Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kings Park, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:32PM Friday July 19, 2019 6:41 PM EDT (22:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:30PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 436 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely .
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the southeastern states through the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, then cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings Park, VA
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location: 38.8, -77.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191932
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
332 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the southeastern united states
through the weekend. A cold front will approach from the great
lakes Sunday, then cross the region early next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
A ridge of high pressure remains across the southeastern conus.

Temperatures heat index values aren't quite up to advertised
headlined criteria... But its close. Don't want to send the wrong
message by dropping warnings to advisories.

A pop up thunderstorm still can't be ruled out due to terrain
circulations between the allegheny front and blue ridge this
afternoon, but the latest satellite imagery not impressive. Am
still carrying slight chance pops to cover this risk, but its
starting to look doubtful.

Tonight will not offer much relief with lows in the middle 70s
to lower 80s and very humid (heat indices remaining 80-90).

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend.

The heat is still expected to peak Saturday, with heat indices
possibly approaching 115 in the i-95 corridor due to ambient air
temperatures around 100 and dew points between 70 and 75.

Confidence high enough to raise warnings and advisories for peak
heating Saturday.

Again, overnight temperatures and humidity will offer no relief,
with lows in the lower to middle 80s (near all time record warm)
in the major urban centers expected, and just barely below 80
even in outlying areas (dew points will be quite high as well,
mid 70s to lower 80s overnight).

A pop up storm once can't be ruled out due to terrain
circulations Saturday, but forcing coverage look sparse. A
bigger but still conditional concern would be for an organized
thunderstorm complex to develop across pennsylvania or west
virginia and drop southeast. Its unlikely, but non-zero.

Heights fall Sunday as a cold front make an approach. Precip
chances higher, and increase at night. The added clouds precip
risk make temperature forecasts more uncertain. Have left the
excessive heat watch for Sunday.

Long term Monday through Friday
A cold front will approach and move through the region Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. There has been a lot variability with
the model solutions for the Monday into Tuesday frontal passage.

They have been speeding up the solution which would mean more
of a flood threat for our region but the recent runs of the gfs
have slowed the frontal boundary considerably bringing the
boundary through Tuesday morning. This solution would mean
Monday will have the ability to warm back up into the mid 90s
which would mean more CAPE available for thunderstorms and
showers to form. This would lead to higher threat for severe
weather especially with CAPE values above 2500 and shear above
20 to 25 knots and forcing with the cold front approaching from
the west. We will need to continue to track the model trends but
their will be the potential for severe weather and flooding
Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures could reach heat advisory
criteria again as dew point temps will hover in the upper 60s to
low 70s. There is the potential for precip to linger through
Tuesday. A cooling trend will begin on Tuesday with temperatures
during the day not expected to reach much over the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

High pressure will build back into region from the midwest on
Wednesday and linger over our region through the end of next week.

Cooler temperatures are forecast to build back into our region with
day time highs running in the upper 70s to mid 80s depending on the
model solution. Generally a much cooler and drier air mass is
expected to finish next week.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR and very hot and humid through the weekend. Patchy
fog is possible for outlying terminals each night, but low
confidence at this time. W flow AOB 10 kts.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday or Sunday
night into Tuesday, potentially provided local brief but
significant flight restrictions.

Marine
Guidance suggesting that southerly channeling may become
established this evening down the chesapeake bay, have issued a
small craft advisory this evening into the overnight hours,
which may need to be adjusted depending upon how this actually
pans out.

Otherwise, looking at hot humid conditions with light flow,
becoming onshore late in the day. Thunderstorms may approach by
late Sunday as a front nears.

Hot and humid conditions will be possible again over the waters on
Monday. A southerly flow up the bay may create winds strong enough
to reach small craft advisory criteria. A cold front will move
through the waters Monday afternoon into Tuesday which may lead to
the need for small craft advisories into Tuesday.

Climate
The record daily warm low temperature for iad for july 18th is
74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969.

As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for
Friday through this weekend:
record daily high temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 102 (1930) 106 (1930) 104 (1926)
bwi 103 (1930) 102 (1930) 104 (1930)
iad 98 (1977) 101 (1980) 101 (1991)
record daily warm low temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 81 (1930) 82 (2015) 82 (1987)
bwi 80 (1942) 80 (1930) 83 (1930)
iad 77 (2013) 75 (2015) 77 (1987)
highest july temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (7 21 1930)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 78 (7 24 2010, 7 8 2010)
all-time highest temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930, 8 6 1918) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (8 5 1930, 7 21 1930, 6 6 1925)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 79 (8 8 2007)
longest stretches of consecutive days with high temperatures at or
over 100 degrees at iad:
2 (7 7-8 2012, 7 21-22 2011, 7 6-7 2010, 8 16-17 1997, 7 16-17 1988
and 7 20-21 1980)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at dca:
5 (7 16-20 2013)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at bwi:
4 (8 8-11 1900)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca) since
1941. Additional temperature records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept at what
is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall airport
(bwi) since 1950. Additional temperature records observed downtown
extend the period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the sterling dulles va area have been kept
at what is now washington dulles international airport (iad) since
1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for dcz001.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
dcz001.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for dcz001.

Md... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for
mdz003>006-011-013-014-503>508.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for mdz016>018-502.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for mdz502.

Va... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for vaz028-
031-052>054-505-506.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
vaz028>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for vaz028>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for vaz025>027-029-
030-036>040-050-051-055>057-501-502.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for vaz025>027.

Wv... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for
wvz051>053.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
wvz051>053.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for wvz051>053.

Heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for wvz050-055-502-
504.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for wvz050-055-
502-504.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Saturday for anz532>534-541-543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Jmg
aviation... Hts jmg
marine... Hts jmg
climate... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 14 mi60 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 95°F 87°F1012.1 hPa
NCDV2 35 mi60 min SW 5.1 G 8 95°F 1011.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi54 min 92°F 1011.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 45 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 87°F 86°F1011.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi42 min SSE 12 G 13 87°F 85°F1012.7 hPa (-1.5)81°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi36 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 87°F 1013 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi60 min Calm G 2.9 96°F 83°F1011.3 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi54 min 88°F 85°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi54 min W 12 G 14 94°F 1011.7 hPa
FSNM2 49 mi72 min W 14 G 15 94°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA7 mi1.8 hrsSSE 510.00 miFair94°F75°F55%1013.1 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA13 mi50 minSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds95°F73°F49%1012 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA14 mi46 minSSW 610.00 miFair95°F73°F49%1013.2 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA15 mi50 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds96°F68°F40%1012 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi46 minWSW 610.00 miFair98°F71°F42%1012.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi1.8 hrsSW 910.00 miFair94°F71°F47%1013.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi59 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy95°F65°F38%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W6NW6NW7NW3W8NW7S5S6S5SW3
1 day agoSE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S5NW7W3NW5W8W8W6NW4W4
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmSE7S4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S4S4S4S3SE7S6S7S9S7SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.