Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Michaels, MD
December 4, 2023 12:59 AM EST (05:59 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 4:44PM Moonrise 11:38PM Moonset 12:32PM
ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1233 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Overnight..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Overnight..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1233 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a frontal system will cross the waters through Monday. A clipper system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will return to the waters Thursday and Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and Wednesday.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a frontal system will cross the waters through Monday. A clipper system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will return to the waters Thursday and Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 040307 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1007 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
One area of low pressure lifts through the region tonight as another area of low pressure over the Great Lakes moves into northern New York and eastern Canada late tonight into Monday.
High pressure then briefly builds through the region. A weak clipper system passes through the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
High pressure returns to close out the week. A stronger frontal system may impact the area late next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A foggy and dreary Sunday evening out there. The bulk of the showers and drizzle have ended, but some light showers/drizzle remain possible through the evening as an area of low pressure slides overhead and offshore. Behind the departing surface low, some dry air will slowly work its way in with, gradually improving conditions expected as the night goes on. Visibilities have improved considerably as the drier air is beginning to filter in from the west. The Dense Fog Advisory was canceled or expired for all zones.
The broken convective line has largely weakened to a few showers sliding across the northern portions of our area. This activity will diminish through midnight and pass off to our northeast.
Overnight, as previously mentioned, dry air slowly works its way in. Fog and low clouds will slowly erode and we should some clearing by midnight or so. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s/low 40s.
Relatively quiet overall for Monday as a deamplifying trough approaches the region. Weakening low pressure will slide by to the south, but the only impact overall looks to be some mid to high level cloud cover passing later in the day. Temperatures will climb into the upper 40s/low 50s, which would qualify as seasonable for early December. Areas within the Pocono plateau will stay in the low 40s. A west to northwest breeze near 10-15 mph will make it feel a bit cooler. Some gusts up to 20 mph are possible.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will build east Monday night, and then slides off the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the base of an H5 trough with strong shortwave energy passes north of the region Monday night.
Conditions will be dry throughout the local area, but cannot rule out some Lake Effect flurries making their way down into the southern Poconos.
Another, deeper, H5 trough then approaches Tuesday night, and the base of the trough will pass through the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The bulk of the precipitation will mainly be south of Delmarva, and will carry chance PoPs for Delmarva and slight chance PoPs for southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
Surface temperatures may be cold enough to support some snow in southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, but QPF will be minimal, and not expecting much in the way of accumulation. At least a rain/snow mix could even develop in southern portions of Delmarva.
Precipitation tapers off on Wednesday as the base of the trough slides offshore as a cold front passes through the region.
Lows Monday night will mostly be in the low to mid 30s, then highs on Tuesday will generally be in the low to mid 40s, with highs in the upper 40s in Delmarva. Cold Tuesday night with lows in the 20s to low 30s, then highs on Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 40s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states will build east Wednesday night before sliding off the Southeast coast on Friday. Cold on dry conditions on tap for Thursday with highs only in the low 40s, but return flow sets up behind the departing high, and warm air advection will be underway for the end of the week. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s for Friday, and then in the upper 50s Saturday and possibly into the low 60s Sunday for southern portions.
A developing storm system could affect the region late next weekend. There are too many inconsistencies among the models to say which way, but it looks like it could be rainy by Sunday.
Will cap NBM PoPs at high chance for now.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...IFR/LIFR ceiling and visibility restrictions to start, but improvement will occur as drier air moves in and low clouds scatter out with visibility improving. Improvement will occur from west to east in the 03-06z time frame. VFR conditions are forecast thereafter. Moderate confidence in timing and extent of restrictions. Initially northeast winds near 5 kts will become variable and shift to the west by 06z and increase a bit to near 5-10 kts.
Monday...VFR. Westerly winds increasing to near 10 kts with gusts up to 18 kts after 15z. High confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR Tuesday, then mostly VFR Tuesday night. Some light rain and/or snow may briefly reduce CIGs/VSBYs Tuesday night. Light N winds. Low confidence.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...Any light rain and/or snow tapers off Wednesday morning, then improving conditions. If conditions are not VFR Wednesday morning, they will be Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Thursday through Friday...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt on Thursday, becoming SW Thursday night, then S on Friday. High confidence.
MARINE
The Marine Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire. While visibility has largely improved this evening, some areas of fog and drizzle may briefly reduce visibility to near 1 to 2 NM at times until midnight.
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for waters north of Great Egg Inlet as seas remain elevated. While gusts will diminish briefly tonight to below SCA levels, seas around 5 feet will keep the SCA in effect. Winds out of the west will bring gusts close to 25 kt later tonight, continuing into tomorrow morning. The SCA is in effect until 14z for these zones. North of Cape Henlopen and south of Great Egg Inlet, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued, valid from 06z-14z as westerly wind gusts near 25 kt are possible as an area of low pressure pulls away. South of Cape Henlopen and within the Delaware Bay, no marine headlines are anticipated as gusts should stay below 25 kt and seas remaining below 5 feet through tonight.
For Monday, after the SCA expires, no marine headlines are anticipated. Westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Outlook
Monday night...W winds 15 to 20 kt. A SCA may be needed if gusts to 25 kt develop. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...An SCA will likely be needed. NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. W to SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow is causing some tidal piling to occur across the region. As a result, back bays are currently seeing some spotty minor coastal flooding. Back bays may be slow to drain going forwards; some minor coastal flooding during the next two high tide cycles remains possible, particularly for back bays.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ452>454.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1007 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
One area of low pressure lifts through the region tonight as another area of low pressure over the Great Lakes moves into northern New York and eastern Canada late tonight into Monday.
