Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Manitou Springs, CO

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 2:17 PM MDT (20:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitou Springs, CO
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location: 38.85, -104.93     debug

Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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Fxus65 kpub 212015
area forecast discussion
national weather service pueblo co
215 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 212 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019

Strong to severe storms this afternoon...

currently... Radar is starting to light up across southern colorado
this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed nicely into the 80s across
the plains. Winds have been easterly banking moisture up against
the eastern mountains and providing low level upslope flow.

This afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop across much of the region. Given the moisture, low level
upslope flow and high instability over the area, a couple of storms
that develop may become strong to severe. Primary threats will be
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, hail to 2 inches in diameter and
gusty outflow winds. Models have been focusing areas over EL paso
county for this afternoon, and dropping a strong storm south
southeast into pueblo county by late afternoon. Other cells that
develop across the area may also become strong. Flash flooding will
be a threat, especially over area burn scars and urban areas. If
you should encounter flash flooding, remember, turn around, don't
drown! Storms will shift eastward through the evening hours across
the plains. Strong to severe storms will remain possible as they
track east. Models are in general agreement with storms ending for
the colorado springs and pueblo areas by 9 pm.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will continue east into kansas
overnight tonight. Winds will be light across the region once
storms exit the area into Thursday morning. Overnight lows will
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday... After a quiet morning, another round of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over much
of southern colorado. Low level flow will increase out of the
southeast by mid morning helping to keep low level moisture in place
across the region. Expect initial thunderstorm development by late
morning over the mountains. As we progress into the afternoon hours,
this activity will shift eastward into the i-25 corridor. Although
coverage looks to be more scattered in nature, a few of these storms
could become strong, and produce locally heavy rainfall. Burn scars
will have to be monitored for heavy rainfall. Lightning, small hail
and gusty outflow winds will also be possible. Afternoon highs will
reach into the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations. Mozley

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 212 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019

Thursday night and Friday Ongoing convection Thursday evening
will move eastward and gradually weaken. On Friday, trough will
move across northern rockies with CWA being on the southern edge of
the disturbance. Nbm grids have the lower level moisture on the
eastern plains decreasing during the day, with more moisture
remaining near the kansas border. There will still be enough
moisture for afternoon and evening thunderstorms and did not alter
nbm pop or QPF grids. The latest eta, GFS and ec are hinting that
more moisture may remain in the plains during the afternoon and
evening, especially closer to the kansas border and over kiowa
county. If this trend continues, anticipate better chances for
stronger storms on Friday over th eastern plains. Will not make any
changes to grids at this time, and will wait and see if trend
continues in more members of the nbm.

Saturday and Sunday It will be hot and dry over the region as
upper ridge along the west coast expands eastward. Northwest flow
aloft will bring warm and dry mild level air into the region. Lee
trough develops with deeper low level moisture moving eastward.

Precipitable water values approach values one standard deviation
below normal. Sunday looks to be the hottest day and grids already
have highs equal or 1 degree below record highs at alamosa, colorado
spring, and pueblo. Cannot totally rule out an isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains with light, if any, rainfall.

Monday through Wednesday A mean trough develops over the high
plains with a ridge off the west coast. As one disturbance moves
into the northern high plains, a weak cold front could pass over the
region Monday. There will be a modest increase in precipitation
chances especially over the plains and eastern mountains with some
modest cooling. The slight cooling and moistening trend continues on
Tuesday. A stronger cold front looks to pass over the region
sometime later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday could be a
cooler and wetter day over the region as more abundant low level
moisture moves onto the plains and eastern mountains. -pgw--

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 212 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019
kals... A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms that have developed
over the mountains will spread east into the san luis valley.

Confidence in one of these storms hitting the terminal continues to
be low. The most likely time frame for storms will be through 00z
this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the
terminal into Thursday afternoon. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible.

Kcos and kpub... Showers and thunderstorms have been developing
across the region and are forecast to move across the terminals
through this evening. Strong winds, small hail, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with passing storms.

Storms may impact the terminals through 03z. Once storms move away
from the area,VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible by Thursday
afternoon. Mozley

Pub watches warnings advisories

Short term... Mozley
long term... Pgw
aviation... Mozley

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Air Force Academy, CO11 mi79 minSE 3 G 1510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity80°F49°F35%1013.7 hPa
City Of Colorado Springs Municipal Airport, CO11 mi23 minSSE 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F53°F37%1013.1 hPa
Fort Carson, CO14 mi79 minESE 710.00 mi82°F53°F38%1015.9 hPa
Meadow Lake Airport, CO20 mi22 minSSE 610.00 miFair81°F48°F32%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOS

Wind History from COS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE14----NE4SE4NE5NE12----------NW8--E10NE16------E5NE7E6SE6SE6
1 day ago--S4S66
2 days agoS12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pueblo, CO (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pueblo, CO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.