Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Easton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:50 PM EST (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:19PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 240 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
This afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow through the day, then rain or snow likely through the night.
ANZ500 240 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the region will shift offshore today. A low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Easton, MD
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location: 38.78, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 121424 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 924 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region today, moving offshore tonight. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week. Another low pressure system will approach the region Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

930 update: No major changes to previous forecast.

Previous discussion:

Highs today will slowly warm through the morning and based on mixing we should see temps in the mid to upper 30s across the region which generally on the colder side of MOS guidance except for the urban corridor where MOS guidance increases temps into the low 40s. Under strong cold air advection and building heights I just dont think we'll get into the low 40s. The hourly LAMP guidance only gets to 37 which feels like a more accurate forecast.

Through the day today the winds should veer around from the northeast to the southeast and as is the habit for these type onshore flows, we'll start to see a marine layer develop. The clouds wont arrive until the overnight hours but we should start to feel some increased humidity especially along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. High pressure should crest early in day Thursday and will begin to push offshore this evening. Once the high pushes offshore the aforementioned marine layer will start to push onshore in the form of some low level stratus. Almost out of a force of habit I've increased cloud cover to overcast by midnight which should dampen how quickly temps fall this evening. The idea is that we should only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s in the urban corridor. The high res guidance is continuing to converge on the idea that some light precip will start to lift into the region as well so I've included mention of some very light rain across DelMarVa and parts of southern New Jersey heading into early Friday morning. As the day shift mentioned yesterday, there should be abundant dry air initially so while there may be visible precipitation, the dry air at the surface may be just enough to cause the rain not to reach the ground until later in the day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The high moves into the Canadian maritimes Friday leaving our area in east to southeast return flow. With the easterly flow setting up, some moisture will work its way into the region Friday morning. Just how fast the moisture arrives is still questionable and it may hold off long enough for temps to warm. However, there continues to be guidance showing the moisture making it in while temps are still below freezing so have mentioned some freezing rain during the morning, which would be mainly confined to the southern Poconos portions of the Lehigh Valley, and the elevations of northern New Jersey. With uncertainty related to the onset of any precipitation, confidence is too low to raise any kind of winter weather advisories so will hold off on that for now. Temperatures should rise through the morning with the forecast area expected to rise above freezing by early afternoon.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track up the southeast coast and up into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will intensify as it pushes northward and will bring rain to the region. The ground is pretty sodden from the rain earlier in the week and with PWATs climbing around 1.0-1.3" on Saturday, we should see some decent rains again and it may be heavy at times. While right now it doesn't look like we will see enough rain to cause any big flooding concerns (generally 1.0-1.5" across the region), there may be some localized issues, especially in areas where there is poor drainage and/or where the leaves may be clogging the storm drains.

A considerable amount of warm air will move up through the region with temps expected to warm Friday night. 850mb temps of around 10C are warm for this time of year and expect we see temps rise into the 40s and 50s on Friday with temps expected to be slightly warmer on Saturday.

The low deepens as it tracks to the north and into New England by late Saturday, continuing to push towards Newfoundland by early Sunday. The precipitation clears out early on Sunday, giving way to dry conditions. The pressure gradient will tighten up and Sunday looks to be a pretty windy day with gusts potentially around 25 to 30 mph across the region.

Another low pressure system will develop to our southwest and move towards our region on Monday. The low looks to start bringing some precipitation to the region as early as later Monday and continuing into Tuesday before exiting off to the east. There are some phasing and timing issues between the various models which impact the amount of warm air vs colder air moving through with the precipitation, which would impact the precipitation type. For now will keep things simple and go with rain/snow until more details can come into focus over the coming days. For Wednesday, an upper trough will swing through the region as surface high pressure starts to build in from the west. Temperatures look to turn colder for midweek.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . VFR at all terminals with light northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies.

Thursday . VFR with light winds less than 7 knots become northeasterly as high pressure moves offshore. Late in the afternoon the high pressure system will be far enough east to allow for a return of southerly flow at KRDG/ KABE.

Thursday night . Generally VFR ceilings with the potential for MVFR ceilings as a marine stratus layer pushes onshore overnight. Winds remain light and variable under 7 knots

Outlook .

Friday..MVFR conditions expected early and then MVFR or lower conditions will develop across the terminals as rain moves into the region. Light easterly winds. Moderate confidence

Friday night through Saturday . MVFR/IFR or lower conditions expected in rain with the rain being heavy at times. East winds around 8 to 12 knots veering to the south Saturday morning and then to the southwest Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible. Moderate confidence

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Rain/snow may move into the terminals by late morning/early afternoon. West to northwest winds less than 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. SCA conditions should dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning as High pressure crests over the region. Winds will relax through the day today gradually veer through the day ultimately becoming more easterly-southeasterly by Friday morning. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through the period.

Outlook .

Friday . Increasing winds and building seas expected, especially later in the day, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the daytime hours. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots and seas generally around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday night through Saturday . East winds will continue to increase Friday evening into Saturday. Seas will build to 5 feet by Saturday morning, and continue to build to 5 to 7 feet through the day. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

Saturday night through Sunday . West winds around 15 to 25 knots with gale force gusts possible on Sunday. Seas around 5 to 7 feet will gradually subside to near 5 feet by later Sunday.

Monday . Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by early Monday morning and will drop to around 1 to 3 feet through the day. Some 25 knot gusts may occur early Monday but expect winds to be out of the northwest around 10 to 15 knots through the day.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis/Haines Near Term . Carr/Deal Short Term . Deal Long Term . Davis Aviation . Haines Marine . Carr/Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 14 mi56 min NE 4.1 G 6 37°F 44°F1039.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi50 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 44°F1040.3 hPa (-2.0)15°F
CPVM2 22 mi50 min 35°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi44 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 1040.3 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 24 mi26 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 45°F1040.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi50 min 36°F 1039 hPa (-2.1)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 31 mi56 min W 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 44°F1039.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi140 min SSE 1.9 39°F 1040 hPa18°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 38 mi50 min E 4.1 G 6 35°F 47°F1039.1 hPa (-2.3)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 39 mi56 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 42°F1039.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi50 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 34°F 1039.4 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi62 min E 8 G 9.9 33°F 1038.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 43 mi56 min S 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 46°F1038.9 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD2 mi2 hrsENE 310.00 miClear37°F15°F41%1041.3 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD17 mi55 minESE 510.00 miFair39°F17°F42%1039.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD19 mi55 minW 310.00 miFair36°F17°F48%1039.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Easton Point, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Easton Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:11 AM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:22 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.9110.80.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-00.51.11.622.221.81.410.60.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:31 AM EST     0.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     1.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.40.40.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.711.21.10.80.4-0.1-0.6-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.