Annandale, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Annandale, VA

December 10, 2023 9:08 AM EST (14:08 UTC)
Sunrise 7:14AM   Sunset 4:48PM   Moonrise  4:49AM   Moonset 2:55PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      Help
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 633 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Monday afternoon...
Today..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 2 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 633 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters today into Monday with on and off gale conditions. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Annandale, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
      (on/off)   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 353 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front and potent area of low pressure will impact the area today into Monday morning bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow. The potent weather system pulls to the north and east Monday with high pressure building in for the middle of the workweek.

The potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy will continue to slowly pass through the Great Lakes, Tennessee Valley, and Gulf Coast states today while surface high pressure remains well offshore over the Atlantic. The cold front associated with the trough axis will slowly approach from the west during this time. This is a potent system and this can be seen by the strong meridional component to the upper-level trough axis. Therefore, warm advection and moisture advection will be strong ahead of the cold front. Also, the thermal gradient will be quite strong with subtropical air being pulled into the area ahead of the cold front and a Canadian airmass on the other side of the boundary. A strong low-level jet will also aid in moisture advection as well with pwats most likely around 3 to 4 standard deviations above climo.

Therefore, widespread rain is expected across the area today into tonight. There is some elevated instability progged in much of the latest guidance, suggesting and embedded thunderstorm is possible with the convection. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will also accompany the frontal passage later this afternoon into this evening.
afternoon/evening. Given the strong winds aloft, this has the potential to mix down gusty to perhaps even locally damaging wind gusts. One mitigating factor will be the lack of instability that is progged to be rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time (with the best chance for strong to damaging wind gusts near and east of the blue Ridge Mountains). A soaking rain is expected given the dynamics and moisture associated with this system. Rainfall amounts around 1-3" are most likely, and much of that may fall in a 3 to 6 hour period this afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas into portions of northern VA and northeastern MD where the heaviest rainfall is most likely to overlap with relatively lower FFG values due to urban areas.

Colder air will move in behind the front, first this evening in the mountains, and then later tonight from northwest to southeast across the valleys and metro areas. With the upper- level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, moderate precipitation is expected for a few hours or so behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in toward Monday morning. There will be enough cold air for rain to change to snow in some areas. As of now, it appears that the heaviest snow will be in the mountains. Winter headlines are in effect. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing accumulations.

A slushy coating to an inch of snow will make it into some of the valleys and a slushy coating may approach the metro areas.
However, the most likely scenario is for the boundary layer to remain above freezing so impact should be minimized.

The cold front will move off to the east Monday and a northwest flow will usher chilly conditions. There will be a snow showers to start along/west of the Allegheny Front (flurries may spill east) before drier air works its way into the area during the afternoon. Winter weather headlines continue through Monday morning along/west of the Allegheny Front.

The main story for Monday will be the blustery and gusty northwest winds due to low pressure rapidly intensifying to our northeast (system phases during this time). Frequent gusts around 30 to 45 mph are possible for most areas. Even stronger winds are possible over the ridges and an a Wind Advisory may be warranted. High pressure will build toward the area Monday night. Winds will gradually diminish, but it will be cold with lows in the 20s for most areas (teens in the mountains and portions of the Shenandoah Valley).

High pressure will bring dry and chilly conditions Tuesday.

Surface high pressure continues building into the region Wednesday and will be the feature dominating the weather for our area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, leading to dry conditions. A reinforcing cold front is expected to pass through Wednesday but the moisture starved air mass won't bring any precipitation. The next shot for precipitation doesn't look to approach the area until late in the weekend, if not early next week.

Guidance diverges significantly after Friday, with models disagreeing on how to develop a series of shortwaves within both the northern and southern streams. Current suite of ensembles only bring marginal PoPs into the area by Sunday at the earliest, and most suggest later at this point.

Near normal temperatures Wednesday cool to below normal going into Thursday with the passage of the reinforcing cold front, highs struggling to get out of the low 40s for most of the area Thursday after morning low temperatures well into the 20s. Temperatures moderate going into the weekend.

Widespread rain is expected with IFR to MVFR conditions most likely today into tonight. A strong low-level jet will cause low-level wind shear through midday. An embedded thunderstorm this morning into this evening.

A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will accompany the frontal passage late this afternoon into this evening. Strong winds are possible with this line of heavier activity, especially across the eastern terminals. However, overall confidence remains low due to limited instability within the boundary layer. Rain may end as a few snow showers Sunday night. A slushy coating is possible, especially around KMRB.

Gusty northwest winds are expected Monday with drier conditions.
Gusts around 25 to 35 knots are most likely. Winds will gradually diminish Monday night. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A dry cold front is expected to pass through on Wednesday, winds initially out of the west shifting to W/NW and gusting up to 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Clouds during the day clear out Wednesday night. Winds diminish and shift W/SW Thursday.

