Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Siasconset, MA
December 3, 2023 5:37 AM EST (10:37 UTC)
Sunrise 6:52AM Sunset 4:17PM Moonrise 11:11PM Moonset 12:42PM
ANZ915 Between 1000fm And 38.5 N West Of 69 W- 344 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..E winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt early, then, becoming W to sw 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain and areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less early.
Mon..W winds 20 to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Mon night..W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
Thu night..W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
Today..E winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt early, then, becoming W to sw 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain and areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less early.
Mon..W winds 20 to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Mon night..W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
Thu night..W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
ANZ900 Georges Bank Between 68w And The Hague Line- 330 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E to ne 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming w. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Rain and areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Mon night..W to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue night..N to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to ne. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming w. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E to ne 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming w. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Rain and areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Mon night..W to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue night..N to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to ne. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming w. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 030907 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 407 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure tracks south of New England Sunday, bringing a steady rain to the region, moderate to heavy at times. It will be chilly rain along with areas of fog into Sunday night.
Generally dry weather for much of the upcoming week, but fairly cloudy. Temperatures will be near to below normal through Thursday. Temperatures trending upward Friday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
345 AM Update...
Key Points...
* Chilly with widespread rain Sun, with highs in the upper 30s/40s * Areas of light rain/drizzle & fog linger Sun night * Any brief mix with snow confined to near 1500 ft with little impact
Water vapor satellite imagery indicates an impressive subtropical jet stretching from central Mexico northeast to the east coast, with the core of the jet 170+ kt and PWATs up to 250% of normal. These wind and moisture anomalies will contribute to a widespread rain overspreading SNE this morning, then becoming moderate to heavy at times. A robust short wave embedded within this fast flow moves across the OH Valley today and into PA. It spins up low pressure south of New England. A modest ENE jet develops with this low, providing good Atlantic inflow into SNE, but also a wind driven rain along with chilly temps, with highs only 40-45, upper 30s high terrain. But again, it will feel cooler given the brisk ENE winds this afternoon.
Despite surface low tracking south of New England and 1025+ mb high over Quebec, the lack of antecedent cold air across New England combined with mid level low tracking NW of the region, will support ptype to be all rain. There is a low probability (10-20%) that snow and/or sleet may briefly mix with the rain across the high terrain of northwest MA per model soundings. However, this will be very short lived if it even occurs, therefore little if any impact especially with surface temps at or above freezing in the high terrain.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
345 AM update...
* Steady rain transitions to light spotty rain/drizzle * A trend towards drier and cooler weather Monday
Sunday night...
Dry slot moves across CT/RI and southeast MA. This will bring an end to the steady rain and transition to light spotty rain/drizzle.
Across northern MA, deeper moisture and lift persists longer, therefore steady rain likely lingers thru the evening. Storm total rainfall will range between 0.50 to 0.75 inches, however up to an inch is possible across northern MA given the longer duration. Given the lack of cold air, temps will remain above freezing with lows in the mid to upper 30s, low 40s for southeast MA. Light NE winds in the evening become light NNW toward Monday morning.
Monday...
Short wave along the ME coast 12z Monday races eastward and is replaced by short wave ridging across SNE. This will promote mainly dry weather Monday, along with some breaks of morning sunshine, especially across CT/RI and southeast MA where the deeper dry air exists. Although with another upstream short wave approaching the region from the NW late in the day, any morning sunshine likely gives way to increasing diurnal clouds. Nonetheless, a mainly dry day along with temps at or slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Although, there will be a cool west breeze at 10-15 mph.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Highlights
* Generally dry and quiet weather for much of the upcoming week. A few spotty rain/snow showers are possible, especially across eastern areas. A bit more widespread Tue night through Wed as an inverted trough swings through.
* Temperatures trend near to below normal for much of the week.
* Will see temps rebounding late in the week and perhaps through the weekend. Next shot for widespread precip comes Sun or early next week.
Monday Night through Thursday...
Cyclonic flow in place through the vast majority of this period. A shortwave trough lifts through into early Tue. A shortwave ridge builds from the eastern Great Lakes into New England on Tue. A trough swings through late Tue through Wed. A ridge axis builds into the Great Lakes region later on Thu. High pressure nudges in from Quebec through much of this timeframe. An inverted trough slowly slides through Mon night through Wed.
Overall a fairly quiet, albeit cloudy period for southern New England. Could see spotty rain/snow showers across eastern coastal areas as the inverted trough slowly slides through. Best shot for more widespread showers is on Wed as the deeper trough lifts through. Will be quite cold with 500 hPa temps of -30 to -35 degree C. This in combination with the trough moving through will bring more widespread showers, especially across the Cape/Islands. At this point have leaned on the NBM, but suspect with the cold pool aloft there could be some activity across the interior. For now have held off from adding, but may be needed in future updates.
