Sunday, June13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manitou Springs, CO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday June 13, 2021 8:30 AM MDT (14:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:09AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitou Springs, CO
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location: 38.85, -104.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 130959 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 359 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 359 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Currently . Very isolated dense fog is being over northern El Paso County, otherwise a cirrus shield from an overnight MCS located over Texas remains in place over the extreme southeastern plains.

The synoptic set-up for Sunday and Monday morning is an upper level ridge propagating from southern New Mexico and Arizona up to central and northern New Mexico and Arizona. Mid-level shortwaves will be embedded in the northern extent of the upper level ridge, providing synoptic ascent to initiate thunderstorms over the Palmer Divide/El Paso County, the Wet Mountains, and the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The surface flow will look similar to yesterday, with south-southeast flow advecting moisture over the southeast plains. The main difference is that the surface flow is over the highway 50 corridor and north where the flow will be oriented more easterly. CAMs are not excited about much happening after the initial updrafts form over the aforementioned areas. Over Crowley, Otero, and eastern Las Animas Counties there is a mid-level cap, so if thunderstorms are to continue to propagate easterly they'll need to overcome the less favorable environment . again most of the CAMs aren't resolving that they do survive the cap. So to summarize our latest thoughts on the storms today, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the I-25 corridor today from 1-3PM, dissipating as they move easterly into a capped environment. Isolated PoPs were included over Baca County during the mid afternoon to incorporate a low end chance for an isolated storm to develop.

Main Severe Threats:

Over the Palmer Divide and the Raton Mesa around 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE is being resolved around the time of convection initiation, LCLs are around 6kft-10kft, 0-6km bulk shear values are around 35 kts, whereas the Effective Inflow SRH is only around 35 m2/s2, and the hodographs where the instability is located is straight. There is an inverted-V signature with the forecast soundings, as well. So overall today should be more of a wind risk with values under the strongest storms around 60-70 mph and an isolated 1 to 1.5" inch hail risk. Similar to yesterday, LCLs are quite high over the I-25 corridor, so tornadoes are not expected. That being said, the LCLs over the Palmer Divide are around 3kft, so if an isolated tornado were to occur, it would be up there.

Outside of the severe risk today, it will be hot once again with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s over the plains and mountain valleys, and the 70s to low 80s over Teller and Lake Counties. Yesterday a record high temperatures was broken in Alamosa and we are forecasting to tie the record this afternoon. Low temperatures will be in the 60s over the plains and the 40s to low 50s over the mountain valleys and Teller County.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 359 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

. Near record high temperatures mid week .

Monday. Any convection near the Kansas border early Monday will continue moving east into Kansas. A ridge aloft builds into the region starting a period of near record heat through mid week. With warm and dry air aloft, the atmosphere looks to be capped on the plains with mostly dry conditions. With the dry air aloft, the mountains will mostly stay dry. A couple of the models suggest enough moisture for a few storms in the Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the afternoon and left these isolated PoPs in the grids.

Tuesday through Thursday. Warm ridge aloft remains over the central Rockies. The core of the hottest air remains west of the Continental Divide; however, temperatures will still approach records highs with the hottest day being Wednesday. A modest plume of monsoon moisture will move into the region with some high based convection possible over the mountains during the afternoon and into the evening. For fire weather concerns, humidities fall to around 15 percent on the plains and down to around 10 percent in some of the mountains areas. However, winds mostly stay below critical values and fuels are generally green.

Friday and Saturday. As a trough moves over the northern Rockies and into the high plains, a cold front will move through the region brining upslope to the eastern plains and into the eastern mountains. To early to know about the amount of moisture returning onto the plains, but generally the chances for convection will increase Friday and Saturday with the more moist upslope flow. The ridge aloft weakens, but still anticipate above normal temperatures especially in the mountains. --PGW--

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 359 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021

VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the forecast period. KCOS and KPUB, both have a chance for thunderstorms to develop over the forecast terminal, in particular KCOS has the best chance. Expect gusty and erratic outflows develop around thunderstorms during the afternoon, with the possibility MVFR or IFR if a thunderstorm develops directly over the forecast terminals. By the early evening thunderstorms are expected to dissipate.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . SKELLY LONG TERM . PGW AVIATION . SKELLY


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Air Force Academy, CO11 mi33 minN 710.00 miFair64°F64°F99%1015.7 hPa
City of Colorado Springs Municipal Airport, CO11 mi37 minENE 410.00 miA Few Clouds69°F61°F76%1015.4 hPa
Butts Army Airfield (Fort Carson), CO14 mi93 minN 310.00 miFair64°F58°F82%1017.1 hPa
Meadow Lake Airport, CO20 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair66°F60°F82%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOS

Wind History from COS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE11S7SE12
G15
SE12SE12
G20
S16SE17
G27
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G25
S16SE16SE17SE10SE4E7E9NE6CalmW3N6N6N6N4E4
1 day agoN20NE10E8E14
G17
S9
G19
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G21
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G22
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G24
S15S11SE7S6CalmCalmSE6SE6SE8SE7SE8E7CalmS5
2 days agoE33S5S14
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G25
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G31
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G26
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S16
G23
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G29
SW15SW12SW10SW8W11NW5N8N12NW8SE5N4NE20
G28
NE25
G32

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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