Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 2:45 AM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 734 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered sprinkles this evening. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Tue night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 921 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - A weak frontal boundary will push southward across the waters tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible through early this week. High pressure begins to build over the waters mid to late week, with lower rain chances forecast.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 17th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 933 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warming temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. A strong cold front approaches from the Midwest and Ohio River Valley Wednesday before crossing the area Thursday. The front stalls to the south Friday before lifting back into the region this weekend to bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Upper trough axis is southeast of the area this evening while surface high pressure noses southwestward from the Canadian Maritimes. Skies have cleared across much of the area. The lone shower in the highlands should dissipate in the next hour or two. While surface winds will be light to calm, there will be a marine influence to the low level airmass, especially east of the mountains. In addition, soils are still wet from recent rain. Therefore, expect low clouds and fog to develop during the second half of the night. Latest guidance suggests low clouds may prevail along the immediate I-95 corridor, with the highest chance for dense fog just to the west along the Virginia piedmont. Will have to monitor obs through the night since probabilities don't suggest high confidence at this time. Lows will range from the mid 50s to near 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday begins our reprieve from unsettled conditions with dry weather and sunny skies in the forecast as high pressure builds in. High temperatures rise to the mid-upper 70s, starting a warming trend through mid-week as well. Low clouds and fog from Sunday night should burn off by late morning, hanging the longest along the Chesapeake and Potomac. Clear skies and lingering moisture likely yield patchy fog once again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the mid- upper 50s.

Dry and sunny conditions continue through Tuesday, high pressure remaining overhead but gradually sliding eastward. High temperatures warm into the upper 70s to 80s. While not currently forecasting fog Tuesday night, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, if we cool enough overnight some patchy fog could develop, but it's not looking as certain as Sunday and Monday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overall not much change in our current weather pattern over the last few weeks. We still remain in the cycle of 1-2 days of sensible weather followed by 2-3 days of unsettled conditions. Unfortunately, as we head into the middle and latter half of the workweek the unsettled weather looks to return.

Strong low pressure over the upper Great Lakes region and it's associated cold front draped across the Upper Midwest/Ohio River Valley will gradually push east Wednesday as the upper level ridging breaks down. 06z/12z guidance continues to slow the progress of the front east Wednesday with most of the guidance favoring Thursday into Thursday night. This is due in part to the placement of the departing surface high off the NJ/Long Island coast and secondary surface high pressure over the southern Appalachians region. Even with that said, a few showers and thunderstorms (some of which could be strong) remain possible in areas west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon and evening as an initial piece of shortwave energy pivoting around the upper level low passes through. Most locations will remain dry with increased south to southwesterly winds boosting temperatures into the mid to upper 80s to near 90 outside the mountains/bay.

The cold front looks to push through the area Thursday into Thursday night before stalling to the south Friday. Latest 12z guidance suggest a frontal passage right during the peak heating period Thursday mid to late afternoon. This will allow both CAPE and shear to maximized lending to a potential severe weather threat. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center makes a mention of this threat on there Day 5 outlook. CSU Learning Machine Probabilities also highlight areas along and east of the Blue Ridge (i.e I-95 corridor in the 15-30 percent probabilities of severe thunderstorms) during this timeframe. Multi-ensemble CAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg on Wednesday before rising into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by Thursday afternoon. With the approach of the front, it remains to be seen if the increasing vertical shear (35-45kt) can coincide with the higher CAPE values. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Some storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail given the antecedent conditions. As for coverage, some uncertainty remains given any cloud cover early on and the resultant timing of the front as it passes through. High temperatures Thursday will once again be in the mid to upper 80s with 70s over the mountains.

The front stalls south and east of the area Friday before retreating back north into the start of the weekend. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are likely as a result although uncertainty remains in the overall pattern. High pressure tries to briefly build back into the area Sunday before another series of fronts impact the area by the early part of next week.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Main concern for tonight revolves around low clouds and/or fog during the second half of the night due to calm winds and moist near-surface conditions. There's somewhat of a signal for low clouds (MVFR to IFR) to prevail at BWI/MTN/DCA, with higher chances of fog to the west. Have continued to be somewhat conservative in the TAFs due to uncertainty, but dense fog is not out of the question at IAD/CHO/MRB.

Conditions should improve by late Monday morning. Afterwards, dry and sunny conditions are expected through Tuesday with winds remaining fairly light out of the S/SE.

A strong cold front will approach the region Wednesday before slowly passing through Thursday into Friday. Some restrictions are possible especially Thursday into Thursday night as the front crosses. This is due in part to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. The front stalls to the south late Thursday into early Friday before retreating back to the north to start the weekend. Additional restrictions are possible during this time. South to southwest winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Winds remain fair, generally southeast or south. As winds turn more southerly, some channeling is possible but is not currently expected given the light flow.

Some SCA level southerly channeling is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front from the Ohio River Valley. The cold front looks to slowly cross the waters Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening bringing the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Special Marine Warnings may be required for the stronger storms. Winds shift to west-northwest behind the front Friday as it stalls south of the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels look to be stable or even rising a little over the next few days with light southeast to south winds. More sensitive locations such as Annapolis, Straits Pint, and DC Waterfront will likely see minor tidal flooding during the astronomically higher tide cycles. With tonight's cycle being on track, am issuing Coastal Flood Advisories for these locations.
Additional locations could see minor flooding over the next few days.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet

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