this still remains low given ample dry air leftover in the low levels with high pressure close enough offshore.

Meanwhile, surface low pressure will work across the St. Lawrence Valley toward the Canadian Maritimes Friday. This will shove a cold front southward into the region. The front will be slow to cross Friday due to the placement of the low up over eastern Canada and an incumbent deepening trough/low ejecting east from Mid-South. The front will sag southward as a cold front Friday evening into Friday night while becoming parallel to the upper level flow.

With that said, some model spread remains per the latest 00z guidance in regards to timing, placement of surface features, temperatures, and rain amounts late week. Thus the position of this potentially wavering frontal zone may have some impacts on temperatures Thursday and Friday, though they should be near or above normal. Rain chances will peak Thursday night into Friday, with the frontal zone likely south of the area by Saturday morning.
Frontal moisture should depart before it becomes cold enough to snow, except perhaps in the Alleghenies.

Canadian high pressure will build into the Ohio River Valley Saturday before shifting overhead Saturday night into Sunday. This will lead to below normal temperatures Saturday with a slight moderation Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Winds will shift out of the northwest and north today behind a cold front. Showers and embedded thunder have developed on the north side of the front and are pushing through MRB and within the next 1 to 3 hours, the other terminals could encounter brief reductions in ceilings and visibility. Conditions will improve back to VFR by mid- later this morning as wind pick up out of the northwest. Gusts to around 25-30 knots will be possible through this afternoon.

VFR conditions persist tonight through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing tonight, and then eventually becoming very light to calm on Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. VFR conditions are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure departs.

VFR conditions are expected with high pressure through Thursday morning. southerly winds may gust to around 20 kts on Thursday as a low pressure system passes well to the north. A cold front may bring sub-VFR ceilings and rain chances Thursday night into Friday.
Northwesterly winds may turn gusty behind the front on Friday. No aviation hazards this weekend with Canadian high pressure building overhead.

MARINE
Winds will continue out of the northwest and north through tonight. SCA gusts will develop and continue through today into tonight. Lighter winds are expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead.

Southwest winds may begin to increase Wednesday and Wednesday night high pressure departs. However, advisory level winds may hold off until Thursday as a low pressure system passes well north of the area. The associated cold front will cross the area Friday, with advisories potentially needed in the northwest flow in its wake. No marine hazards this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Winds will increase out of the northwest behind a cold front today. Gusts to around 30 mph appear likely through much of the day today, as relative humidity values drop into the 30s, and potentially even upper 20s in spots. Temperatures today are forecast to be considerably cooler, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s for most (40s mountains). Another Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather danger may need to be considered for portions of the forecast area today, with central Virginia likely experiencing the worst fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE
Record daily high temperatures are possible on Sunday (March 22).
Below is a list of records for the date.

Site Record/Year Set DCA 90/1907 BWI 86/1907 IAD 83/1968 DMH 79/1955 NAK 82/1948 HGR 88/1907 MRB 84/1966 CHO 92/1907

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>543.