Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday July 9, 2020 3:05 AM EDT (07:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 138 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Friday morning...
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 138 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure over the southeastern u.s. Will lift northward toward the carolinas through Thursday, moving near or just east of the delmarva peninsula on Friday. A cold front is poised to encroach on the waters late Saturday into Sunday, lingering nearby into early next week. Gale force wind gusts will be possible over portions of the waters overnight Thursday into Friday, potentially requiring the need for a gale warning during this time period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090036 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 836 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will continue to influence our weather into Thursday. Weak low pressure centered along the Carolina coast this afternoon is forecast to progress to the north. The low is expected to pass through or near our region on Friday and Friday night. A frontal boundary is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Saturday. The front is expected to move slowly through our region on Sunday and Monday before drifting away to our southeast during the middle of the new week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. 815 pm update: Have included mention of fog for most of the region overnight. Latest guidance is quite aggressive in developing fog over much of the region, with two areas particularly emphasized: (1) The Lehigh Valley and adjacent areas, where widespread precipitation occurred today. (2) The Pine Barrens and vicinity, with close proximity to the ocean and onshore flow beneficial factors. The main question is if fog or low stratus will dominate, especially in New Jersey. Guidance is not particularly convincing either way, and given the lack of precipitation in New Jersey today, was inclined to leave mention of dense fog out of the forecast for now. Would not be surprised if dense fog develops in the more susceptible/sheltered locations, especially in the Lehigh Valley and vicinity, however.

600 pm update: Major changes to the forecast early this evening. Have canceled the flash flood watch, as storms across the watch area have diminished/moved south and have effectively used the available potential energy in the atmosphere today. Have also modified PoPs considerably this evening to accommodate recent radar trends. Generally, this involved lowering PoPs in the Poconos and maintaining higher PoPs between Reading and Trenton and locations just south through mid evening.

Perhaps the biggest change was to temperatures, which have been lowered substantially thanks to the convection in the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey this afternoon. Used the available NAM guidance in particular, as this was verifying much better than other available output. This dropped temperatures about 10-15 degrees for much of this region through the evening hours.

May add some fog mention to portions of the Lehigh Valley based on latest guidance and given the heavier precipitation today. Will make that determination in the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion .

Convection will wane into the overnight with sunset. Low clouds and patchy fog will once again be possible with increased moisture and light winds (similar to last night). Trying to pinpoint where exactly this occurs remains tricky business. Lows will drop into the low 70s across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. A very similar day tomorrow before the coastal storm begins to work into the region. Patchy fog is possible in the morning, with low clouds and stratus persisting into the early morning once again. Think the overall risk for showers and thunderstorms will be lower given the more robust forecast trends for the coastal storm system. Weak ridging pushes ahead of this system over our region through the early afternoon, with high temperatures forecast to reach into the upper 80s to near 90 in the urban corridor. Current forecast trends begin to push this system near our region up the Delmarva Peninsula with initial rain showers possible by late afternoon to evening starting across Delaware and Maryland late Thursday evening and working northward into the overnight. More to come on this system as it rapidly evolves and we continue to provide the latest forecast information as it becomes available.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. We continue to keep a very close eye on the low that will be approaching our region from the south on Thursday night. The guidance has been trending westward with the track, so the feature may pass over or very near our region from Friday into Friday night.

The low is not forecast to be particularly strong by the time it reaches our area, so the wind is not much of a concern. However, it will have a good deal of moisture associated with it. There is the potential for widespread heavy rain in northeastern Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. The recent heavy rainfall in parts of our region has increased our susceptibility to flooding. We will work to refine the threat area as we get closer to the event. It appears as though most of the heavy rain will lift to our north on Friday night.

A frontal boundary is forecast to approach from the northwest on Saturday and it is expected to move slowly through our region on Sunday and Monday. There will likely be enough moisture and instability during the afternoon and early evening each day to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The front is anticipated to move away to our southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, there is a decreasing chance of precipitation at that time.

