Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Siasconset, MA
May 17, 2024 4:08 AM EDT (08:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 2:14 PM Moonset 2:35 AM |
ANZ094
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ANZ005 1206 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - A stationary front will remain just north of the waters overnight, then slowly move across the waters on Fri. High pres then ridges across the waters through the weekend into early next week.
FXUS61 KBOX 170731 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 331 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mild across the interior today but increasing clouds and onshore winds will keep temperatures cool across eastern MA and RI.
Seasonable with scattered showers on Saturday. We are then looking at a prolonged spell of dry weather with warming temperatures starting Sunday and continuing through Wednesday.
High temperatures could approach the mid 80s by Tuesday and/or Wednesday in interior Southern New England, with temperatures in the 70s near the coasts. Our next chance for rains doesn't appear until around Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
3AM Update...
Portions of far southern New England remain under the northern fringes of the stratus deck associated with low pressure well south of the region this morning which has allowed light rain showers to filter over the Cape and Islands over the last several hours. In contrast, the interior, mainly north of the Providence to Hartford line has been persistently clear, thus, radiation fog has been able to form in locations where dewpoints have dropped below ~50F (Fitchburg, Orange, BAF Airfield). The expectation for today is that low pressure will continue to drift south as mid level ridging nudges in from the southwest, allowing for a period of sunshine this morning north and west of the I-95 corridor. Areas that are able to capitalize on a few hours of sunshine will be able to mix to ~850mb where temps hover around 8C.
Cloud cover and wind direction will have a significant influence on temperatures today, with 925mb jet holding strong over SE MA and RI, where winds will continue to gust to as high as 20kt this afternoon from the NE. So, while places in the Connecticut River Valley will warm quickly into the 70s, a significant temperature gradient will develop with areas east of approx. Worcester warming into the mid 60s this morning before synoptic flow drops temperatures into the low 60s and 50s along the immediate coastline late this afternoon.
This, "synoptic seabreeze" may extend as far inland as the I-495 corridor prior to sunset. Onshore flow will also influence the development of afternoon cloudiness.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Weak shortwave will rotate around a low centered over northern Quebec/Ontario on Saturday as low pressure south of the region pivots ever so slightly north back towards SNE. The combined influence of the shortwave as well as some convergence from onshore flow will result in scattered shower activity very late tonight through the day on Saturday. Showers will be most widespread across eastern MA and RI but even so, not expecting a washout of a day. The NAM is the most bullish of guidance hinting at the potential for up to an inch and a half of rain to fall across far northeastern MA over the period ending 00Z Sunday, but a check of the 24 QPF HRRR PMM paints a much more moderate solution with localized max QPF of around a half of an inch in Essex and northern Middlesex counties.
The temperature forecast is proving to be quite tricky for Saturday, with the wetter, cloudier guidance, such as the NAM, really leaning into onshore flow to drive highs down into the mid to upper 50s region wide! In contrast to the NAM, most other guidance depicts widespread highs in the 60s away from the immediate coastline. Given the high level of uncertainty regarding temps tomorrow afternoon, relied heavily on "consensus" guidance to derive high temperatures.
With widespread cloudiness, mixing will be limited, but should some portions of the CT River Valley be able to break out into brief period of sunshine, could see temps warm into the upper 60s in places like downtown Hartford and Windsor Locks.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Highlights:
* Significant warmup toward late-spring/early-summerlike temperatures as we move into the early to midweek period. Likely to see Tue and Wed reach into the lower to mid 80s inland!
* Outside of diminishing spotty showers early Saturday evening, mainly dry weather is expected with high pressure dominating.
Details:
Though we could still be dealing with hit or miss showers over eastern and northeast MA early Saturday evening, the forecast continues to trend more optimistically with decreasing cloudiness starting on Sunday. Expect cooler temps again near the coasts as onshore flow continues, with highs in the lower to mid 60s; while further inland, highs should push well into the 60s to the lower/mid 70s.
The main story for the early to midweek portion of the forecast is a warming trend toward late-spring/early-summerlike temperatures accompanied by dry weather, as 500 mb heights rise over Southern New England. 850 mb temps will also be steadily rising to values around +11 to +13C by Tuesday, and around +12 to +14 C by Wednesday. Warmup begins in earnest on Monday, with highs reaching into the 70s with perhaps a spot 80 degree reading in the CT and Merrimack Valleys.