The big story during this timeframe will be temperatures trending downward. Will have NW to N cold air advection through much of the timeframe. The coldest air overhead at 925 hPa will be on Thu with temps of -4 to -10 degrees C. Still cold on Tue/Wed with temps of -3 to -7 degrees C. The result will be highs generally in the 30s, but there will be some 40 degree readings across the south coast on Tue/Wed. Coldest lows on Wed Night/Thu AM with fairly widespread 20s and even some teens across the interior.
Friday through Saturday...
Bit of a change from 24 hours ago. A somewhat amplified ridge builds from the Great Lakes region early on Fri into New England late in the day. The ridge builds into Nova Scotia by late Sat. A warm front lifts toward the region on Fri, while a high nudges in from Quebec/offshore of southern New England.
Generally dry and quiet weather expected. This is a bit of a change from 24 hours ago where a clipper system swung through our region.
There is still some support from a couple of ensemble members per the GEFS/GEPS and EPS guidance, but most depict a dry forecast.
Given the jump from 24 hrs ago am sticking with the NBM for now.
Will need to see how things trend as the week progresses. More confident in temperatures trending upward as flow becomes westerly or southerly, which advects milder air into our region. Highs will be near to above normal.
Better shot for more widespread precip comes late in the weekend and early into next week, but will have more details on this in the coming days.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update...
Sunday...high confidence in trends.
Widespread IFR/LIFR with rain overspreading the region this morning. It will be a steady light to moderate rain throughout the day. Areas of fog as well. NE winds 5 to 15 knots with stronger winds near the coast where periods of 20-25 knot gusts will be possible.
Sunday Night...high confidence in trends.
IFR-LIFR conditions persist much of the night, with a steady rain in the evening transitioning to more light showers/ drizzle overnight...but perhaps a bit of improvement toward 12z Monday across CT/RI/SE MA. A steady rain will last longest across northern MA to the NH border. NE winds 5 to 15 knots to more of a light W direction by daybreak Monday.
Monday...high confidence.
MVFR conditions across northern MA trend toward marginal MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly VFR and mostly dry.
West winds 5-15 kt.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends, lower on exact timing.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends, lower on exact timing.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Sunday...High Confidence.
Low pressure tracks south of New England, accompanied by ENE winds 20-30 kts along with poor vsby in rain and fog. Building seas given the long ENE fetch.
Sunday night...High confidence.
Low pressure exits across Georges Bank and then out to sea. NE winds become NNW. Rain, drizzle and fog taper off with toward morning along with improving vsbys.
Monday...High confidence.
Low pressure exits farther out to sea, with light NNW winds across the MA/RI waters. Rough seas linger, but dry weather and good vsby.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of snow showers.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ255-256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 407 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure tracks south of New England Sunday, bringing a steady rain to the region, moderate to heavy at times. It will be chilly rain along with areas of fog into Sunday night.
Generally dry weather for much of the upcoming week, but fairly cloudy. Temperatures will be near to below normal through Thursday. Temperatures trending upward Friday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
345 AM Update...
Key Points...
* Chilly with widespread rain Sun, with highs in the upper 30s/40s * Areas of light rain/drizzle & fog linger Sun night * Any brief mix with snow confined to near 1500 ft with little impact
Water vapor satellite imagery indicates an impressive subtropical jet stretching from central Mexico northeast to the east coast, with the core of the jet 170+ kt and PWATs up to 250% of normal. These wind and moisture anomalies will contribute to a widespread rain overspreading SNE this morning, then becoming moderate to heavy at times. A robust short wave embedded within this fast flow moves across the OH Valley today and into PA. It spins up low pressure south of New England. A modest ENE jet develops with this low, providing good Atlantic inflow into SNE, but also a wind driven rain along with chilly temps, with highs only 40-45, upper 30s high terrain. But again, it will feel cooler given the brisk ENE winds this afternoon.
Despite surface low tracking south of New England and 1025+ mb high over Quebec, the lack of antecedent cold air across New England combined with mid level low tracking NW of the region, will support ptype to be all rain. There is a low probability (10-20%) that snow and/or sleet may briefly mix with the rain across the high terrain of northwest MA per model soundings. However, this will be very short lived if it even occurs, therefore little if any impact especially with surface temps at or above freezing in the high terrain.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
345 AM update...
* Steady rain transitions to light spotty rain/drizzle * A trend towards drier and cooler weather Monday
Sunday night...
Dry slot moves across CT/RI and southeast MA. This will bring an end to the steady rain and transition to light spotty rain/drizzle.
