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FXUS65 KPUB 281737 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1137 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering snow showers will continue over the mountains and higher terrain of Teller and El Paso County this morning.
Patchy freezing fog is possible for portions of the Palmer Divide.

- Showers/high elevation snow showers, and a few thunderstorms, will develop later in the day over the higher terrain and then move out over the plains during the evening. There is low confidence (less than 30 percent) that some of these showers/storms may produce flash flooding for burn scar and urbanized areas.

- Warming trend through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today...

The major shortwave will continue to progress towards the east. The associated surface low pressure is located to the northeast this morning, with some wrap-around moisture providing lingering snow showers over the higher terrain of Teller and El Paso counties. With low-level moisture in place, there could also be some isolated areas of freezing fog creeping over parts of the Palmer Divide during the early morning hours, which could create some slick road conditions if this occurs. These light snow showers will continue to taper off throughout the morning hours as the surface low pulls away. There is also going to be some snow continuing over the higher terrain due to an upper level low on the backside of the major shortwave trough that is currently located over Four Corners area. By later in the day, this will begin to progress eastward and provide the instability, along with residual moisture and orographic lifting to trigger some development of showers and a few thunderstorms by later in the afternoon.

Given that the mid-level flow will be primarily out of the west and the progression of the upper level low towards the east will allow for the convection to move off the mountains and over into the plains towards the evening hours. With this, there could be some additional snow accumulations for the higher elevations. CAPE values are not that impressive, so these should remain more of your garden variety type thunderstorms with little confidence that anything will become strong. The biggest threat if this does occur will be some gusty outflow winds to possibly 50 mph, and hail of up to half inch in size. Given where the position of the upper level low will be, the best chance of a thunderstorm becoming stronger would be over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Wet Mountains, and over the adjacent plains in the Walsenburg area, where the slightly better CAPE (of nearly 1000 J/kg) will be. That being said, there is low confidence (less than 30 percent) that some of these heavier showers and/or thunderstorms could put down a good amount of rain in a short period of time and result in flash flooding, especially for the burn scar and urbanized areas.

With northwesterly flow still in place over the region, temperature will still be on the cooler side, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the plains, to the 50s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley. It will be generally in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, although the highest peaks will likely only max out in the 20s.

Tonight...

Showers and storms during the evening hours over the eastern plains will continue to dissipate and move towards the east and out of the CWA by early in the morning hours of Monday, mainly over the far southeastern plains, Baca County in particular. Otherwise, as high pressure begins to build back in, skies will begin to clear for most locations going through the night. With the cooler air in place, temperatures will drop into the 30s for most locations across the plains, with lows falling into the teens and 20s for high country.
-Stewey

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday and Tuesday...Increasing westerly flow aloft across the region will usher in mainly dry and much warmer conditions to start the work week. Long range models are indicating a slight upper disturbance crossing the Rocky Mt region on Tue, but right now it likes like the main effects from this feature will remain across the northern half of CO. Save for some isolated shower activity across the higher elevations of Lake County, plan on dry conditions with highs on Mon in the 60s for the high valleys and upper 60s to upper 70s for the plains. On Tue it really starts heating up, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions return to the San Luis Valley on Tue.

Wednesday...A stronger upper low pressure system crosses the Rockies on Wed, producing increased west-southwest flow across the state as well as pushing a cold front south across the forecast area during the afternoon. Current forecast trend is for another very warm day across the area before the front arrives, and with the stronger surface winds high fire danger will be likely for the San Luis Valley and along the southern border. Once the front pushes south across the Palmer Divide some time in the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread across the eastern plains. Maximum temps are expected to climb into the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Thursday and Friday...Upper system exits the region on Thu, with cooler northwest flow aloft settling in to end the work week. Post- frontal conditions across the eastern plains will make for widespread precip chances on Thu, then gradually diminishing activity through Fri. Plan on cooler temps both days, with highs on Fri in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most locations on Thu, then 60s across the high valleys and 60s to around 70F for the plains on Fri.

Saturday...Low confidence at this time on the forecast for the weekend, though long range models point to Colorado being under generally weak westerly flow aloft, as another low pressure system takes shape just off the West Coast. Temps will warm 5 to 10 degrees above the previous days. Moore

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR cigs at KCOS should break and lift by 21z while ALS and KPUB remain VFR. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the mountains this afternoon and drift off into the adjacent valleys and plains late this afternoon and evening.
KALS has the best chance for -SHRA at the terminal so have included a tempo group. VCSH should suffice for now at KPUB and KCOS due to lower probabilities. VFR cigs will be possible with -SHRA through 02z then skies will clear overnight. Winds will be predominantly terrain driven, except near showers. -KT



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