Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kings Park, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:40PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 8:54 AM EDT (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 737 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers with patchy drizzle this morning, then numerous showers and scattered tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will move northeast through the waters this morning and waves of low pressure will pass through the area this afternoon through tonight. A few Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, and special marine warnings may be required. A weak cold front will pass through the waters on Wednesday and a stronger cold front will pass through on Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday through Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings Park, VA
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location: 38.8, -77.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 070729 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak boundary overhead this morning will lift northeast as a warm front later today through tonight. A series of upper-level disturbances will track along the boundary during this time. A weak cold front will pass through Wednesday followed by a much stronger cold front for Thursday. Canadian high pressure will gradually build overhead for late this week before low pressure possibly impacts the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mid to high level clouds are slowly overspreading southeastward into our region this morning. Some showers are showing up on our radar over the north west parts of our forecast area but I don't believe any of the radar returns are making it to the ground as observations near these showers indicate 5 to 10 degree dewpoint depressions which suggests a low level dry layer. Any precipitation should evaporate before it hits the ground but will help to moisten the layer.

A weak frontal boundary positioned over region this morning will lift northward by the this morning. Winds will become more southwesterly after the front moves to our north leading to increased advection of warm and moist air. Dewpoints will increase up into 50s which will lead to more potential energy that can be tapped into once diurnal heating occurs. Good diurnal heating today will lead to good low and mid level lapse rates which may lead to destabilization in the atmosphere. The best areas for destabilization will be west and southwest of the DC metro. An upper level disturbance will kick off a Mesolow/MCS over Michigan this morning and drop it southeastward into our region early this afternoon and into this evening. The first bands from this MCS is expected to start affecting our region as early as late this morning. As this system moves through our region, showers will be likely with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a main severe threat of damaging winds and large hail. HiRes models are indicating the best period for thunderstorm development to be the 18Z to 3Z period this afternoon and evening. The MCS will mainly affect parts of northern Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia but showers and thunderstorm development in central Virginia is a good possibility due to destabilization due to daytime heating. It will be tough to determine exactly where and when showers and thunderstorms will develop and whether they will be severe. The best area for storms looks to be the area south of I-270 and north of Charlottesville.

Some models have another round showers and thunderstorms occurring during the Tuesday overnight periods and into early Wednesday due to the frontal boundary to our north dropping southward again. Showers are likely overnight with a chance for thunderstorms through 12Z Wednesday. We can't rule out some of these storms producing damaging winds and isolated hail.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A brief dry period is expected during the mid to late afternoon periods as the front moves to our south once again. Some wedging of cooler air is being indicated by some models which suggest that shower and thunderstorm threat could be limited north of the boundary especially with a westerly flow aloft. Before boundary fully moves to our south, showers and thunderstorms could form along the boundary and move through our area. There is potential with daytime temps expected to be in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday that these storms could become strong to severe and produce gusty winds and isolated hail.

A stronger cold front will move through our region on Thursday. This system will be coupled with a strong upper level jet moving northward into our region. The jet may be positioned just right that our area falls in the favorable left exit region. The best chance for thunderstorm development would likely be over portions of central Virginia and southern Maryland where temps may be able to rise high enough to destabilize the environment. There still remains a lot of uncertainty on whether storms will be able to develop but a period of rain from 12Z to about 22Z is likely as the cold front moves through our region. As the front passes through our area, the pressure surge will lead to increased winds leading to periods of 25 to 35 mph gusts. These winds should weaken Thursday evening and into early Friday as the front continues to lift northeastward out of our region. A cooler air mass will move in behind the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper-level trough will remain overhead Friday while Canadian high pressure builds toward the area from the northwest. Strong low pressure will remain near the Canadian Maritimes. A strong gradient between the low over the Maritimes and the high over the Midwest will allow for gusty northwest winds. These northwest winds will usher in chilly conditions for this time of year. Max temps are forecast to range from the 40s in the mountains to the 50s for most other locations.

High pressure will build overhead Friday night through Saturday night, bringing dry and chilly conditions. Frost and freeze headlines may be warranted, with the coldest conditions most likely Friday night. However, confidence is low due to the fact that a steadier wind may hold in place for many areas.

The upper-level trough will amplify over the central CONUS Sunday through Monday while high pressure moves offshore. A return flow will develop, and low pressure is likely to impact the area during this time. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may get drawn into this system, bring the threat for heavier showers and thunderstorms. However, confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mid to high level clouds will overspread all terminals this morning. Winds will become west to southwesterly but remain light today. Showers and thunderstorms will move into our region during the early afternoon periods today and continue on and off through this evening. It is hard to pinpoint when and where storms will affect terminals but I have tried include a mention of showers in the TAF's to indicate the ideal period for when the first round showers should affect our terminals. Storms have the potential to product strong gusty winds, hail and lightning. Some brief restrictions within storms are likely. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight periods and into early Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible again Wednesday morning but a break in precipitation is expected for all terminals during the Wednesday afternoon and evening periods before another round of showers and thunderstorms occurs on Thursday. These storms have the potential to produce gusty winds. As a cold front passes through all the terminals on Thursday, winds will pick up with gusts as high 30 to 35 knots possible. Wind gusts will remain elevated through Thursday afternoon but will start weakened Thursday evening and into early Friday. No major restrictions expected through the short term but brief periods of MVFR can't be ruled out.

High pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds Friday will gradually diminish Friday night.

MARINE. Showers and thunderstorms will affect our marine areas this afternoon which may require special marine warnings. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along with gradient winds. A cold front will pass through our waters on Thursday bringing strong and gusty winds to all our marine areas. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with a possibility for a Gale Warning on Thursday.

High pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds Friday will gradually diminish through Saturday night. An SCA will likely be needed for the waters during this time. A Gale Warning may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJL NEAR TERM . JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/JMG MARINE . BJL/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 14 mi55 min S 5.1 G 6 57°F 58°F1014.7 hPa (-0.5)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 30 mi145 min SSW 1 1014 hPa
NCDV2 35 mi61 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 57°F1014.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi55 min 55°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi55 min SSE 12 G 12 54°F 53°F1015.5 hPa (-0.5)53°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi31 min S 9.7 G 12 54°F 978.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi55 min SW 1 G 1.9 55°F 55°F1014.4 hPa (-0.0)
CPVM2 49 mi55 min 55°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi55 min Calm G 1.9 55°F 1014.8 hPa (-0.0)
FSNM2 49 mi67 min Calm G 1.9 56°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA7 mi59 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F48°F85%1015.2 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA13 mi63 minS 710.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%1014.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA14 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F51°F97%1015.4 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA15 mi63 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F50°F83%1014.4 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi4 hrsSSW 38.00 miFair55°F48°F80%1015.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi59 minS 610.00 miOvercast54°F49°F85%1014.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast51°F49°F94%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N3NW7N3NW10NW8N6NW10
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1 day agoS3SW3S7S9S6W5SW5CalmSE3S4SE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N5
2 days agoNW6NW8NE5N4CalmNW5NE3E3NE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.