NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning, and will generally stay put through tonight.
Aloft, a shortwave is currently overhead and looks to gradually develop into a closed low off the coast by this time tomorrow, but other than a wind shift from northwesterly to northeasterly, not expecting that system to have any impact on our weather through tonight. With that shortwave passing offshore, we should be mostly rid of the mid and high clouds which much of the region saw on Friday, so skies should generally be bluer today than they were yesterday, other than perhaps a little haze from some western wildfire smoke. We will likely see another build- up of cumulus this afternoon like we saw on Friday, but nothing should come of it. With dew points remaining mostly in the 50s again, though a touch higher than yesterday, and air temps nudging a bit warmer as well, but still not far from normal with mid-upper 80s for most, it will be a classic beautiful summer day overall.

Tonight will be dry and clear to partly cloudy. Dew points will creep up a little as winds shift a bit more onshore with the aforementioned low starting to develop off the coast, but the effect through late tonight should be minimal. Lows again in the upper 50s to 60s throughout the region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The positively tilted trough over our region today is expected to stall over the northwest Atlantic and cut-off in the upper flow by Sunday morning. The low will gradually deepen allowing a surface low to develop and retrograde to the northwest back over southern New England. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all global and short-range guidance now keeps the surface low in the vicinity of Cape Cod. So while guidance has shifted back to the east, have mostly lessened cloud cover and capped precipitation chances to around 15-20% on Monday.

Overall, the short term period will be quite tranquil aside for the retrograding low to our northeast. Sunday will be dry areawide with just some high clouds fanning west from the cut- off low. Monday will feature more clouds than Sunday with the best chance of a shower or storm over northeastern PA and NJ.
High temps will be in the 80s on Sunday, with slightly cooler temps on Monday due to more in the way of clouds. Lows will range in the mid 60s to low 70s both nights.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
By Tuesday, the cut-off low aloft will be shunted northeast into maritime Canada as the next main weather features approaches. This next feature is yet another upper trough approaching from the north and west around mid-week. This may have a more widespread impact across our region. At the surface, broad high pressure will remain offshore for much of the week as the surface low tracks through interior Canada. Although the initial cold front does not look to cross through the area until Wednesday into Wednesday night, showers and storms will be possible beginning on Tuesday. This convection will mostly be diurnally driven, so the greatest chance for showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Should dry out briefly on Thursday behind the front, but the pattern aloft is quite active. So as one wave passes, another one is right on its heels. This ultimately may cause another round of showers and storms to occur Thursday into Friday.

Temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will be a few degrees below normal while Thursday and Friday look to be few degrees above normal. Overall, an increase in moisture advection and the return of some humid weather is expected for the long term period. Heat headlines may be needed towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Light north-northwest winds becoming northeast around 5 knots, except shifting to southeast in the afternoon at MIV and ACY due to a sea breeze. Scattered cumulus will develop this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable at times but with a modest easterly trend, 5 kts or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday night...VFR expected with some mid-high level clouds. A slight chance of a rain shower or thunderstorm on Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Conditions should primarily remain VFR, with sub-VFR conditions possible at night and near convection. Chances for showers and storms expected through Wednesday. Patchy fog possible at night.

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain sub-SCA thru tonight. Dry conditions expected with winds less than 15 kts mainly from the northwest shifting to northeasterly tonight. Significant wave heights are forecast to be less than 3 feet through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally around 5-15 kt with seas of 2-4 feet.

Monday night through Tuesday...SCA conditions possible, especially further offshore. Southerly flow increases with winds around 15-20 kt, locally higher and seas of 4-5 feet.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds ranging around 15-20 kt and seas of 3-4 feet.

Rip Currents...

Today...East-northeast winds around 5-8 mph. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a 8-9 second period. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches

Sunday...Northwest winds around 5-8 mph in the morning, will become south-southeast winds in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a 8-9 second period. With similar conditions compared to Saturday, have maintained a LOW risk for rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.