High pressure then briefly builds through the region. A weak clipper system passes through the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
High pressure returns to close out the week. A stronger frontal system may impact the area late next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A foggy and dreary Sunday evening out there. The bulk of the showers and drizzle have ended, but some light showers/drizzle remain possible through the evening as an area of low pressure slides overhead and offshore. Behind the departing surface low, some dry air will slowly work its way in with, gradually improving conditions expected as the night goes on. Visibilities have improved considerably as the drier air is beginning to filter in from the west. The Dense Fog Advisory was canceled or expired for all zones.
The broken convective line has largely weakened to a few showers sliding across the northern portions of our area. This activity will diminish through midnight and pass off to our northeast.
Overnight, as previously mentioned, dry air slowly works its way in. Fog and low clouds will slowly erode and we should some clearing by midnight or so. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s/low 40s.
Relatively quiet overall for Monday as a deamplifying trough approaches the region. Weakening low pressure will slide by to the south, but the only impact overall looks to be some mid to high level cloud cover passing later in the day. Temperatures will climb into the upper 40s/low 50s, which would qualify as seasonable for early December. Areas within the Pocono plateau will stay in the low 40s. A west to northwest breeze near 10-15 mph will make it feel a bit cooler. Some gusts up to 20 mph are possible.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will build east Monday night, and then slides off the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the base of an H5 trough with strong shortwave energy passes north of the region Monday night.
Conditions will be dry throughout the local area, but cannot rule out some Lake Effect flurries making their way down into the southern Poconos.
Another, deeper, H5 trough then approaches Tuesday night, and the base of the trough will pass through the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The bulk of the precipitation will mainly be south of Delmarva, and will carry chance PoPs for Delmarva and slight chance PoPs for southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
Surface temperatures may be cold enough to support some snow in southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, but QPF will be minimal, and not expecting much in the way of accumulation. At least a rain/snow mix could even develop in southern portions of Delmarva.
Precipitation tapers off on Wednesday as the base of the trough slides offshore as a cold front passes through the region.
Lows Monday night will mostly be in the low to mid 30s, then highs on Tuesday will generally be in the low to mid 40s, with highs in the upper 40s in Delmarva. Cold Tuesday night with lows in the 20s to low 30s, then highs on Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 40s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states will build east Wednesday night before sliding off the Southeast coast on Friday. Cold on dry conditions on tap for Thursday with highs only in the low 40s, but return flow sets up behind the departing high, and warm air advection will be underway for the end of the week. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s for Friday, and then in the upper 50s Saturday and possibly into the low 60s Sunday for southern portions.
A developing storm system could affect the region late next weekend. There are too many inconsistencies among the models to say which way, but it looks like it could be rainy by Sunday.
Will cap NBM PoPs at high chance for now.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...IFR/LIFR ceiling and visibility restrictions to start, but improvement will occur as drier air moves in and low clouds scatter out with visibility improving. Improvement will occur from west to east in the 03-06z time frame. VFR conditions are forecast thereafter. Moderate confidence in timing and extent of restrictions. Initially northeast winds near 5 kts will become variable and shift to the west by 06z and increase a bit to near 5-10 kts.
Monday...VFR. Westerly winds increasing to near 10 kts with gusts up to 18 kts after 15z. High confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR Tuesday, then mostly VFR Tuesday night. Some light rain and/or snow may briefly reduce CIGs/VSBYs Tuesday night. Light N winds. Low confidence.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...Any light rain and/or snow tapers off Wednesday morning, then improving conditions. If conditions are not VFR Wednesday morning, they will be Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Thursday through Friday...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt on Thursday, becoming SW Thursday night, then S on Friday. High confidence.
MARINE
The Marine Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire. While visibility has largely improved this evening, some areas of fog and drizzle may briefly reduce visibility to near 1 to 2 NM at times until midnight.
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for waters north of Great Egg Inlet as seas remain elevated. While gusts will diminish briefly tonight to below SCA levels, seas around 5 feet will keep the SCA in effect. Winds out of the west will bring gusts close to 25 kt later tonight, continuing into tomorrow morning. The SCA is in effect until 14z for these zones. North of Cape Henlopen and south of Great Egg Inlet, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued, valid from 06z-14z as westerly wind gusts near 25 kt are possible as an area of low pressure pulls away. South of Cape Henlopen and within the Delaware Bay, no marine headlines are anticipated as gusts should stay below 25 kt and seas remaining below 5 feet through tonight.
For Monday, after the SCA expires, no marine headlines are anticipated. Westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Outlook
Monday night...W winds 15 to 20 kt. A SCA may be needed if gusts to 25 kt develop. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...An SCA will likely be needed. NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. W to SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow is causing some tidal piling to occur across the region. As a result, back bays are currently seeing some spotty minor coastal flooding. Back bays may be slow to drain going forwards; some minor coastal flooding during the next two high tide cycles remains possible, particularly for back bays.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ452>454.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 7 sm | 34 min | WSW 03 | 3/4 sm | -- | Mist | 52°F | 52°F | 100% | 29.76 |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 21 sm | 34 min | NNW 03 | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Fog | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 29.76 |
Wind History from ESN
(wind in knots)St. Michaels
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:52 AM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM EST 0.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:08 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 02:28 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST 1.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:37 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:52 AM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM EST 0.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:08 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 02:28 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST 1.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:37 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:29 AM EST -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:00 AM EST 0.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:09 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 01:11 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:39 PM EST -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:34 PM EST 0.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:37 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:29 AM EST -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:00 AM EST 0.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:09 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 01:11 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:39 PM EST -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:34 PM EST 0.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:37 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0 |
| 1 am |
| -0.4 |
| 2 am |
| -0.7 |
| 3 am |
| -0.9 |
| 4 am |
| -0.9 |
| 5 am |
| -0.7 |
| 6 am |
| -0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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