Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Siasconset, MA
October 11, 2024 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:52 AM Sunset 6:11 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM Moonset 12:00 AM |
ANZ094
No data
No data
ANZ005 304 Am Edt Fri Oct 11 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - High pres will build in today. Low pres will cross the region tonight then exit across the maritimes Sat. High pres will cross the region Sun. Low pres will cross the region early next week.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KBOX 110729 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warming trend arrives today into Saturday as high pressure builds south of New England, but becoming blustery on Saturday as a front crosses the region. A strong fall frontal system then affects Southern New England for Sunday and into Monday, which will bring a couple periods of steadier rains and cooler than normal temperatures. Drying out by Tuesday. Fall-like blustery conditions and below normal temperatures are favored for Tuesday and Wednesday, and highs could be some 10 degrees colder than normal. Temperatures slowly warm towards normal by the end of the work week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Shortwave ridging moves into New Eng today as high pres builds over the mid Atlc region. Not much moisture in the low levels and temps aloft are warming so expect abundant sunshine with limited to no CU development. 925 mb warming to 10-11C this afternoon, so after a chilly start temps will recover nicely with afternoon highs reaching mid-upper 60s, cooler higher terrain. It will still be a bit breezy with a well mixed boundary layer supporting NW winds 10-20 mph, but diminishing and shifting to W by later today.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Tonight...
Fairly robust mid level shortwave north of the Gt Lakes will drop SE but track well to the north toward 12z Sat. Cold front assocd with this shortwave moves southward across northern New Eng overnight.
Limited moisture with this front so not expecting any precip, with just some mid-high clouds moving through. Decent low level jet ahead of the front develops tonight. Low level inversion will prevent the stronger winds from mixing down, but we do expect modest SW winds which will become gusty overnight over the Cape/Islands where shallow mixing supports 20-30 mph gusts. The winds will result in a milder night with lows upper 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday...
The mid level shortwave moves eastward from Maine and pushes the cold front south across the region in the morning. This will be a dry frontal passage and will be followed by very dry airmass as PWATs drop to around 0.25". Full sunshine expected but it will be windy into early afternoon with soundings suggesting NW gusts up to 25-35 mph before slackening mid to late afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will lag to the north allowing for a mild day. Highs will reach mid-upper 60s, but some lower 70s possible across CT/RI and SE MA where low level temps are warmest.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Points:
* A frontal system brings the next chance at rainfall bringing periods of rain Sunday into Monday.
* Cooler airmass settles over the region through Thursday bringing below normal temperatures across southern New England.
Details:
Saturday Night through Monday:
Limited cloud cover earlier Saturday night should lead to optimal cooling. Temperatures likely drop into the mid/upper 30s for the interior and 40s closer to the coast. Clouds increase from west to east early Sunday morning ahead of the next system.
There is a good consensus among model guidance that a deep trough moves across the Great Lakes region pushing eastward across the northeast U.S. Sunday into Monday. This will bring our next chance at rainfall for southern New England. Portions of the details stay blurry with more uncertainty being expressed in the track of the low and front placement. The track itself will have influence on rain totals and rain probabilities. What we do know is that in the Sunday through Monday timeframe, there are increasing chances for areas to receive periods of rain. How the system tracks could have some influence on timing as well. A round of rain is possible as early as early Sunday morning with additional rounds moving through Sunday afternoon, overnight, and into Monday.
Plenty of moisture available ahead of this upper trough/system with precipitable water values 120-160% of normal. This will more likely support periods of moderate rain with widespread heavy rainfall unlikely. In terms of QPF, ensemble 50th percentile shows a range from 0.20-0.65" by Mon PM. The lower end of the range was highlighted by the GEFS which had a more north track. The 00z ECMWF ens trended a bit wetter than previous runs, displaying 1-1.2" for a high end (low prob)
event. Otherwise other runs stay 1" or less. Temperatures Sunday will also be uncertain as well with dependence on the position of the warm front. Given the unsettled pattern, it is more likely to see highs in the 50s with some low-mid 60s toward the south coast and on the Cape. Conditions gradually dry out Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Tuesday through Thursday:
A deep trough sliding across the northeast will keep anomalously cooler air over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. During this time frame, expect temperatures below normal in the 50s with chillier nights dropping into the 30s. There isn't a strong signal for precipitation during this period, but can't rule out a few showers each day. Breezy W/NW winds will also accompany this cool late fall- like airmass.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence.
VFR. NW wind 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt , becoming W this afternoon.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. WSW-SW wind 5-15 kt, increasing gusts to 20-25 kt Cape/Islands. Areas of LLWS developing in the interior after midnight assocd with 40+ kt westerly low level jet.
Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt, gradually diminishing in the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Saturday...High confidence.
25 kt NW gusts will diminish this morning but expect gusts to 20 kt through the day. Winds shift to W later today with increasing SW winds tonight ahead of a cold front, with gusts 25-30 kt developing.