Some concern for cooling seabreezes near the immediate coast and kept temps for both coasts in the mid 60s to around 70. Warmest days in the stretch look to be both Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure to our south promoting a strengthening SW pressure gradient. Several days of antecedent dry weather would also tend to favor warmer temps. That would keep the sea breeze from making any landward inroads and allow for warm temperatures to make it all the way to the eastern coast with little resistance. Outside of Cape Cod where highs still only around the mid to upper 60s, temps on Tuesday and Wednesday should soar well into the 70s for most, with lower to mid 80s in the CT/Merrimack Valleys.
This period is overall a dry one outside of spotty rain showers early Saturday evening. We may not see our next chance for rains until around Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west, but this is by no means set in stone.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Today...High Confidence
Mainly VFR with some MVFR across the Cape and Islands associated with patchy rain showers. Patchy fog will result in localized IFR across the interior through 13Z this morning. VFR will prevail for much of the area after 13Z, though MVFR/marine stratus likely to stick around for the Cape and Islands all day.
E/NE flow between 5-10kt with gusts to 20kt possible along the immediate coastline.
Friday Night... Moderate Confidence
VFR, away from the Cape and Islands where MVFR persists, to start before patchy fog development drives categories down to locally IFR. Persistent E/NE flow.
Saturday... Moderate Confidence
VFR across the CT River Valley with MVFR for eastern MA RI Saturday morning falling to MVFR/IFR during the afternoon as showers develop mid day. Onshore flow will drive cigs to as low as 003ft along the coast. Winds 5 to 15kt.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence
VFR today with onshore NE winds, gusting as high as 20kt for a brief period this afternoon. Patchy fog across the interior should remain clear of the terminal. MVFR develops overnight tonight as stratus and fog redevelops given onshore flow.
Showers possible by early Saturday morning.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Patchy fog this morning may briefly deteriorate VFR to IFR. VFR through the day before fog redevelops tonight. Light E/NE winds today, generally less than 10kt.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
3AM Update... Extended SCA for outer waters through 00-06Z Sunday
Today... High Confidence.
Any pockets of fog burning off by mid to late Fri AM. E/ENE winds 15-20 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Seas remain elevated across the outer waters, so the SCA remains.
Tonight...High confidence.
Winds remain out of the NE at 10-20 kts. Could see a return of stratus/fog across the waters late. Visibilities of 1-4 SM with the lowest across the eastern waters. Seas remain elevated so have extended the SCA through the period.
Saturday... High Confidence
Scattered showers with persistent E/NE flow. Gusts to around 15kt. Seas gradually subsiding but remain above 5ft across the outer waters, thus, extended SCA through Saturday evening.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 331 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mild across the interior today but increasing clouds and onshore winds will keep temperatures cool across eastern MA and RI.
Seasonable with scattered showers on Saturday. We are then looking at a prolonged spell of dry weather with warming temperatures starting Sunday and continuing through Wednesday.
High temperatures could approach the mid 80s by Tuesday and/or Wednesday in interior Southern New England, with temperatures in the 70s near the coasts. Our next chance for rains doesn't appear until around Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
3AM Update...
Portions of far southern New England remain under the northern fringes of the stratus deck associated with low pressure well south of the region this morning which has allowed light rain showers to filter over the Cape and Islands over the last several hours. In contrast, the interior, mainly north of the Providence to Hartford line has been persistently clear, thus, radiation fog has been able to form in locations where dewpoints have dropped below ~50F (Fitchburg, Orange, BAF Airfield). The expectation for today is that low pressure will continue to drift south as mid level ridging nudges in from the southwest, allowing for a period of sunshine this morning north and west of the I-95 corridor. Areas that are able to capitalize on a few hours of sunshine will be able to mix to ~850mb where temps hover around 8C.
Cloud cover and wind direction will have a significant influence on temperatures today, with 925mb jet holding strong over SE MA and RI, where winds will continue to gust to as high as 20kt this afternoon from the NE. So, while places in the Connecticut River Valley will warm quickly into the 70s, a significant temperature gradient will develop with areas east of approx. Worcester warming into the mid 60s this morning before synoptic flow drops temperatures into the low 60s and 50s along the immediate coastline late this afternoon.
This, "synoptic seabreeze" may extend as far inland as the I-495 corridor prior to sunset. Onshore flow will also influence the development of afternoon cloudiness.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Weak shortwave will rotate around a low centered over northern Quebec/Ontario on Saturday as low pressure south of the region pivots ever so slightly north back towards SNE. The combined influence of the shortwave as well as some convergence from onshore flow will result in scattered shower activity very late tonight through the day on Saturday. Showers will be most widespread across eastern MA and RI but even so, not expecting a washout of a day. The NAM is the most bullish of guidance hinting at the potential for up to an inch and a half of rain to fall across far northeastern MA over the period ending 00Z Sunday, but a check of the 24 QPF HRRR PMM paints a much more moderate solution with localized max QPF of around a half of an inch in Essex and northern Middlesex counties.
