Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 4:00 AM   Moonset 5:40 PM

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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 136 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue - NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KLWX 061419 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active weather pattern will continue throughout this week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may contain heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. A strong cold front looks to cross the region Thursday into Friday bringing an increased threat for flooding and severe weather. Decreasing rain chances and cooler conditions are expected as high pressure returns this weekend.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dense Fog Advisories have been allowed to expire as of 10am this morning. Pockets of one to four mile visibility values will remain in and along the I-95 corridor and down into the central VA Piedmont through noon today. Fog and stratus have been slow to lift given the abundant moisture in the low levels. PWATS are running 1.3 inches on the 12z KIAD sounding and 1.1" on the KRNK sounding signifying the very moist airmass overhead.

Fog and stratus should continue mix out through midday as light south to southwesterly flow takes over. This will allow for an uptick in temperatures with afternoon highs pushing back into the mid to upper 70s and low 80s. Cloud bases will lift, but the overall sky coverage will remain mostly cloudy to overcast given the approaching shortwave trough from the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley.

This disturbance will slowly drift east across the mountains this afternoon before pushing toward the coast this evening and into the first half of the overnight period. 12z hi-res CAM guidance continues to highlight the 19-00z/3pm-8pm window for the best convective development. The HRRR/NAM seem to be the most aggressive with convective development especially in areas along and south of I-66/US-50 as the vort axis and max PVA cross during the peak heating period. The 12z ARW/NSSL are slightly less, but show a similar theme of numerous showers and thunderstorms starting west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and drifting east into the metros this evening.

The severe weather threat today appears to be low given the poor low level lapse rates, deep saturation, and low shear (0-6km shear less than 20 kts). MLCAPE values will range between 500-1000 j/kg north of I-66 with 1000-1500 j/kg further south where a few breaks in the clouds may occur. This is the area where one or two strong pulse type thunderstorms look to occur with a brief gusts of wind, small hail, and heavy rain as the primary concerns.

The bigger concern this evening will be heavy rainfall with a weak surface trough extending west to east across the area. This trough combined with slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could lead to one or two instances of localized flash flooding. One thing working into our favor is the recent week of dry weather and the limited amount of rainfall over the weekend. Even with that said, PWATS of 1.25-1.7 inches this afternoon and evening will yield efficient rain producers out of any loosely organized convection especially where the weak surface trough sets up.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should keep going through the first half of the night as the shortwave trough drifts eastward across the area. Patchy fog may again be possible during the second half of the night. Lows overnight tonight should generally be in the low-mid 60s, with upper 50s in the mountains. Dewpoint values will remain in the 60s leading to a muggy feel.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Conditions will remain unsettled heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Decaying convection from the Ohio Valley may also potentially impact the area during the overnight hours Tuesday night. Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs reaching into the mid-upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front will approach the region by Thursday, ushering in an abundance of moisture to the Mid-Atlantic. Instability ahead of the frontal passage continues to be elevated, this may lead to some isolated instances of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Along with the limited severe threat is the isolated threat for flooding in areas that receive higher rainfall totals Thursday coupled with previously received rainfall over the last few days before. Uncertainty is still present with this system, especially with respect to timing and potential impacts. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for most lower elevations with upper 60s for the mountains.

Soon after the frontal passage on Friday, lingering low-level moisture will probably stick around. Will keep elevated PoPs Friday before lessening for the weekend with just normal springtime precipitation and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon hours. High temperatures will slowly increase behind the front and into early next week, with 60s by Saturday eventually rising to the low to mid 70s by Monday.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR ceilings are expected to persist through much of the morning, with improvement back to VFR conditions during the afternoon. Fog will also be possible at the terminals through mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area from SW to NE during the late afternoon and evening hours. VCTS has been introduced at all TAF sites this evening. IFR ceilings and fog both appear possible again tonight after the thunderstorms move out. Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected again on Tuesday, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again. The threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is lower on Wednesday, but still non-zero.

Light and somewhat variable winds are expected for both today and Tuesday. Winds will turn out of the west on Wednesday, and may gust to around 15-20 knots at times.

Sub-VFR ceilings will likely persist through much of Thursday with increasing rain chances along with thunderstorms for the terminals.
A few storm, especially along and east of the I-95 corridor may become strong to severe. Westerly winds on Thursday will soon be met with northwesterly gusts Friday as a frontal passage occurs.

MARINE
Light winds are expected over the waters both today and on Tuesday. However, SMWs may be needed as thunderstorms approach the waters. The most likely time for thunderstorms to impact the waters today looks to be during the evening and overnight hours.
Winds will turn westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.

SCA conditions are becoming increasingly likely Thursday, with an isolated threat for a few SMWs to be issued due to an strong thunderstorms that cross the waters. Improvements return Friday behind the cold front with elevated northwesterly winds in place.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Sensitive tidal sites like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront will continue to experience minor tidal flooding for the morning high tide cycle before dissipating. Further minor flooding will be possible for the next high tide cycle before improvements are felt in the tidal anamolies through midweek. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible in Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hills Bridge (Route 4)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:24 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hills Bridge (Route 4), Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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