Winds shift to NW on Sat with gusty winds continuing but gradually diminishing through the afternoon. SCA for all waters tonight into Sat.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Columbus Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-254>256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warming trend arrives today into Saturday as high pressure builds south of New England, but becoming blustery on Saturday as a front crosses the region. A strong fall frontal system then affects Southern New England for Sunday and into Monday, which will bring a couple periods of steadier rains and cooler than normal temperatures. Drying out by Tuesday. Fall-like blustery conditions and below normal temperatures are favored for Tuesday and Wednesday, and highs could be some 10 degrees colder than normal. Temperatures slowly warm towards normal by the end of the work week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Shortwave ridging moves into New Eng today as high pres builds over the mid Atlc region. Not much moisture in the low levels and temps aloft are warming so expect abundant sunshine with limited to no CU development. 925 mb warming to 10-11C this afternoon, so after a chilly start temps will recover nicely with afternoon highs reaching mid-upper 60s, cooler higher terrain. It will still be a bit breezy with a well mixed boundary layer supporting NW winds 10-20 mph, but diminishing and shifting to W by later today.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Tonight...
Fairly robust mid level shortwave north of the Gt Lakes will drop SE but track well to the north toward 12z Sat. Cold front assocd with this shortwave moves southward across northern New Eng overnight.
Limited moisture with this front so not expecting any precip, with just some mid-high clouds moving through. Decent low level jet ahead of the front develops tonight. Low level inversion will prevent the stronger winds from mixing down, but we do expect modest SW winds which will become gusty overnight over the Cape/Islands where shallow mixing supports 20-30 mph gusts. The winds will result in a milder night with lows upper 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday...
The mid level shortwave moves eastward from Maine and pushes the cold front south across the region in the morning. This will be a dry frontal passage and will be followed by very dry airmass as PWATs drop to around 0.25". Full sunshine expected but it will be windy into early afternoon with soundings suggesting NW gusts up to 25-35 mph before slackening mid to late afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will lag to the north allowing for a mild day. Highs will reach mid-upper 60s, but some lower 70s possible across CT/RI and SE MA where low level temps are warmest.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Points:
* A frontal system brings the next chance at rainfall bringing periods of rain Sunday into Monday.
* Cooler airmass settles over the region through Thursday bringing below normal temperatures across southern New England.
Details:
Saturday Night through Monday:
Limited cloud cover earlier Saturday night should lead to optimal cooling. Temperatures likely drop into the mid/upper 30s for the interior and 40s closer to the coast. Clouds increase from west to east early Sunday morning ahead of the next system.
There is a good consensus among model guidance that a deep trough moves across the Great Lakes region pushing eastward across the northeast U.S. Sunday into Monday. This will bring our next chance at rainfall for southern New England. Portions of the details stay blurry with more uncertainty being expressed in the track of the low and front placement. The track itself will have influence on rain totals and rain probabilities. What we do know is that in the Sunday through Monday timeframe, there are increasing chances for areas to receive periods of rain. How the system tracks could have some influence on timing as well. A round of rain is possible as early as early Sunday morning with additional rounds moving through Sunday afternoon, overnight, and into Monday.
Plenty of moisture available ahead of this upper trough/system with precipitable water values 120-160% of normal. This will more likely support periods of moderate rain with widespread heavy rainfall unlikely. In terms of QPF, ensemble 50th percentile shows a range from 0.20-0.65" by Mon PM. The lower end of the range was highlighted by the GEFS which had a more north track. The 00z ECMWF ens trended a bit wetter than previous runs, displaying 1-1.2" for a high end (low prob)
event. Otherwise other runs stay 1" or less. Temperatures Sunday will also be uncertain as well with dependence on the position of the warm front. Given the unsettled pattern, it is more likely to see highs in the 50s with some low-mid 60s toward the south coast and on the Cape. Conditions gradually dry out Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Tuesday through Thursday:
A deep trough sliding across the northeast will keep anomalously cooler air over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. During this time frame, expect temperatures below normal in the 50s with chillier nights dropping into the 30s. There isn't a strong signal for precipitation during this period, but can't rule out a few showers each day. Breezy W/NW winds will also accompany this cool late fall- like airmass.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence.
VFR. NW wind 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt , becoming W this afternoon.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. WSW-SW wind 5-15 kt, increasing gusts to 20-25 kt Cape/Islands. Areas of LLWS developing in the interior after midnight assocd with 40+ kt westerly low level jet.
Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt, gradually diminishing in the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Saturday...High confidence.
25 kt NW gusts will diminish this morning but expect gusts to 20 kt through the day. Winds shift to W later today with increasing SW winds tonight ahead of a cold front, with gusts 25-30 kt developing.
Winds shift to NW on Sat with gusty winds continuing but gradually diminishing through the afternoon. SCA for all waters tonight into Sat.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Columbus Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-254>256.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KACK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KACK
Wind History Graph: ACK
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Northeast
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