Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lewes, DE

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Cloudy, showery, drizzly, and humid conditions expected through the entire weekend along with below normal temperatures.
Overall, nothing of particular interest to note as far as impacts go with the convective activity in our region, however the lousy conditions won't be good news for any outdoor activities.

Quasi zonal and relatively weak flow will continue to prevail aloft, though we will remain in the vicinity of the right entrance region of a zonal jet toward our northeast. This will provide a prolonged period of modest ascent through tonight, which will lead to prevailing cloudy skies and periods of showery weather. At the surface, a stalled to slowly moving frontal boundary will remain in place across Delmarva into Virginia. Weak low pressure will slide offshore today, then surface ridging will strengthen some into tonight, which should push the frontal boundary a little farther south (south of our area completely).

As far as precipitation chances go, not great confidence through tonight regarding any details of timing and coverage.
There will be a lot of mesoscale factors at play. Showers and any storms will be directly influenced by the remnants of whatever happens upstream to our west and southwest. With that said, the daytime today, perhaps focused in the first half of the day, looks to have the highest probability of measurable rain for the entire weekend, though there will be chances of showers through the period. PWats will be high (1.5-2.0"), so any robust and persistent convection that can develop will be capable of locally heavy rainfall.

The forcing from the aforementioned jet streak to our northeast appears to maximize around mid to late morning, then wanes into the afternoon. So anticipate the maximum coverage of showers and any storms in our area to be focused around that time. Later into the afternoon, more diurnally driven convection should develop within the vicinity of the frontal boundary to our west and southwest. Some additional shower activity could impact our area from that activity, especially in our western and southwestern zones (SE PA into Delmarva). The latest CAMs tend to support this general evolution as well. We should get a lull in shower activity overnight due to lack of forcing and strengthening surface ridging, though cannot rule out some stray showers. Drizzle may develop across the coastal plain overnight as well.

Our southern and western most areas remain highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall by WPC for at least a 5% risk of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. The severe risk is low overall, and we are not currently outlooked by SPC.
Lightning is certainly possible with any stronger cells though.

For temperatures, highs will be mainly in the mid 60s to 70s.
The 70 degree line looks to extend from around Reading southeast into the Philly metro, then southeast toward Ocean County.
Northeast of there will be stuck in the 60s all day with 70s to the southwest. Southern Delaware and portions of the eastern shore of Maryland near the front could get into the low 80s briefly. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Gradual improvement thru the period with periods of showers/tstms Sunday/Sunday which will end from North to South Monday. Fair weather expected Monday night. Temperatures largely below normal with abundant clouds Sunday. Highs upper 60s/low 70s and lows in the 50s across the north and 60s further S/E.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A upper ridge will remain across the Southeast U.S. while a trough across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest remains in place into midweek before getting pushed to the east. This means that unsettled conditions will be across the Middle Atlantic Tuesday thru Thursday with a chance for showers or tstms each day.
Lower pops for Friday and into the start of next weekend as the disturbance gets pushed offshore and high pressure starts to build in from the north.

Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday, but then milder conditions with above normal temps Wed thru Sat. Readings on Thursday will be well above normal with low 90s common across much of southern NJ, metro Philadelphia and Delmarva. Across N/W counties, mid/upper 80s are the expected highs.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR ceilings possibly developing early, though prevailing MVFR ceiling expected for most terminals outside of ACY. MVFR visibilities in showers, mainly before 18Z. Smoke from a wildfire in southern NJ has been impacting PHL and ILF this morning with visibility restrictions. Otherwise, mainly prevailing VFR visibility. Some lightning is possible, though this should be isolated and brief in nature at best. A few terminals could briefly scatter out to VFR by 21Z or so, but low confidence in this occurring. East northeast winds increasing to near 10 knots. Low confidence on the timing/details, but high confidence in prevailing restrictions.

Tonight...IFR ceilings likely developing, with some LIFR possible. Fog development is possible as well, but lower confidence on this. Northeast winds 5-10 kts. High confidence in prevailing IFR, but low confidence on details.

Outlook...

Sunday thru Monday night... Lower CIGs /VSBYs at times with scattered showers/tstms at times.

Tuesday/Wednesday... VFR mostly but scattered showers/tstms during the afternoon hours may bring restrictions.

MARINE
An area of locally dense fog remains across portions of the coastal waters from southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Delaware Bay. Visibility should begin to improve after dawn, and a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect and was extended until noon to highlight this threat. This advisory was also expanded north to include the coastal waters of Ocean County NJ.

Conditions will remain below advisory criteria through today, although winds and seas will build, especially into the afternoon. By this evening and overnight, seas will build to near 3-5 feet across the Atlantic waters, and northeast winds will increase to 15- 20 kts with gusts near 25 kts possible north of Atlantic City. The stronger winds and seas will be near and especially north of Atlantic City, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 6 PM this evening through noon Sunday. Periods of showers possible through the daytime, with a lull expected tonight.

Outlook...

Sub-SCA most of the time. Scattered showers/tstms Sunday/Monday. More showers Tue/Wed, but mostly during the afternoon/early evening.

Rip Currents...

For today, northeast winds will increase through the day to around 15-20 mph by late afternoon, but will be lighter through midday. Breaking wave heights remain around 1-2 feet with a continued weak southeasterly swell around 1 foot at 9-10 seconds in length. Will maintain a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches given light winds and low breaking wave heights.

For Sunday, stronger onshore flow will remain with a 15-20 mph northeast wind. Wave heights increase to around 2 to 3 feet or higher and with multiple swell groups in the surf zone, there will be a MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ430-431-451>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452.