A southerly flow will strengthen today behind a warm front. An SCA is in effect for the waters today. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will pass through the waters late this afternoon and evening. This line may produce strong winds.

Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front overnight through Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters. Winds will gradually diminish Monday night, but an SCA will likely be needed. High pressure will be nearby for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Winds over the waters Wednesday increase out of the W/NW with a passing dry cold front and may hover around SCA criteria most of the day. As of now the best chance for SCAs looks to be in the late afternoon through the overnight in our southern waters, but marginal SCA conditions may warrant issuance earlier in the day. Winds diminish and shift out of the W/SW Thursday afternoon.

Widespread rainfall is expected today into early Monday morning as a strong cold front and multiple waves of low pressure pass through the region. A strengthening low level jet combined with increased warm air advection/isentropic upglide will yield efficient heavy rainfall over a 6 to 12 hour period extending from this afternoon into tonight. Rain should be stratiform initially leading to slightly lower rates per hour before turning convective with a strengthening low level jet ahead of the front this afternoon/evening. A few thunderstorms may also enhance totals east of the Blue Ridge with SBCAPE/MLCAPE values running less than 150 j/kg and 0-6km shear hovering at 40-60 kts.

PWATS ahead of the boundary per the 12 HRRR will surge into the 1.2 to 1.6" range along and east of the Blue Ridge. This aligns with the NAEFS/EPS guidance which suggest PWATS running 3 to 4 standard deviations above climo which is fairly significant for this time of year.

Storm total rainfall will range between 1.75 to 2.25 inches along and east of the Alleghenies. The probability of exceeding 2" has increased east of I-95 but remains steady elsewhere.
Fairfax, Prince William and Stafford Counties seem to stand the greatest risk of seeing any flooding.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for both the Washington DC and Baltimore metros as well northeastern Maryland and northern VA.
Urban flooding due to runoff looks to be the main concern here although smaller streams and creeks could see rises due to the amount of rain coming in a short period. Antecedent drought concerns should help limit any widespread flooding across the region.

Tidal anomalies rise today with increasing southeasterly flow. Some locations may reach minor flooding today and this evening. Strong northwesterly flow behind the cold front tonight will cause anomalies to drop sharply, eliminating coastal flooding concerns for the beginning of the week.

DC...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through late tonight for DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through late tonight for MDZ008-011-013-014-016-503>506-508.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ001.
VA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through late tonight for VAZ053>055-502-506-526-527.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ503.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for VAZ025-026-504.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for VAZ507-508.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for WVZ055-506.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Monday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ533- 534-537-541-543.

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 11 mi51 min S 4.1G6 56°F 44°F29.94
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 27 mi99 min SSE 6 52°F 29.9551°F
NCDV2 37 mi51 min ESE 4.1G5.1 53°F 48°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi51 min SSE 2.9G5.1 55°F 51°F29.95
44063 - Annapolis 42 mi45 min S 7.8G9.7 48°F 47°F1 ft
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi69 min SE 11G12 52°F 29.99
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi51 min 0G1 47°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi51 min W 1G1.9 47°F
CPVM2 46 mi51 min 53°F 53°F
FSNM2 46 mi51 min S 5.1G7 29.95
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 47 mi45 min SSE 18G25 47°F 48°F2 ft
44043 - Patapsco, MD 49 mi45 min S 7.8G9.7 49°F 45°F0 ft

toggle option: (graph/table)

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDAA DAVISON AAF,VA 9 sm8 minESE 0510 smOvercast59°F55°F88%29.93
KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA 10 sm11 minS 084 smOvercast Rain Mist 55°F54°F94%29.95
KIAD WASHINGTON DULLES INTL,VA 15 sm16 minS 053 smOvercast Thunderstorm Hvy Rain 57°F55°F94%29.94
KHEF MANASSAS RGNL/HARRY P DAVIS FIELD,VA 18 sm12 minSSW 066 smOvercast Hvy Rain Mist 57°F57°F100%29.95
KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD 19 sm13 minS 0910 smOvercast61°F57°F88%29.93
KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD 19 sm18 mincalm10 smOvercast52°F46°F82%29.95
KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA 23 sm12 minSSW 065 smOvercast Haze 55°F29.97
KGAI MONTGOMERY COUNTY AIRPARK,MD 24 sm12 minvar 049 smOvercast Thunderstorm in Vicinity Rain 55°F54°F94%29.96

Wind History from DAA
(wind in knots)

Tide / Current for Key Bridge, Washington, D.C.
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Key Bridge, Washington, D.C., Tide feet

Tide / Current for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C., Tide feet

Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help

GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   

Sterling, VA,

NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE