Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lewes, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:36PM Friday April 10, 2020 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 405 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 405 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. An area of low pressure will drift through eastern canada through the weekend, while high pressure builds across the deep south today and Saturday, before moving offshore Saturday night. Our area will remain under a tight pressure gradient between these two features today through the weekend. A strengthening low pressure system will move across the mid west states Sunday night, then into the great lakes region Monday and into southern canada Monday night. This will lift an occluding frontal system across the mid atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another system could affect portions of the mid atlantic region around Wednesday, with a clipper type system around Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewes, DE
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location: 38.78, -75.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 100800 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will drift through eastern Canada through the weekend, while high pressure builds across the deep south today and Saturday, before moving offshore Saturday night. Our area will remain under a tight pressure gradient between these two features today through the weekend. A strengthening low pressure system will move across the Mid West states Sunday night, then into the Great Lakes region Monday and into southern Canada Monday night. This will lift an occluding frontal system across the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another system could affect portions of the Mid Atlantic region around Wednesday, with a clipper type system around Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. *Update coming between 4:30-5:00 am*

Strong low pressure slowly begins departing into the Canadian maritimes on Friday. Not surprisingly with a sub-970mb low to our northeast and high pressure building in out of the Plains and Midwest, it will be a windy day with such a strong gradient in place. If nothing else, it looks to be a "consistent" day with fairly similar conditions both spatially and temporally during the daylight hours. Main question on this shift was whether it would be windy enough for an advisory (gusts > 45mph). Looking over BUFKIT, fairly good consistency in wind profiles among models. We will likely mix to around 750mb during the day. This combined with the wind profiles suggests potential for 40 to 50 mph gusts, and it looked convincing enough to go ahead with another wind advisory for the daylight hours Friday. Either way, it will be a noticeably windy day. Gusts should start to gradually diminish during the late afternoon and especially evening.

Expecting a mainly dry day, though likely a lot of stratocu especially to the northwest as is typical in northwest flow/cold advection regimes. A bit of additional shortwave energy comes through during the day, especially in the morning hours. A spotty shower is possible in the northwestern zones, but coverage will be less than it will be overnight. It may still be cold enough for some of the showers to fall as snow especially early. Highs well below normal for the date with 850mb temperatures around -5C. Highs mainly in the low 50s with some 40s to the north.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. *Update coming between 4:30-5:00 am*

By Sunday, the high will drift out to sea, while return flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will warm quite a bit on Sunday as compared to Saturday. There will be a slight chance of showers on Sunday as a couple of weak short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area, but the main action moves in Sunday night into Monday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The main focus for the long term forecast will be Sunday night into Monday. An area of low pressure will move across the Mid- West states and into the Great Lakes area Sunday night, before lifting into southern Canada on Monday. This will lift an occluding frontal system across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Rainfall is expected to begin overnight Sunday, then continue into Monday, before ending later Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the cold front pushes offshore. Several concerns are beginning to take shape with this system. The first will be the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall overnight Sunday into Monday morning. 1-2 inches of rain will be possible, with the heaviest rainfall expected for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern/central New Jersey. Latest model guidance indicates that there will be some instability developing during day ahead of the approaching cold front, so there will be a chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms would mostly be confined to daytime hours Monday. This leads to the next concern, which may be the greatest threat. Low level winds with this system are forecast to increase significantly with 925-850 mb winds potentially increasing to 50-70+ knots. Not all of these winds would mix down to the surface, however, we will likely have some decent mixing overnight Sunday into Monday, so we do expect a very windy overnight Sunday into Monday period. We can expect at least 40-50 mph winds, especially for south and eastern New Jersey, and central and southern Delaware and Maryland where the strongest winds are expected.

The front will have moved offshore by Monday afternoon/Monday evening. Gusty winds will continue night into Tuesday, before beginning to relax overnight Tuesday. There will be a slight chance of showers Tuesday as a couple of short waves/vorticity impulse move across the area.

There continues to be some disagreement with the long term models in how they handle a potential coastal storm developing along the old cold front offshore of the east coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.. The ECMWF is much more aggressive strengthening the low moving it offshore of the Mid- Atlantic and bringing rain or even snow to portions of the area. The GFS and Canadian suppresses the system and keep rain away from the area. We will have a chance of showers due the uncertainty, but no more than 40 to 50 percent across southern New Jersey and southern Delaware and Maryland.