The clouds and precipitation are expected to keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to the middle 80s on Friday. Maximum readings should favor the middle 80s to the lower 90s from Saturday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR through late evening, but sub-VFR with fog/low stratus is probable overnight, especially at RDG/ABE/TTN (where precipitation occurred earlier; dense fog is not out of the question) and at MIV/ACY (where increased onshore flow exists; confidence is lower here, as low stratus may preclude denser/more widespread fog). Best timing is between 06z and 12z, but confidence is rather low in precise timing of MVFR/IFR. Winds light and variable (high confidence).

Thursday . Conditions likely improving to VFR by mid-morning, though some lingering fog and/or low clouds may occur through 14z or so. Winds becoming predominantly east or southeast 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence in the morning; high confidence in the afternoon.

Thursday night . VFR conditions in the evening likely deteriorating to MVFR from south to north with time. Chances for showers/storms increase overnight as well, with occasional IFR likely in their proximity. Winds generally easterly 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. The rain will be heavy at times. Northeast wind around 10 knots, becoming variable. Medium confidence.

Friday night . MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms with a decreasing chance of rain overnight. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest. Medium confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night visibility restrictions are possible. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night visibility restrictions are possible. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions expected through the overnight with south-southeasterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 feet or less.

Thursday . Sub-advisory conditions continue as winds turn easterly from 10 to 15 knots. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, especially across the southern Atlantic Waters late in the day. Seas 3 feet or less.

Outlook .

Thursday night . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters from Brigantine and Atlantic City southward and for Delaware Bay for wind gusts around 25 knots.

Friday . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters for wind gusts around 25 knots and wave heights building to 5 to 7 feet.

Friday night . Wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 4 to 6 feet.

Saturday through Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip Currents .

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday, as an east-to-southeast medium-period swell will begin to increase. This will occur as a coastal low begins to intensify to the south of the area. Conditions are expected to deteriorate on Friday, as a longer-period swell begins to develop with seas continuing to build as the low begins to move into the region. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is currently forecast for Friday, with potential for an elevated rip current risk to continue through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The area of low pressure moving northward near the coast from Thursday night through Friday night is not expected to be particularly strong, and it should be somewhat progressive. As a result, we are not anticipating much in the way of tidal flooding. Positive departures in excess of 2 feet are needed to produce minor flooding. It seems as though tidal departures will remain less than 2 feet at most coastal locations on Friday.

EQUIPMENT. The Reading Regional Airport (KRDG) ASOS has returned to service.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450- 451. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . CMS/Davis Short Term . Davis Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Davis/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding . Iovino Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi66 min ESE 6 G 7 78°F 81°F1015.1 hPa (-0.0)76°F
CPVM2 16 mi48 min 79°F 75°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi54 min E 5.1 G 8 77°F 84°F1014 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi48 min ESE 5.1 G 7 79°F 83°F1013.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi36 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 81°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi156 min SE 1.9 1013 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi54 min E 4.1 G 6 75°F 84°F1014.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi48 min SSE 7 G 8 1014 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 1014.3 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi60 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 1014.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi48 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 82°F1013.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi48 min Calm G 1 79°F 84°F1014 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi48 min ESE 8 G 11 78°F 83°F1013.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi48 min E 1 G 1.9 78°F 85°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi71 minNE 410.00 miFair74°F72°F96%1015.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi71 minESE 410.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1014.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi72 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds79°F75°F88%1014.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi71 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds73°F73°F100%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE3SE4SE3SE3SE3SE3SE4E3SE6SE6SE6SE4S6W4CalmCalmSE4SE4SE4SE3SE3CalmNE3
1 day agoS5S3E4E4E5NE3NE5NE3E4CalmS4SW5NE5E9SE3E4E3SE4SE3SE3CalmSE5SE5SE4
2 days agoS3S4S4CalmS5SW5SW5S7SW6S8SW6S11
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Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:34 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.60.60.81.11.51.71.91.81.71.41.20.90.70.60.60.711.21.41.51.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.60.80.90.70.40-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.7-0.400.40.60.70.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.