Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ravensworth, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:09PM Saturday September 21, 2019 1:34 AM EDT (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1035 Pm Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will dominate over the waters through Saturday before settling to the south on Sunday. Small craft advisories may be required Sunday night and into Monday for a portion of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ravensworth, VA
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location: 38.82, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 210010
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
810 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend
with mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures
expected. The high will shift off the southeast coast by Monday
as a cold front approaches from the ohio valley. In the wake of
the frontal passage, high pressure will situate itself over the
region once again through the middle of next week.

Near term through Saturday
Tranquil conditions through tonight as high pressure centers
itself over the mid-atlantic. This will lead to clear skies,
light winds, and dry conditions across the cwa. There is a small
cluster of showers and thunderstorms over central ohio this
evening, and some leftover clouds or sprinkles may reach the
allegheny highlands around daybreak. Otherwise, southerly winds
will allow for a warming trend heading into the weekend, with
highs this afternoon topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s,
falling back into the 50s tonight under prime radiational
cooling conditions.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
The aforementioned high will drift a little further to our
south and east through the weekend, allowing for further
warming under a southerly breeze. High temperatures will extend
into low to middle 80s on Saturday, topping out in the middle
to upper 80s Sunday with plentiful sunshine.

Precipitation wise, a slight chance of showers and a
thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon west of the
blue ridge as a weak upper level disturbance tracks across
pennsylvania. GFS is a bit more bullish on QPF coverage, while
the nam ECMWF favoring the drier end of the spectrum. As such,
feel a slight chance covers this well for now. Given warming
temperatures and slightly lower heights, there will be some weak
instability available across the mountains, with MUCAPE values
ranging between 500-1000 j kg. Thus have inserted the mention of
thunder to the gridded database. Any showers or thunderstorm
will quickly dissipate early Saturday evening as the Sun sets.

Thereafter, dry conditions return areawide for the balance of
the weekend.

Long term Monday through Friday
A positively tilted trof over the WRN great lks Monday is
forecast to deepen and become a closed low as it crosses the ern
great lks, southern ontario, and the st. Lawrence river valley
Tuesday. This help push a cold front through the area late
Monday. Showers appear likely along the front Monday afternoon
mainly over the appalachians and areas west of route 15 with
model guidance showing little or no accumulation east of route
15. Cooler temperatures are expected for the middle of next week
under the influence of the upper level trof. Heights begin to
rise sharply on Wed with strong ridge axis settling over the
area by next weekend with 500 mb heights progged higher than
with the ridge currently over the area. This will lead to a
significant warming trend with temperatures AOA 90f for the
second half of next week with record high temperatures possible
for late sep and continued dry weather.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions expected through the weekend as high pressure
centers itself south of the terminals and light southerly
breezes prevail. Can't rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm
at mrb Saturday afternoon, but chances are too low to include
in the TAF at this time.

Cdfnt will cross the area late Monday with shifting winds and
gusty winds.

Marine
With high pressure centered south of the waters through Sunday,
sub-sca conditions are expected to prevail. The high will drift
further off the southeast coast Sunday night as a cold front
nears the ohio valley. This will allow for the gradient to
tighten and southerly winds to increase. This may result in sca
gusts returning to the waters Sunday night into Monday morning.

Possible SCA conditions Monday into Tuesday morning in ssw flow
ahead of a front and in NW flow behind frontal passage.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies continue to fall across the waters, keeping coastal
flooding concerns mainly below minor flood thresholds. Water
levels will remain elevated the next few days, with near minor
flooding possible.

Climate
Here are the rankings for driest septembers on record.

Washington, dc area (ronald reagan washington national airport, dca)
1. 0.11 inches (2019, so far)
0.11 inches (2005)
3. 0.14 inches (1884)
4. 0.20 inches (1967)
5. 0.32 inches (1977)
1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for september: 3.72 inches
note: weather records for the washington, dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca) since
1941. The official weather record consists of that data back to
1945, and additional precipitation records observed in downtown
washington, dc extend the period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (baltimore-washington international thurgood
marshall airport, bwi)
1. 0.09 inches (1884)
2. 0.15 inches (2019, so far)
3. 0.21 inches (1967)
4. 0.32 inches (1906)
5. 0.35 inches (2007)
1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for september: 4.03 inches
note: weather records for the baltimore, md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Additional precipitation records observed
in downtown baltimore extend the period of record back to 1871.

Sterling dulles va area (washington dulles international airport, iad)
1. 0.15 inches (2005)
2. 0.33 inches (2019, so far)
3. 0.62 inches (1967)
4. 0.78 inches (1978)
5. 0.93 inches (2014)
1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for september: 3.92 inches
note: weather records for the sterling dulles va area have been kept
at what is now washington dulles international airport (iad) since
1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf dhof
short term... Bkf
long term... Lfr
aviation... Bkf lfr dhof
marine... Bkf lfr dhof
tides coastal flooding... Bkf dhof
climate... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 11 mi65 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 77°F1023.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 27 mi125 min Calm 59°F 1024 hPa58°F
NCDV2 36 mi65 min SW 7 G 8 65°F 85°F1023.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi65 min 65°F 1023.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 42 mi41 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 74°F1023.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi35 min SSW 8.9 G 11 68°F 74°F1024.9 hPa (-0.0)58°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi35 min WSW 12 G 14 69°F 1 ft1024.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi65 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 76°F1023.2 hPa
CPVM2 46 mi65 min 71°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi65 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 1023.6 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi65 min Calm G 1.9 65°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA7 mi99 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F91%1024.3 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA10 mi43 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds65°F55°F73%1024 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA16 mi43 minSSE 410.00 miFair58°F52°F81%1023.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair54°F53°F97%1024.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi99 minSW 610.00 miFair62°F54°F77%1024.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD19 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair56°F50°F82%1023.7 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA22 mi39 minNW 310.00 miFair63°F57°F81%1024.4 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD24 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1025.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW6S6S7S6S7S4S6S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE3NE3NE4--N3E4CalmSE4SE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Alexandria, Virginia
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Alexandria
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:01 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:41 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:43 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.23.12.72.11.61.10.80.70.81.11.72.32.72.72.52.11.510.70.60.711.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.