Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:19PM Saturday October 19, 2019 3:22 PM EDT (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1246 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
This afternoon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain late.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon. Periods of rain.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Periods of rain early in the evening.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 1246 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build to our east later today and tonight. Low pressure tracks from the eastern carolinas later tonight to offshore of the mid-atlantic coast during Sunday, then it moves out to sea into Monday. A cold front moves through our region late Tuesday, followed by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday. The next cold front should arrive later Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191315
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
915 am edt Sat oct 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build to our east later today and tonight. Low
pressure tracks from the eastern carolinas later tonight to offshore
of the mid-atlantic coast during Sunday, then it moves out to sea
into Monday. A cold front moves through our region late Tuesday,
followed by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday. The next cold
front should arrive later Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Temperatures will continue to slowly increase through the
morning. Therefore, the frost advisory and freeze warning were
allowed to expire at 9 am.

Minimum temperatures early this morning dropped to 32 degrees or
lower for the majority of both sussex and warren counties in new
jersey, thus, the growing season has ended.

This terminates the autumn frost freeze program for these two
counties. Frost advisories or freeze warnings will no longer be
issued for both sussex and warren counties for the remainder of
2019.

Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast with this
update. High pressure centered over central pennsylvania will
pass over new jersey today, and then offshore by the end of the
period. Abundant sunshine on tap for the day. Return flow sets
up this afternoon, and temperatures warm up a bit compared to
Friday. Highs top off in the upper 50s in the southern poconos,
and otherwise in the low to mid 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
High pressure continues to drift offshore tonight. Meanwhile,
tropical storm nester will be over the southeast u.S. This evening,
and will lift towards the carolina coast during the overnight hours.

The significant impacts will remain well to the south of the
forecast area, but rain will begin to lift into southeast maryland
and delaware towards daybreak Sunday.

With increasing clouds and waa, lows tonight will be warmer, in the
low to mid 50s for most of the region, and around 50 in delmarva.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Summary... Rain associated with current tropical storm nestor moves
across much of our area Sunday before ending Sunday night. A cold
front moves through later Tuesday with another cold front arriving
later Friday.

Synoptic setup... Amplified flow aloft with a trough ejecting
into the plains with another trough from the great lakes to the
mid- atlantic Sunday, then ridging builds across the east into
early next week as a significant trough digs across the plains.

This trough shifts eastward through midweek before lifting into
canada with some zonal flow in its wake across the northern
tier. Another trough amplifies into the northern plains late
Wednesday, which then shifts eastward through Friday.

For Sunday... Low pressure (remnants of current tropical storm
nestor) is expected to move northeastward across the eastern
carolinas, exiting off the coast near CAPE hatteras during Sunday.

The low is then forecast to move out to sea during early next week.

Despite the trough aloft weakening some as it slides across our
region Sunday, the track of the surface low and ascent to its north
and northwest side will result in a shield of rain. The highest
rainfall amounts are expected to be across southeastern new jersey
and into southern delaware. However, much of the guidance brings
measurable rain to much of region. Based on this and the latest qpf
forecast from wpc, increased the pops north and westward during the
day Sunday. There will be a period of gusty onshore winds mainly
along the coast Sunday into Sunday night, and while there is some
uncertainty with the magnitude some guidance suggests 40-ish mph
gusts. As of now though, we kept the winds well below advisory
criteria. The conditions should quickly improve during Sunday night
from west to east as the system moves far enough away and the flow
turns more from the north, allowing some drying to work in.

Temperatures were lowered Sunday across much of the area given
onshore flow along with clouds and rain.

For Monday... A sliver of surface high pressure extends southward
across our area. Any lingering breeze along the coast is expected to
subside as the pressure gradient collapses due to high pressure
building in. The return of some sunshine should result in milder
afternoon temperatures.