Across northern MA, deeper moisture and lift persists longer, therefore steady rain likely lingers thru the evening. Storm total rainfall will range between 0.50 to 0.75 inches, however up to an inch is possible across northern MA given the longer duration. Given the lack of cold air, temps will remain above freezing with lows in the mid to upper 30s, low 40s for southeast MA. Light NE winds in the evening become light NNW toward Monday morning.
Monday...
Short wave along the ME coast 12z Monday races eastward and is replaced by short wave ridging across SNE. This will promote mainly dry weather Monday, along with some breaks of morning sunshine, especially across CT/RI and southeast MA where the deeper dry air exists. Although with another upstream short wave approaching the region from the NW late in the day, any morning sunshine likely gives way to increasing diurnal clouds. Nonetheless, a mainly dry day along with temps at or slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Although, there will be a cool west breeze at 10-15 mph.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Highlights
* Generally dry and quiet weather for much of the upcoming week. A few spotty rain/snow showers are possible, especially across eastern areas. A bit more widespread Tue night through Wed as an inverted trough swings through.
* Temperatures trend near to below normal for much of the week.
* Will see temps rebounding late in the week and perhaps through the weekend. Next shot for widespread precip comes Sun or early next week.
Monday Night through Thursday...
Cyclonic flow in place through the vast majority of this period. A shortwave trough lifts through into early Tue. A shortwave ridge builds from the eastern Great Lakes into New England on Tue. A trough swings through late Tue through Wed. A ridge axis builds into the Great Lakes region later on Thu. High pressure nudges in from Quebec through much of this timeframe. An inverted trough slowly slides through Mon night through Wed.
Overall a fairly quiet, albeit cloudy period for southern New England. Could see spotty rain/snow showers across eastern coastal areas as the inverted trough slowly slides through. Best shot for more widespread showers is on Wed as the deeper trough lifts through. Will be quite cold with 500 hPa temps of -30 to -35 degree C. This in combination with the trough moving through will bring more widespread showers, especially across the Cape/Islands. At this point have leaned on the NBM, but suspect with the cold pool aloft there could be some activity across the interior. For now have held off from adding, but may be needed in future updates.
The big story during this timeframe will be temperatures trending downward. Will have NW to N cold air advection through much of the timeframe. The coldest air overhead at 925 hPa will be on Thu with temps of -4 to -10 degrees C. Still cold on Tue/Wed with temps of -3 to -7 degrees C. The result will be highs generally in the 30s, but there will be some 40 degree readings across the south coast on Tue/Wed. Coldest lows on Wed Night/Thu AM with fairly widespread 20s and even some teens across the interior.
Friday through Saturday...
Bit of a change from 24 hours ago. A somewhat amplified ridge builds from the Great Lakes region early on Fri into New England late in the day. The ridge builds into Nova Scotia by late Sat. A warm front lifts toward the region on Fri, while a high nudges in from Quebec/offshore of southern New England.
Generally dry and quiet weather expected. This is a bit of a change from 24 hours ago where a clipper system swung through our region.
There is still some support from a couple of ensemble members per the GEFS/GEPS and EPS guidance, but most depict a dry forecast.
Given the jump from 24 hrs ago am sticking with the NBM for now.
Will need to see how things trend as the week progresses. More confident in temperatures trending upward as flow becomes westerly or southerly, which advects milder air into our region. Highs will be near to above normal.
Better shot for more widespread precip comes late in the weekend and early into next week, but will have more details on this in the coming days.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update...
Sunday...high confidence in trends.
Widespread IFR/LIFR with rain overspreading the region this morning. It will be a steady light to moderate rain throughout the day. Areas of fog as well. NE winds 5 to 15 knots with stronger winds near the coast where periods of 20-25 knot gusts will be possible.
Sunday Night...high confidence in trends.
IFR-LIFR conditions persist much of the night, with a steady rain in the evening transitioning to more light showers/ drizzle overnight...but perhaps a bit of improvement toward 12z Monday across CT/RI/SE MA. A steady rain will last longest across northern MA to the NH border. NE winds 5 to 15 knots to more of a light W direction by daybreak Monday.
Monday...high confidence.
MVFR conditions across northern MA trend toward marginal MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly VFR and mostly dry.
West winds 5-15 kt.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends, lower on exact timing.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends, lower on exact timing.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Sunday...High Confidence.
Low pressure tracks south of New England, accompanied by ENE winds 20-30 kts along with poor vsby in rain and fog. Building seas given the long ENE fetch.
Sunday night...High confidence.
Low pressure exits across Georges Bank and then out to sea. NE winds become NNW. Rain, drizzle and fog taper off with toward morning along with improving vsbys.
Monday...High confidence.
Low pressure exits farther out to sea, with light NNW winds across the MA/RI waters. Rough seas linger, but dry weather and good vsby.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of snow showers.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ255-256.
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