Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mantua, VA
May 19, 2024 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:50 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM Moonset 2:45 AM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 134 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers.
Tonight - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 134 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will gradually progress offshore today before high pressure builds over the waters on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system settles south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
low pressure will gradually progress offshore today before high pressure builds over the waters on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system settles south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 191406 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will drift off the Carolina Coast through today. High pressure will build overhead Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Midwest Wednesday, then cross by Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-MORNING UPDATE...
Visible satellite shows some clearing of the thin low clouds this morning, primarily along the mountains and portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Earlier this morning a boundary cut west from the Potomac and cleared skies around IAD briefly, which has now filled back in. Overall the cloud is thin however, with some visible thinning and breaks. Reduced visibility from patchy fog is currently restricted to near Baltimore with the marine layer.
Gradual improvement in conditions is expected through the day.
Hires guidance suggests high end MVFR only by this afternoon, but could reach high end MVFR/low end VFR by late morning for some TAF sites, especially west of DCA without the influence of the marine layer.
Guidance currently suggests isolated to widely scattered showers at most this afternoon, focused along the mountains and east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures today remain dependent on cloud clearing, but still anticipate 70s for most of the area. May have to adjust MaxT within the next few hours based on obs.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals abundant stratus. The cloud layer is somewhat thin per regional soundings, so some breaks in the clouds are possible through the morning hours.
Where these breaks develop prior to sunrise, fog may develop given the saturated near surface layer and recent rain. A spotty sprinkle, shower, or drizzle is possible in continued E/NE flow through early this morning.
Clouds should gradually lift and erode today as dry air attempts to filter in ever so slowly. A lingering axis of low-level moisture combined with daytime heating could result in a couple of showers by later this afternoon, focused (1) east of the Blue Ridge where low- level moisture may be a bit higher, and (2) near the Appalachians with slightly more lift aided by terrain circulations. A couple members of the 00z HRRR have a few inches of rain near the ridges just west of Highland County, which bears monitoring.
High temperatures today are expected to be warmer than recent days, into the 70s for most, but exact values will be contingent on cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the 50s to near 60 with patches of fog and low clouds possible.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An elongated upper trough will continue to pull away from the Carolina coast. At the same time, a broad ridge begins to settle over the Eastern Seaboard. Subsidence within the column will begin to squash any rain shower chances during the first couple of days of the work week. However, the surface pattern does maintain easterly onshore gradients on Monday. Consequently, an area of low stratus is likely to linger during the morning hours. Model guidance gradually shows this low cloud deck should erode by midday which leads to a mixed bag of sun and clouds.
Ample warming given mid-May solar insolation angles will help raise high temperatures into the upper 70s. Some low 80s are possible across the Shenandoah Valley and Allegheny mountain valleys where morning cloud cover burns off earlier. For the overnight hours, light southerly winds underneath clear skies will yield some patchy fog over the area. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.
Ridging aloft persists coupled with a shift to a low-level warm advection pattern. This combination will yield further warming along with a gradual uptick in humidity levels. However, for mid to late May standards, dew point temperatures do remain fairly in check. Additionally, expect a mainly sunny skies across the region with skies remaining mostly clear into the night.
Forecast high temperatures rise into the low to perhaps mid 80s, with 70s over the mountains. The shift to southerly flow will make for a slightly milder night with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper ridging eventually begins to break down in response to upstream height falls across the Midwest to Great Lakes region.
Relative to previous days, the slowing trend has generally held which brings the associated cold front through the I-95 corridor midday Thursday. In advance of this frontal system, instability increases owing to warmer temperatures and additional moisture content. Multi-ensemble CAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg on Wednesday before rising into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by Thursday afternoon. With the approach of the front, it remains to be seen if the increasing vertical shear can coincide with the higher CAPE values. While uncertain, there is a strong to severe thunderstorm risk, especially by Thursday. Mid-week temperatures will rise into the mid/upper 80s, accompanied by dew points into the mid 60s. Depending on the exact timing of this front, some stormy conditions could persist into the evening as well.
To finish out the work week, the Mid-Atlantic region will be in a post-frontal environment with prevailing northwesterly flow.
Temperatures fall off by around 5 degrees, but the bigger change is the decrease in humidity owing to the wind shift. This frontal zone drops down near the Virginia/North Carolina border before lifting back to the north by late Friday into Saturday.
Given the frontal boundary nearby, shower chances return to start off next weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty in the pattern, so it will be difficult to say with confidence if it will be another wet weekend.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Early morning observations (as of 06z) at the TAF sites show generally MVFR CIGs with patchy mist and light to calm winds.
