Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 7:10 AM EDT (11:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 705 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw this afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Numerous showers early this morning. Isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late in the evening, then becoming E after midnight, becoming se around 5 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt early in the afternoon, becoming nw with gusts up to 40 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft early in the afternoon. A chance of tstms until late afternoon. Showers likely in the late morning and early afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, decreasing to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 705 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Showers with embedded Thunderstorms will track along a frontal boundary through the overnight hours moving offshore early in the day today. A strong cold front will traverse the region Thursday as low pressure rapidly intensifies over coastal new england and will gradually depart into the maritimes on Friday. High pressure will build in for most of the weekend. Another low pressure coming out of the gulf coast states will likely affect the region late Sunday and into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 081051 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 651 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will track along a frontal boundary through the overnight hours moving offshore early in the day today. A strong cold front will traverse the region Thursday as low pressure rapidly intensifies over coastal New England and will gradually depart into the maritimes on Friday. High pressure will build in for most of the weekend. Another low pressure coming out of the Gulf Coast states will likely affect the region late Sunday and into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The line of showers has past through the region and we've seen ground fog develop across the region behind the showers. The airmass is pretty soupy out there for mid April with temps and dewpoints sitting in the low 50s. Expect the light fog to dissipate shortly after the sun rises as we should start to mix and the fog lift as lower dewpoints mix in from aloft and temps warm. Big changes to the forecast were to clear out the showers faster then I had initially had in the public forecast along with adding in mention of patchy fog for the next 1-2 hours.

Previous discussion . Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to track across the region through the overnight hours. The MCS is well developed tracking across western PA this evening and has had a history of producing strong winds. We've also seen a line of discrete cells develop out ahead of the main MCS and several have developed strong updrafts along with indications of large hail aloft. The line of storms will continue to track through the region over the next 3-4 hours with the highest chance for thunderstorms generally across the south and western portion of the forecast area. Across much of northern and central New Jersey the lapse rates are weaker and elevated instability progs are low enough that we'll be looking at more stratiform rain showers with some occasional lightning strikes. Based on observed soundings at IAD and OKX, and forecast sounding from the NAMNest and HRRR we continue to think the severe potential from storms should be large hail rather than winds as the stable layer at the surface has prevented most of the stronger winds from mixing down.

The line of showers should pass through the region by daybreak this morning and we'll see a warm front surge north bringing temps well above April normals into the upper 60s to low 70s across east central PA, south and central NJ and DelMarVa. As temps warm we'll see widespread convective instability develop across the region with the potential for some isolated thunderstorms to develop. The forcing is weak however so any storms that do develop will likely just pulse storms will little forward propagation anticipated.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/. An active day of weather is likely Thursday. Synoptically, a classic evolution as a strong shortwave dives into the Great Lakes. The subtropical and polar jets look to phase just south of our region, with a strong (160 kt+) jet max developing. Just downstream the shortwave, surface low pressure will be tracking out of Canada and into New England. Over the course of the day Thursday, the shortwave will begin to pivot more negative in tilt. Meanwhile, the low pressure will find itself in the divergent left exit region of the strong jet max to our south, and will also feel increasing baroclinic influence as it approaches the Gulf of Maine. The result will be a period of rapid deepening of the low on Thursday as its center jumps towards the Maine coast, with its central pressure dropping below 970mb by Thursday evening.

In terms of sensible weather, two primary and somewhat related concerns for Thursday. A strong cold front associated with the strengthening low will move through during the day, likely from late morning through mid afternoon. Ahead of it, there is potential for convection. This is a conditional threat as there is uncertainty as to destabilization. Trends in guidance with the front are generally faster, which would limit daytime heating and instability and help keep convection more limited and/or elevated. However, if we do develop some surface based instability, severe winds would be a concern given very strong forcing and impressive wind profiles. The second concern on Thursday will be the potential for a period of strong synoptic winds immediately behind the front. We should quickly mix out once the front passes, and low level winds remain particularly elevated for a couple of hours. BUFKIT profiles suggest the potential for a period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, before winds likely weaken a little, at least temporarily, into the evening and overnight hours. Overnight, strong cold advection will be ongoing, but the breezy conditions will keep the lows near or only a little below average, though it will feel colder.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview .

An active pattern is poised to continue over the next several days and likely beyond as persistent troughing over the Great Lakes fuels an active storm track in the East. Definitely a much different type of pattern than we've seen most of the past few months as a steady supply of cold Canadian air gets ushered into the northern US. Combined with a growing supply of very warm, moist air over the Gulf region and a strong subtropical jet, this is a recipe for frequent storminess in the days and potentially couple of weeks ahead. Two synoptic storm systems are likely to impact us this period, one on Thursday and the other early next week, but most of the days this period will feature some weather concerns in one way or another. For this forecast, the bulk of the attention was placed on the Thursday- Friday period, as the weekend appears relatively quiet and the potential storm system early next week is a little too far out to pay much attention especially given concerns in the nearer future.

Dailies .

Friday-Friday night . For Friday, attention will again be on the winds as intense low pressure moves out of the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian maritimes. A tight pressure gradient will be in place, and guidance agrees on deep mixing during the day, likely to near 700mb. Winds at 850mb and above look to be in the 30 to 45 kt range, and much of that is likely to be brought down to the surface in gusts. GFS BUFKIT profiles would support advisory level winds, while the NAM would likely keep us just below. Either way, it will be a windy day and likely on the edge of Wind Advisory thresholds. Boundary layer RH values remain fairly high on Friday, and this will help some surface based instability develop. In the winter months this is the type of day we'd watch for snow squall potential. We're lacking much of a trigger mechanism, but a rain or snow shower is possible Friday especially up north towards the Poconos. Highs on Friday only in the low 50s for most with some 40s to the north as unseasonably cold air is advected in behind Thursday's front. A chilly night is likely as well, but winds should remain elevated enough to prevent a freefall in temperatures and also limit the frost potential.

Saturday-Sunday . A general lull in active weather for the weekend. High pressure moving out of the Midwest will be centered to our south on Saturday then offshore by Sunday. Could have some fire weather concerns on Saturday pending what the fuel moisture looks like as the winds, while much lighter than Friday, will still be a little breezy and RH values drop a little more. A warming trend is likely over the weekend following the Friday cooldown. Depending on the timing of the next system, could have some showers by Sunday afternoon especially to the south, but think most of the day will be dry.

Sunday night-Tuesday . Our next weather system arrives. As mentioned, did not spend too much time on this period given more pressing shorter term concerns. But the general idea looks to be low pressure lifting out of the Gulf Coast region as a trough ejects out of the Plains and ridging builds along the East Coast. With roots in the Gulf of Mexico, this may be a moisture laden system with potential threats of heavy rain and gusty winds, but we'll have several days to watch its evolution.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with periods of IFR in showers with embedded thunderstorms. Prevailing winds will be southwest generally 10 knots or less. High confidence in the wind and the occurrence of showers.

Wednesday . Ceilings should quickly improve from MVFR to VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night-Thursday . Deteriorating conditions expected as VFR prevails initially before becoming widespread MVFR and potentially IFR should develop later Wednesday night. Continued MVFR/IFR into Thursday morning. A band of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will move through from west to east between mid-morning and mid- afternoon. Behind this, improvement to VFR is possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds Wednesday night will become southerly Thursday morning. Winds will shift to southwest then west- northwest as the area of rain moves through. As this happens, speeds will abruptly increase with gusts of 35 to 40 kt possible Thursday afternoon. Low confidence in flight conditions Wednesday night. Moderate confidence for overall trends on Thursday.

Thursday night . Mainly VFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High confidence.

Friday-Friday night . Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible especially towards RDG and ABE during the day Friday. West-northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts as high as 40 kt Friday afternoon. Winds gradually diminishing overnight. High confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night . VFR. West-northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming southwest in the evening then light and variable overnight. High confidence.

MARINE. GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

Today . Weak low pressure is expected to pass off our coast on this morning, pulling the frontal boundary back to the south.

Wind speeds and wave heights are anticipated to remain below the Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Winds northeast shifting to southeast at around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Thursday-Thursday night . Initially sub-SCA conditions. However, a sharp increase in winds is likely during the late morning or early afternoon as winds shift from southwest to northwest with a frontal passage. Gale force winds are anticiapted Thursday afternoon. Overnight, conditions will more likely diminish slightly to SCA levels, though west-northwest winds could still gust to 30 kt and cannot rule out gale conditions. Seas mainly 3 to 5 ft.

Friday . Westerly gales expected. Wind gusts to 40 kt or slightly higher are likely. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Friday night-Saturday . Gradual improvement in conditions expected. Winds should drop below gale force early Friday night, and may drop below SCA levels on Saturday though will still likely be gusting 20 to 25 kt out of the west-northwest. Seas 3 to 5 ft Friday night diminishing to 2 to 3 ft on Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the southern shores of the Raritan Bay, the New Jersey shore, and the Delaware Beaches for the high tide cycle on Wednesday evening.

Astronomical high tides will be running high for the next few days associated with the full moon on April 7. We don't have much onshore flow through the next few days, but given the current astronomical high tides, even weak onshore flow could produce minor coastal flooding. At this point, we are expecting spotty minor flooding for most high tide cycles until we get to Wednesday evening. For the Wednesday evening/night high tide, widespread minor flooding is expected for the Atlantic oceanfront.

On the Delaware Bay and tidal portions of the Delaware River, there could be spotty minor tidal flooding for the next few high tide cycles, but the chance for widespread minor flooding is low.

At this point, tidal flooding is not expected along the northeastern Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ003-004. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Deal Short Term . Deal Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Deal Marine . Deal Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi53 min W 8.9 G 13 58°F 51°F1000.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi59 min WNW 12 G 14 1000.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi53 min W 5.1 G 8 54°F 51°F999.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi53 min SW 15 G 16 56°F 999 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi53 min W 7 G 8.9 58°F 56°F1001.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi59 min NW 12 G 16 59°F 54°F1002.2 hPa
OCSM2 41 mi191 min 2 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi81 min S 14 G 16 53°F 52°F3 ft995.7 hPa (-4.4)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi53 min 56°F 53°F998.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi53 min SW 6 G 7 57°F 54°F1000.2 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi17 minSW 710.00 miLight Rain58°F55°F93%1000.3 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi15 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F56°F100%999.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3NE6SE5SE7S8S7SE8W7W6SW4W4S5SW3S6SW4SW6S74S6S3SW4W9
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1 day agoNW4N8NE9--NE75NE8E76E8SE7SE5S4S3S3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW3SW3
2 days agoS3SW54--66SW5SW7W8SW7W7SW4S5SW5S7S6SW6SW6S6SW4SW3SW3W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:59 AM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:24 PM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:21 PM EDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.40.8-0.4-0.9-0.50.72.33.95.25.65.34.32.91.40-0.7-0.60.423.75.265.9

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:02 AM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:46 AM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:27 PM EDT     -1.91 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.7-2-1.7-0.90.11.11.821.60.9-0-0.9-1.5-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.20.81.72.11.91.30.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.