The temperature forecast is proving to be quite tricky for Saturday, with the wetter, cloudier guidance, such as the NAM, really leaning into onshore flow to drive highs down into the mid to upper 50s region wide! In contrast to the NAM, most other guidance depicts widespread highs in the 60s away from the immediate coastline. Given the high level of uncertainty regarding temps tomorrow afternoon, relied heavily on "consensus" guidance to derive high temperatures.
With widespread cloudiness, mixing will be limited, but should some portions of the CT River Valley be able to break out into brief period of sunshine, could see temps warm into the upper 60s in places like downtown Hartford and Windsor Locks.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Highlights:
* Significant warmup toward late-spring/early-summerlike temperatures as we move into the early to midweek period. Likely to see Tue and Wed reach into the lower to mid 80s inland!
* Outside of diminishing spotty showers early Saturday evening, mainly dry weather is expected with high pressure dominating.
Details:
Though we could still be dealing with hit or miss showers over eastern and northeast MA early Saturday evening, the forecast continues to trend more optimistically with decreasing cloudiness starting on Sunday. Expect cooler temps again near the coasts as onshore flow continues, with highs in the lower to mid 60s; while further inland, highs should push well into the 60s to the lower/mid 70s.
The main story for the early to midweek portion of the forecast is a warming trend toward late-spring/early-summerlike temperatures accompanied by dry weather, as 500 mb heights rise over Southern New England. 850 mb temps will also be steadily rising to values around +11 to +13C by Tuesday, and around +12 to +14 C by Wednesday. Warmup begins in earnest on Monday, with highs reaching into the 70s with perhaps a spot 80 degree reading in the CT and Merrimack Valleys.
Some concern for cooling seabreezes near the immediate coast and kept temps for both coasts in the mid 60s to around 70. Warmest days in the stretch look to be both Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure to our south promoting a strengthening SW pressure gradient. Several days of antecedent dry weather would also tend to favor warmer temps. That would keep the sea breeze from making any landward inroads and allow for warm temperatures to make it all the way to the eastern coast with little resistance. Outside of Cape Cod where highs still only around the mid to upper 60s, temps on Tuesday and Wednesday should soar well into the 70s for most, with lower to mid 80s in the CT/Merrimack Valleys.
This period is overall a dry one outside of spotty rain showers early Saturday evening. We may not see our next chance for rains until around Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west, but this is by no means set in stone.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Today...High Confidence
Mainly VFR with some MVFR across the Cape and Islands associated with patchy rain showers. Patchy fog will result in localized IFR across the interior through 13Z this morning. VFR will prevail for much of the area after 13Z, though MVFR/marine stratus likely to stick around for the Cape and Islands all day.
E/NE flow between 5-10kt with gusts to 20kt possible along the immediate coastline.
Friday Night... Moderate Confidence
VFR, away from the Cape and Islands where MVFR persists, to start before patchy fog development drives categories down to locally IFR. Persistent E/NE flow.
Saturday... Moderate Confidence
VFR across the CT River Valley with MVFR for eastern MA RI Saturday morning falling to MVFR/IFR during the afternoon as showers develop mid day. Onshore flow will drive cigs to as low as 003ft along the coast. Winds 5 to 15kt.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence
VFR today with onshore NE winds, gusting as high as 20kt for a brief period this afternoon. Patchy fog across the interior should remain clear of the terminal. MVFR develops overnight tonight as stratus and fog redevelops given onshore flow.
Showers possible by early Saturday morning.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Patchy fog this morning may briefly deteriorate VFR to IFR. VFR through the day before fog redevelops tonight. Light E/NE winds today, generally less than 10kt.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
3AM Update... Extended SCA for outer waters through 00-06Z Sunday
Today... High Confidence.
Any pockets of fog burning off by mid to late Fri AM. E/ENE winds 15-20 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Seas remain elevated across the outer waters, so the SCA remains.
Tonight...High confidence.
Winds remain out of the NE at 10-20 kts. Could see a return of stratus/fog across the waters late. Visibilities of 1-4 SM with the lowest across the eastern waters. Seas remain elevated so have extended the SCA through the period.
Saturday... High Confidence
Scattered showers with persistent E/NE flow. Gusts to around 15kt. Seas gradually subsiding but remain above 5ft across the outer waters, thus, extended SCA through Saturday evening.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256.
Upton, NY,
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