LAMP/NAM guidance continues to show lowering CIGs through daybreak to IFR, though most guidance has been shrinking the window of IFR potential. Any breaks in the clouds, however, could yield to quick development of fog given nearly saturated low levels and recent rain.
VFR should return 16-18z today. A spotty shower can't be ruled out, but any associated restrictions should be brief and thunder potential looks too low to include in the TAF at this juncture.
Additional low clouds and fog may develop given lingering low-level moisture and light winds tonight into Monday, and again Monday night into Tuesday, but otherwise mainly VFR and dry weather is expected.
A cold front will slowly approach the area by mid-week before crossing through the I-95 corridor by midday Thursday. The increasing shower and thunderstorm chances may afford some restrictions, particularly late Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the cold front, winds shift to westerly for the second half of Thursday.
MARINE
Light NE to SE winds are expected over the next few days as high pressure scoots overhead and then offshore. Other than a pop up shower this afternoon, dry weather is expected early this week.
Increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front may lead to some channeling effects Wednesday evening into the night. This could approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds across portions of the waters. A cold front tracks through midday Thursday which brings an accompanying risk of showers and thunderstorms.
Special Marine Warnings may be required for the stronger storms.
Winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
While tidal levels are currently elevated, a shift to northeasterly winds should help gradually reduce the risk for coastal flooding. However, the more sensitive locations like the Southwest D.C. Waterfront and Annapolis could see minor flooding during the next high tide or two. Anomalies do creep back up again late Sunday into Monday. This is in response to a light wind which may allow some of the elevated water levels to slosh back. Winds turn more easterly again on Monday yielding the further rises. Additional tidal flooding is possible as this occurs.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will drift off the Carolina Coast through today. High pressure will build overhead Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Midwest Wednesday, then cross by Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-MORNING UPDATE...
Visible satellite shows some clearing of the thin low clouds this morning, primarily along the mountains and portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Earlier this morning a boundary cut west from the Potomac and cleared skies around IAD briefly, which has now filled back in. Overall the cloud is thin however, with some visible thinning and breaks. Reduced visibility from patchy fog is currently restricted to near Baltimore with the marine layer.
Gradual improvement in conditions is expected through the day.
Hires guidance suggests high end MVFR only by this afternoon, but could reach high end MVFR/low end VFR by late morning for some TAF sites, especially west of DCA without the influence of the marine layer.
Guidance currently suggests isolated to widely scattered showers at most this afternoon, focused along the mountains and east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures today remain dependent on cloud clearing, but still anticipate 70s for most of the area. May have to adjust MaxT within the next few hours based on obs.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals abundant stratus. The cloud layer is somewhat thin per regional soundings, so some breaks in the clouds are possible through the morning hours.
Where these breaks develop prior to sunrise, fog may develop given the saturated near surface layer and recent rain. A spotty sprinkle, shower, or drizzle is possible in continued E/NE flow through early this morning.
Clouds should gradually lift and erode today as dry air attempts to filter in ever so slowly. A lingering axis of low-level moisture combined with daytime heating could result in a couple of showers by later this afternoon, focused (1) east of the Blue Ridge where low- level moisture may be a bit higher, and (2) near the Appalachians with slightly more lift aided by terrain circulations. A couple members of the 00z HRRR have a few inches of rain near the ridges just west of Highland County, which bears monitoring.
High temperatures today are expected to be warmer than recent days, into the 70s for most, but exact values will be contingent on cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the 50s to near 60 with patches of fog and low clouds possible.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An elongated upper trough will continue to pull away from the Carolina coast. At the same time, a broad ridge begins to settle over the Eastern Seaboard. Subsidence within the column will begin to squash any rain shower chances during the first couple of days of the work week. However, the surface pattern does maintain easterly onshore gradients on Monday. Consequently, an area of low stratus is likely to linger during the morning hours. Model guidance gradually shows this low cloud deck should erode by midday which leads to a mixed bag of sun and clouds.
Ample warming given mid-May solar insolation angles will help raise high temperatures into the upper 70s. Some low 80s are possible across the Shenandoah Valley and Allegheny mountain valleys where morning cloud cover burns off earlier. For the overnight hours, light southerly winds underneath clear skies will yield some patchy fog over the area. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.
Ridging aloft persists coupled with a shift to a low-level warm advection pattern. This combination will yield further warming along with a gradual uptick in humidity levels. However, for mid to late May standards, dew point temperatures do remain fairly in check. Additionally, expect a mainly sunny skies across the region with skies remaining mostly clear into the night.
Forecast high temperatures rise into the low to perhaps mid 80s, with 70s over the mountains. The shift to southerly flow will make for a slightly milder night with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper ridging eventually begins to break down in response to upstream height falls across the Midwest to Great Lakes region.