For Tuesday... A strong area of low pressure is expected to lift from
the upper mississippi valley and the western great lakes Monday and
into western ontario during Tuesday. This feature is anticipated to
pull a cold front through our region late Tuesday. The amplification
of the parent upper-level trough should result in a slower arrival
of the cold front. We continue to mention a chance of showers ahead
of and with the front, however given uncertainty regarding available
instability held off in adding a thunder mention.

For Wednesday and Thursday... High pressure is forecast to build
across the southern states Wednesday, then across our region and off
the coast Thursday. This should have enough of an influence on our
weather and therefore we anticipate dry conditions.

For Friday... The next cold front arrives later during this time
frame, although timing is somewhat uncertain. Given the synoptic
setup that is forecast, there is the potential for a surface low to
develop along the front as it is crossing our area. If this were to
occur, the precipitation would be enhanced across our region. For
now and based on wpc guidance with the front arriving late, kept
some slight chance pops in the gridded forecast.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR skc. Lgt vrb winds this morning, becoming SW less than
10 kt this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. SW winds less than 10 kt become lgt vrb after 00z.

High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday... MVFR ifr conditions probable, especially for phl pne, ilg,
ttn, miv and acy, due to rain and low ceilings. Conditions should
improve toVFR during the night. East winds 5-15 knots becoming
northeast, then north at night. At miv and acy, winds of 15-20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots are possible especially in the afternoon
and evening. Moderate confidence regarding a period of MVFR or lower
conditions, but low confidence on the timing and also wind speeds.

Monday...VFR into the evening, then conditions may lower to MVFR or
ifr during the night with some possible showers especially at abe
and rdg. Northeast to east winds 5-10 knots, becoming southeast at
night. High confidence during the day; low confidence at night.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr conditions spread across the region through the
day with showers, then conditions should quickly improve toVFR
during the night. Moderate to high confidence on conditions below
vfr, but low confidence on the timing of flight category changes.

Southeast to south winds around 10 knots, shifting to northwesterly
at night.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR. Westerly winds of 5-15 knots. Moderate
confidence.

Marine
Sub-small craft advisory conditions on tap for today and tonight. Nw
winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, become around 10 kt this
morning, then become light and variable this afternoon. Winds
tonight become s-se around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

Sunday... East to northeast winds increase with small craft advisory
conditions expected in the afternoon and at night. A period of gale
force wind gusts are possible later Sunday especially south of
little egg inlet, nj where a gale watch has been issued. Low
confidence regarding possible gale force gusts in the lower delaware
bay (around the bay mouth). The seas build significantly especially
across the atlantic coastal waters.

Monday... While wind gusts should drop below 25 knots, seas on our
ocean waters are forecast to remain elevated.

Tuesday... The conditions should be mostly below small craft advisory
criteria during the day, however a wind shift to northwesterly
behind a cold front at night may result in a wind surge with gusts
to around 25 knots.

Wednesday... West or west-northwest wind gusts to around 25 knots
probable before diminishing at night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
anz452>455.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse johnson
aviation... Gorse johnson mps
marine... Gorse johnson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi52 min SE 7 G 9.9 58°F 60°F1018.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi52 min 1019 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi52 min W 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 62°F1018.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi52 min SE 6 G 8
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi52 min SW 5.1 G 8
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi52 min S 8.9 G 11 61°F 63°F1019.5 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi32 min S 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 66°F2 ft1018.4 hPa (-1.4)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi58 min 61°F 62°F1017.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi52 min SW 6 G 8

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi28 minWSW 410.00 miFair65°F41°F42%1018.1 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi26 minE 710.00 miFair62°F43°F50%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr65
G15
NW5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3--5W4
1 day agoW14
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NW6NW65W4CalmNW3W3CalmCalmW55NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.243.42.61.710.60.81.62.73.94.85.35.34.73.92.81.810.70.91.62.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:05 AM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:03 PM EDT     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60-0.5-0.9-1.1-1-0.600.81.21.41.30.80.2-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.7-00.51

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.