There is better agreement with a possible clipper type system affecting the area around Wednesday night into Thursday. This could bring a chance of rain, or even snow showers to portions of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure is forecast to briefly build into the area late Thursday, before another potential storm at the end of the week.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . Mainly VFR. However, CIGs of 3500-6000 feet may develop at RDG, ABE, and the Philly terminals at times. West to northwest winds 10 to 20+ kt with gusts 25-35 kt. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, though CIGs of 3500-6000 feet will likely encompass much of the area today. West to northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts 30-40+ kt likely. Moderate confidence.

Friday night . VFR with west to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, especially during the evening. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . VFR with west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, likely diminishing slowly by late afternoon. High confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR with winds becoming light southerly or southeasterly. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Increasing cloudiness with south winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt by afternoon. Mainly VFR, but conditions may approach MVFR late. Low confidence.

Sunday night-Monday . A frontal system will move across the area leading to periods of moderate to heavy rain, along with MVFR to IFR conditions likely, improving during the day Monday. Very wind conditions are likely to develop overnight Sunday into Monday, with gusts potentially reaching 35-45 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday night-Tuesday . VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds gusting to 20-30 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Gales continue on the Atlantic waters and Delaware Bay today. West to northwest winds of 20 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt are likely. Conditions should slowly improve tonight but will likely exceed gale criteria through most of the night. The gale warning continues through 6 am Saturday.

Seas will generally range from 3 to 6 feet.

Outlook .

Saturday . Advisory conditions likely with west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. However, conditions will improve with time and possibly become sub-advisory by evening.

Saturday night . Sub-advisory winds/seas anticipated.

Sunday . South winds will increase rapidly, likely reaching advisory criteria by afternoon. Seas are expected to approach/exceed 5 feet late in the day as well.

Sunday night-Monday . A frontal system will move across the area, leading to very strong winds across the waters. At least Gale force gusts are expected, with potentially Storm force winds possible late Sunday night into Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday . Gale force winds could continue into early Monday night, before lowering to Small Craft Advisory levels overnight into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER. Windy conditions will occur again today. This will allow the low levels to mix readily, with dew points likely dropping to the upper teens to lower 20s. This will result in relative humidity values dropping to near or below 30 percent in most locations outside the southern Poconos. As a result, the threat for the rapid spread of fires is quite high today, and a Special Weather Statement has been issued in coordination with our fire-weather partners.

Conditions will not improve on Saturday. Although winds will likely be lower, relative humidity values will also likely be lower than values seen today. As a result, the threat for the rapid spread of fires will be high again.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for PAZ060>062-101-103-105. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NJZ001-007>010. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. DE . Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004. MD . Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.



Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . Robertson Aviation . CMS/Robertson Marine . CMS/Robertson Fire Weather . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 0 mi50 min WNW 22 G 25 47°F 53°F999.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 14 mi62 min WNW 19 G 24 999.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 16 mi50 min WNW 19 G 24 45°F 52°F998.7 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 31 mi30 min W 23 G 29 47°F 51°F5 ft995.8 hPa (+1.5)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 31 mi56 min NW 9.9 G 14 47°F 52°F1001.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 39 mi50 min WNW 28 G 34 45°F 998.5 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE14 mi26 minWNW 610.00 miFair45°F27°F49%1000.1 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ20 mi24 minW 13 G 2110.00 miFair45°F30°F56%999.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4W9
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2 days agoSW4SW3SW3CalmE3NE6SE5SE7S8S7SE8W7W6SW4W4S5SW3S6SW4SW6S74S6S3

Tide / Current Tables for Breakwater Harbor, Delaware
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Breakwater Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:59 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:14 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:36 PM EDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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53.92.30.8-0.4-0.8-0.40.51.83.14.14.64.43.72.51.1-0-0.5-0.20.71.93.44.65.3

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:44 AM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:29 AM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:02 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:47 PM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.7-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.5-0.70.31.21.81.81.30.5-0.3-1-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.70.21.11.821.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.