Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 2:38 PM   Moonset 2:20 AM

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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 134 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers.Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 252 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Showers and lightning storms are forecast across the local waters this afternoon and evening along a pinned sea breeze boundary. A front will then approach the local waters Sunday, bringing increased chances for rain and lightning storms, as well as the threat for isolated to scattered strong storms Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will remain over the western atlantic through midweek which will keep daily shower and storm chances in the forecast over the local atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 17th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KPHI 181917 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure slides by to the south tonight before moving offshore. High pressure then builds across our area on Sunday through Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
310 PM...As of mid afternoon, there's still some rain ongoing across portions of the area...mainly over eastern PA into NJ but some additional showers have also developed farther to the west over Maryland. This is all in association with a decaying system as it move across the area from west to east. We will continue to see this light rain and showers affecting the area through the afternoon before the precip diminishes through early this evening as the best upper forcing moves off the coast. In its wake though, there really won't be much of a push of drier air as the low levels winds remain light out of the east. This will keep low cloud cover socked in for tonight. There could also be some patchy fog around as well as some drizzle and maybe a few sprinkles around. Expect overnight lows tonight will be generally in the 50s.

As we head into the day Sunday, weak surface ridging will try to gradually build back in over the area as ridging in the upper levels starts to build back into the north. Despite this occuring, the surface winds will remain onshore out of the east/northeast and I expect this will keep the overcast stratus deck locked in at least through the morning. It's possible that by later in the afternoon we could start to see some partial clearing occur, especially over NE PA into NW NJ. Some of the models are showing some light precip occuring in the afternoon around Chester north into Berks Counties but there really just doesn't appear the forcing there so continue to keep POPs for Sunday below 15 percent. Forecast highs will range from the 60s near the coast to low 70s near the urban corridor with mid 70s over our western zones across Chester and Berks Counties.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period will be focused mainly on the mid to upper level ridge that approaches and builds overhead through the period.
At the surface, broad high pressure over New England on Sunday night will expand southwest and become elongated into the Appalachian region. The high will sink south of the region on Monday night before moving offshore late Tuesday into Tuesday night. During this period, dry conditions are expected with mostly sunny skies during the day and mostly clear skies at night. There may also be some patchy fog, more so on Sunday night depending on how quickly skies clear. For now, best chances appear to be north and west of the I-95 corridor.

In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. For Tuesday, winds become more southerly as the high shifts offshore resulting in warmer temps being brought north.
Generally looking at the upper 70s to low 80s for Tuesday. However, with rather light surface winds, this should allow a sea breeze circulation to develop each day, so do anticipate cooler temps closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary: Main focus through the long term is on a cold front which is expected to cross through the region Thursday into Thursday night bringing a chance for thunderstorms. High pressure will return in the wake of the front with another disturbance that approaches by next weekend.

Details:

Wednesday...Upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Wednesday.
Guidance has overall slowed to progression of the pre-frontal trough so Wednesday now appears to remain dry. Increasing clouds late with temperatures above average. Shower chances increase Wednesday night with a chance of thunder as the pre-frontal trough approaches.

Thursday...Guidance remains persistent with the timing of the cold front during the afternoon hours on Thursday. With the location of the mid and upper level trough over the Great Lakes, this keeps the better forcing north and west of the area. However, with enough surface instability aided by diurnal heating, this should support at least scattered thunderstorm develop across the area. This is supported quite well by analog-based guidance. Cold front then moves offshore by Thursday night. Temps should be above average again, depending on timing of the cold front.

Friday and Saturday...The forecast for Friday and Saturday is quite uncertain and depends on how far the front makes it past our area.
At this time, the 12Z/GFS is more aggressive with the progression of the front, bringing in high pressure into the area on Friday and most of Saturday. In comparison, the 12Z ECMWF is much slower with the progression of the front, keeping the front stalled over our area into next weekend with shower chances. For this reason, have used NBM guidance which keeps most of the area within a 20-30% chance of showers/thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of this afternoon...Generally MVFR conditions with some light rain, stratus, and onshore winds this afternoon with the exception being around ACY and TTN where it could stay mainly VFR. Winds generally favoring an easterly direction but remaining very light (around or under 5 knots). Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Rain/showers ending but conditions should be MVFR for the most part (mainly due to cigs) with IFR cigs likely overnight at ACY, MIV, and RDG. Winds light out of the east to northeast at less than 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR to start the day with some improvement occuring from NW to SE in the afternoon. This should bring most sites up to VFR by late day with the possible exceptions being at MIV and ACY where it could stay MVFR. Northeast winds 5-10 knots.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR with clearing skies. Patchy fog is possible late resulting in visibility restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR with mostly clear skies.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Sub-VFR possible especially on Thursday with a chance for thunderstorms.

MARINE
Conditions over the waters will be sub SCA through Sunday with seas mainly around 4 feet. Northeast should gust to around 20 knots Sunday but stay below SCA levels.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are expected.
Fair weather expected through Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.

Rip Currents...

A prolonged period of N to NE winds at 5 to 10 mph through the weekend along with 3 to 4 ft seas will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Sunday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wayman Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:50 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:11 AM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:55 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wayman Wharf, Tuckahoe Creek, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet

Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet

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