Relative to previous days, the slowing trend has generally held which brings the associated cold front through the I-95 corridor midday Thursday. In advance of this frontal system, instability increases owing to warmer temperatures and additional moisture content. Multi-ensemble CAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg on Wednesday before rising into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by Thursday afternoon. With the approach of the front, it remains to be seen if the increasing vertical shear can coincide with the higher CAPE values. While uncertain, there is a strong to severe thunderstorm risk, especially by Thursday. Mid-week temperatures will rise into the mid/upper 80s, accompanied by dew points into the mid 60s. Depending on the exact timing of this front, some stormy conditions could persist into the evening as well.
To finish out the work week, the Mid-Atlantic region will be in a post-frontal environment with prevailing northwesterly flow.
Temperatures fall off by around 5 degrees, but the bigger change is the decrease in humidity owing to the wind shift. This frontal zone drops down near the Virginia/North Carolina border before lifting back to the north by late Friday into Saturday.
Given the frontal boundary nearby, shower chances return to start off next weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty in the pattern, so it will be difficult to say with confidence if it will be another wet weekend.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Early morning observations (as of 06z) at the TAF sites show generally MVFR CIGs with patchy mist and light to calm winds.
LAMP/NAM guidance continues to show lowering CIGs through daybreak to IFR, though most guidance has been shrinking the window of IFR potential. Any breaks in the clouds, however, could yield to quick development of fog given nearly saturated low levels and recent rain.
VFR should return 16-18z today. A spotty shower can't be ruled out, but any associated restrictions should be brief and thunder potential looks too low to include in the TAF at this juncture.
Additional low clouds and fog may develop given lingering low-level moisture and light winds tonight into Monday, and again Monday night into Tuesday, but otherwise mainly VFR and dry weather is expected.
A cold front will slowly approach the area by mid-week before crossing through the I-95 corridor by midday Thursday. The increasing shower and thunderstorm chances may afford some restrictions, particularly late Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the cold front, winds shift to westerly for the second half of Thursday.
MARINE
Light NE to SE winds are expected over the next few days as high pressure scoots overhead and then offshore. Other than a pop up shower this afternoon, dry weather is expected early this week.
Increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front may lead to some channeling effects Wednesday evening into the night. This could approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds across portions of the waters. A cold front tracks through midday Thursday which brings an accompanying risk of showers and thunderstorms.
Special Marine Warnings may be required for the stronger storms.
Winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
While tidal levels are currently elevated, a shift to northeasterly winds should help gradually reduce the risk for coastal flooding. However, the more sensitive locations like the Southwest D.C. Waterfront and Annapolis could see minor flooding during the next high tide or two. Anomalies do creep back up again late Sunday into Monday. This is in response to a light wind which may allow some of the elevated water levels to slosh back. Winds turn more easterly again on Monday yielding the further rises. Additional tidal flooding is possible as this occurs.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 12 mi | 53 min | ENE 1G | 67°F | 30.00 | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 29 mi | 101 min | N 1.9 | 68°F | 30.01 | 62°F | ||
| NCDV2 | 38 mi | 53 min | SW 1.9G | 68°F | 29.98 | |||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 42 mi | 53 min | WNW 2.9G | 71°F | 29.99 | |||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 43 mi | 47 min | 0G | 69°F | 66°F | 1 ft | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 43 mi | 71 min | N 4.1G | 65°F | 30.04 | |||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 46 mi | 53 min | SSE 2.9G | 67°F | ||||
| CBCM2 | 46 mi | 53 min | S 1.9G | 69°F | 29.99 | |||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 46 mi | 53 min | S 2.9G | |||||
| CPVM2 | 47 mi | 83 min | 66°F | 63°F | ||||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 48 mi | 47 min | NW 9.7G | 63°F | 65°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 11 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KIAD WASHINGTON DULLES INTL,VA | 13 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KHEF MANASSAS RGNL/HARRY P DAVIS FIELD,VA | 17 sm | 15 min | SE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.01 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 20 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 59°F | 69% | 30.01 | |
| KGAI MONTGOMERY COUNTY AIRPARK,MD | 23 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.02 | |
| KJYO LEESBURG EXECUTIVE,VA | 23 sm | 16 min | NNE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.02 | |
| KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA | 24 sm | 15 min | E 03 | 7 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.01 |
Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT 2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT 2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.8 |
| 6 am |
| 3.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.8 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:05 PM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT 2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:05 PM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT 2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.9 |
| 6 am |
| 3.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.8 |
| 9 am |
| 2.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Sterling, VA,
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