Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Woodburn, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:10 AM EST (16:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 942 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 942 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly build overhead through the remainder of the weekend. A strong storm system will affect the region Monday and Tuesday. Small craft advisories are likely Monday through Tuesday with gale conditions possible on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodburn, VA
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location: 38.83, -77.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 281441 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the region for the rest of the weekend. A strong storm system will impact our region late Sunday night through early Tuesday. High pressure builds back into our region from the south through the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. The sky has cleared faster than anticipated, with 9 AM temperatures already pushing 50 degrees in most areas. Although there will be some weak cold advection this afternoon, I still bumped up high temperatures a bit for today by a couple degrees in most areas. Highs will range from the lower 40s at the highest elevations to lower 60s in the Virginia Piedmont. Winds will be picking up this afternoon, adding a bit of chill, even though highs will be fairly similar to yesterday.

A cooler air mass tonight will bring temps down closer to normal for tonight, with sub-freezing temps in many rural areas and 30s in the urban centers. Light winds and clear skies will help promote this cooling.

Sunday starts sunny, but we start to see some increasing clouds later in the day as the storm near the Gulf Coast strengthens and approaches. Highs will again be in the upper 50s, just like today, but with less wind, it likely feels a little more pleasant.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Very active period Sunday night through Monday night. Strengthening trough cutting off into a closed low to our southwest Monday into Monday night will promote rapid surface low development, with the surface low rapidly propagating from Mississippi Sunday evening to western New York by Monday evening. Strong warm advection/isentropic lift on Sunday night/Monday morning plus excellent divergence aloft and strong southerly flow bringing very moist air northward should promote widespread rain late Sunday night through Monday morning. Rain tapers to showers Monday afternoon, but the potent cold front and instability plus very high shear may result in a band of gusty showers and thunderstorms crossing the region during the afternoon. Combined with the morning rain, these storms could also promote a marginal flood risk. Even without the storms, strong southerly winds could approach 40 knots in parts of southern Maryland. Behind the cold front, showers linger with the upper level system approaching, while upslope flow and rapidly falling temperatures will promote rain changing to snow showers along the Allegheny Front, with a few inches looking probable. Winter weather advisories are anticipated for our westernmost zones. More details will be forthcoming as we approach the event.

Highs Monday reach the 60s east, 50s west, then temps fall into the 20s and 30s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A robust upper low should be centered in the vicinity of the Kentucky/West Virginia border on Tuesday morning. This is the result of an earlier phasing with a southern stream shortwave. Recent guidance has backed off on keeping this system quasi- stationary in nature as it projects a northeastward push into southern Quebec by mid-week. Impressive height anomalies accompany this sprawling closed low with 1.5 to 2 sigma departures from early December climatology. As this trough sweeps overhead on Tuesday, 700-mb temperatures are likely to drop into the -10 to -15C range which would support the coldest temperatures of the season. Prolonged deep- layered west to west-northwesterly flow will support a steady period of upslope snow showers across the Allegheny Front. Thermal profiles are well below freezing with saturation up to at least 500-mb on Tuesday. Moisture is somewhat scant in nature but upslope processes should maximize the snow potential through Tuesday night. Drier air aloft will work into the region during the overnight hours with the upper low lifting away toward New England. Thus, snow shower production should halt at this point. While numbers will adjust over future forecast periods, a broad 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible along and west of the Allegheny Front.

From mid-week onward, a shortwave ridge sets up aloft as heights lower again across the nation's mid-section. This will ensure a period of drier weather through the conclusion of the work week. While surface high pressure maintains its presence through early Friday, global ensembles show upstream troughing ejecting eastward bringing additional rainfall chances into next weekend. This supports the Day 6-10 CPC Precipitation Outlook which highlights above average precipitation chances December 3-7.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will top out in the 40s across most locations with upper 20s to 30s in the higher elevations. While westerly winds will provide downslope warming effects, the accompanying 15 to 20 mph gusts should lower wind chill temperatures into the mid/upper 30s on Tuesday along and east of I- 95. Overnight temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday nights are likely to be at, or below freezing everywhere outside of spots near the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. While chilly in nature, all readings are close to, or slightly below seasonal norms. A gradual warming trend is expected by late in the week.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR through Sunday evening. Cigs/vsby likely fall to MVFR if not IFR by Monday morning as a strong storm brings widespread rain to the region. Gusty thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon with a strong cold front, with gusts possibly exceeding 40 knots.

With precipitation ending across area terminals, VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with prevailing westerly winds each day. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible at times on Tuesday.

MARINE. As winds increase this afternoon, will bring marginal SCA conditions to the central and northern tidal waters. Think gusts across the lower Potomac and middle bay fall short. Light winds return by tonight and continue into Sunday night, then increase out of the south as a strong system passes to the west. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and gales are possible. In addition, gusty thunderstorms Monday could necessitate special marine warnings. Cold front blows through by Monday night, with winds shifting from south to west and decreasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Brisk westerly winds across the area waters may support Small Craft Advisory issuances on Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore flow will increase Monday. Most guidance that goes out that far shows at least minor flooding, with SFAS showing moderate at Annapolis. The S/SE trajectory combined with strong low pressure passing just west of the waters supports widespread tidal flooding, but confidence in moderate flooding is low at this juncture given the quick-moving nature of the system.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>533-535-538>541.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . JE/RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . BRO AVIATION . RCM/BRO MARINE . JE/RCM/BRO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DHOF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 11 mi53 min NNW 6 G 9.9 57°F 50°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi101 min Calm 1017 hPa
NCDV2 37 mi53 min NW 2.9 G 6 59°F 55°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi53 min WNW 7 G 8.9 54°F 54°F
44063 - Annapolis 42 mi41 min 7.8 G 7.8 54°F 53°F1021.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi71 min W 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 53°F1018.9 hPa (+1.7)41°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi53 min NNW 7 G 12 56°F 54°F
CPVM2 46 mi53 min 55°F 42°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi53 min WNW 13 G 16 54°F
FSNM2 46 mi53 min WNW 18 G 21 54°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 47 mi41 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 54°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA7 mi75 minWNW 13 G 1810.00 miFair57°F38°F49%1018.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA11 mi79 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds55°F43°F64%1018.5 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA15 mi79 minWNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds55°F41°F59%1018.5 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair51°F46°F83%1019.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi75 minNW 1010.00 miFair55°F40°F57%1018.6 hPa
College Park Airport, MD19 mi76 minW 610.00 miFair54°F38°F56%1018.3 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA22 mi75 minSSE 48.00 miFair54°F46°F75%1018.8 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD24 mi75 minWNW 1010.00 miFair53°F39°F61%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW13
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1 day agoNW6W3Calm--CalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS7S6S8SE4S3SE6SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3S6CalmW7W8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:25 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:19 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:20 PM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.10.10.61.31.92.42.62.41.91.30.70.30.10.10.61.42.12.62.92.82.41.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:31 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:24 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:25 PM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.10.10.61.21.92.32.62.421.30.70.30.10.10.61.32.12.62.92.92.51.91.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.