Upper Marlboro, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Upper Marlboro, MD

June 20, 2024 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 6:48 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 134 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

This afternoon - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms through the night.

Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 228 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will last through the first half of Friday before seas begin to subside. An area of low pressure will approach the northern half of the local waters tonight and is being Monitored for tropical development. Rain and isolated lightning storms will accompany the disturbance, especially from sebastian inlet northward. Improving boating conditions are forecast this weekend into next week, outside of increasing scattered rain and storm chances.

Gulf stream hazards - East winds around 20 knots. Seas up to 8 to 9 feet, especially north of sebastian inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, june 19th.
43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Marlboro, MD
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 201808 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 208 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain in place offshore through this weekend. A cold front will progress through on Monday, with high pressure building back in by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A strong upper-level ridge remains overhead this afternoon, but there is enough moisture around to pop off a few clouds in the mid-upper levels. This hasn't affected temperatures much overall with coverage being fairly limited. Temperatures right now are generally in the mid-upper 80s. We should add a few to that before the end of the day, with most sites getting to 90 or so.
Meanwhile, dew points are only in the mid 60s, so heat indices are pretty tolerable in comparison to what is to come into the weekend.

High pressure will remain in control tonight, leading to continued dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the mid- upper 60s for most, with lower 70s in DC and Baltimore.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging does begin to break down a bit by Friday.
As this occurs, the 850 hPa high will shift a bit further south, lessening the easterly component of the wind and resultant oceanic influence. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as a result, with highs in the mid 90s for most. As the upper ridge starts to weaken, a few afternoon thunderstorms may form over the higher terrain of the Potomac Highlands and Allegheny Front in response to daytime heating and resultant terrain-induced circulations. These thunderstorms could potentially drift as far east as the Shenandoah Valley before dissipating in the evening hours. While not likely, if one of these were to get enough juice behind it, low-level thermodynamics would be supportive of some isolated strong wind gusts. Any storms that do develop should be pretty short-lived.

Dry conditions are expected further east. Friday night will feature warmer temperatures compared to preceding nights, with overnight lows generally in the low-mid 70s. This will mark the big change that will lead into the heat for the remainder of the weekend.

Upper-level riding aloft continues to break down further on Saturday. While this occurs, we will see flow shift out of the west at 850 mb. This will result in even hotter temperatures Saturday afternoon, with highs in the mid-upper 90s. It will also turn more humid as southerly flow increases in intensity.
Dewpoints are expected to reach the lower 70s. Peak heat indices of 100-105 appear likely across much of the forecast area, with some even potentially exceeding 105 in the metro areas. Heat Advisories seem increasingly likely for this time period and will be carefully considered on the evening shift.

With the ridge breaking down, there will be less subsidence aloft to suppress thunderstorm activity. With such a warm airmass, we are likely to see a northeast oriented surface trough across the center of the forecast area in response to differential heating over the higher elevations. Mid-level flow (and as a result, shear) will be relatively weak, at around 15 knots, but instability will be plentiful (MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg) within the hot and humid airmass. While the activity should be somewhat disorganized, storms may be capable of producing localized downbursts given high levels of CAPE and DCAPE in place. It isn't entirely impossible for storms to get all the way to the Chesapeake Bay if development continues along outflow boundaries from previous storms. So have increased POPs further east as well. Have also added some enhanced wording to the thunderstorm forecast Saturday afternoon as a results.

Saturday night will be warmer still, with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s to the east of the Blue Ridge, with lower 80s even possible in DC and Baltimore. This level of heat overnight, when the daytime temperatures are near 100, is especially dangerous because there will be very little relief. Current forecast would only have heat indices below 90 between midnight and 8 AM Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The conclusion of this weekend will mark a temporary end to the lengthy period of above average temperatures. On Sunday, 850-mb temperatures rise to around 21-23C which dry adiabatically mixed to the surface would support some century degree readings.
Consequently, the forecast does call for some spots reaching 100 degrees. This is accompanied increasing humidity levels as dew points rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. The resultant heat indices range from 100 to 107 degrees across the forecast area. If this were to be maintained, Heat Advisories may be needed for much of the region. An additional threat will be some strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours.
After over a week of continued heating of the surface, instability levels should be maximized as mixed-layer CAPE values reach 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg. The guidance vary in convective coverage which suggests there could be some capping issues.

After around 9 to 10 days without a cold frontal passage, the guidance does bring a boundary through during the second half of Monday. This would bring an additional threat for some severe convection, especially for those east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
The added clouds and thunderstorm activity does carry Monday's high temperatures back down into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Through Tuesday, this boundary eventually settles off to the south across the coastal Carolinas. Another round of hot temperatures ensue toward mid-week as highs rise into the mid/upper 90s again. Heat indices begin to approach advisory levels again. Another cold front races across the local area by Thursday which helps usher temperatures down. This would again come with another risk of severe thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through at least Friday with light southerly winds AOB 10 knots. Can't completely rule out a thunderstorm during the evening at MRB, but terminals further east should stay dry.

By Saturday, thunderstorm chances increase at the terminals. Any thunderstorm that develops Saturday afternoon could produce locally damaging winds gusts and even some hail. Have increased precip chances with the latest forecast, so will monitor that threat for the terminals as we get within the TAF planning window tomorrow.

Given Sunday and Monday will likely bring a risk of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms, restrictions are possible at times, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours. By Monday, the threat for such severe weather ends up focusing mainly from the Blue Ridge eastward. Regarding winds, Sunday's southwesterly winds may gust up to 15 knots before shifting over to west-northwesterly by Monday evening behind the cold front. VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday with winds shifting from westerly to southerly by the second half of the day.

MARINE
Light southerly flow will continue over the waters through Friday morning. As high pressure strengthens offshore, winds pick up out of the south, and could reach SCA criteria as early as tomorrow afternoon. Confidence was too low for an SCA at this time however.

On Saturday though, winds will be picking up substantially, with SCA winds likely by the afternoon into Saturday night. Some evening thunderstorms can't be ruled out on Saturday either, and if those do make it to the waters, SMWs may be necessary.

A period of southerly channeling may unfold from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. These channeling effects may warrant Small Craft Advisories, especially for the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay. A cold front races through the waters by late Monday evening.
Given the threat for convection each day, Special Marine Warnings may be needed each afternoon and evening.

CLIMATE
Very hot temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday. Several records could be in jeopardy, as seen below. Below is a list of record high temperatures for Jun 21st, 22nd, and the 23rd and the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. RERs are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Friday Jun 21st Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 96F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 95F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 93F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 94F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 94F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 89F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 94F

Saturday Jun 22nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1988) 100F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 99F (1988) 99F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1988) 97F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1933) 95F Charlottesville (CHO) 101F (1933) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 101F (1988) 94F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1988) 97F

Sunday Jun 23nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 98F (1988) 101F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (1988) 99F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (2010) 99F Martinsburg (MRB) 100F (1934) 96F Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1894) 98F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 96F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1988) 97F

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 1 mi103 min 88°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 17 mi73 minESE 6G6 79°F 30.36
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 17 mi55 minSSW 5.1G8.9 86°F 83°F30.30
44063 - Annapolis 18 mi49 minSSE 7.8G7.8 79°F 80°F1 ft
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi55 minESE 6G8.9 83°F 82°F30.31
CPVM2 22 mi55 min 80°F 65°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 23 mi61 minSSE 12G16 76°F 79°F1 ft
HWPM2 30 mi55 minSSE 13G18
CBCM2 31 mi55 minSE 12G16 81°F 80°F30.2971°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 31 mi55 minSE 12G14 81°F 30.31
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 33 mi55 minSE 8G12 82°F 81°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 33 mi55 minSSE 9.9G11 77°F 30.33
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi55 minESE 8.9G11 79°F 81°F30.32
NCDV2 37 mi55 minESE 6G7 82°F 82°F30.30
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi55 minSW 8G11 84°F 79°F30.34
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 38 mi55 minSW 8.9G11 81°F 83°F30.32
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi55 minSSE 11G12


Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD 8 sm18 minSE 0510 smPartly Cloudy88°F63°F43%30.28
KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD 16 sm28 minSSE 0410 smMostly Cloudy90°F64°F43%30.30
KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA 17 sm21 minS 0710 smMostly Cloudy90°F64°F43%30.30
KFME TIPTON,MD 20 sm24 minSSW 0610 sm--88°F64°F46%30.33
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Wind History graph: ADW
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Tide / Current for Hills Bridge (Route 4), Maryland
   
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Hills Bridge (Route 4)
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Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:04 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hills Bridge (Route 4), Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.2
1
am
1.9
2
am
2.7
3
am
3.5
4
am
4.1
5
am
4.3
6
am
4.2
7
am
3.9
8
am
3.4
9
am
2.8
10
am
2.3
11
am
1.7
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
1.3
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.1
6
pm
2.1
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.8


Tide / Current for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:35 AM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:44 PM EDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
12
am
-0.2
1
am
0.2
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.9
4
am
1.1
5
am
1.1
6
am
1
7
am
0.6
8
am
0.1
9
am
-0.4
10
am
-0.8
11
am
-1
12
pm
-1
1
pm
-0.8
2
pm
-0.6
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
0.1
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
-0
9
pm
-0.3
10
pm
-0.4
11
pm
-0.5


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