Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shady Side, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:33PM Friday April 3, 2020 1:26 AM EDT (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 1041 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1041 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will continue to retrograde off the new england coastline as high pressure gradually builds into our area from the west. As a result, gusty winds will continue through Friday before relaxing by Friday evening. Dry conditions continue on Saturday before a weak cold front moves through the region late Sunday. The frontal boundary will then stall to our south before retreating north as a warm front early next week. Small craft advisories are likely to be extended into Friday evening for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shady Side, MD
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location: 38.86, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 030055 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 855 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will loop offshore of the eastern US coast through Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the Midwest over the weekend. A cold front will push through Sunday night, then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. A large and deep area of low pressure will continue retrograde west toward the New England Coast tonight while high pressure remains over the Midwest and Great Lakes. A strong gradient between these systems will continue to bring blustery northwest winds for most areas tonight, but it will not be as windy as today due to less mixing. A strengthening low-level jet may cause winds to approach advisory criteria (greater than 46 mph) along the highest ridges, but still do not feel confident on coverage for any sort of advisory at this time. Elsewhere, northwest winds will gust around 20 to 30 mph (but lighter in the central Shenandoah Valley).

Skies should remain mostly clear through the night, but the winds will help keep temperatures well above the dew points, so only expecting lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most areas. Wind chills will be near or below the freezing mark though. Winds will be lighter over the central Shenandoah Valley. Some frost is possible, but confidence for an advisory is too low at this time due to the stronger gradient keeping at least a light wind for most areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As the low continues its loop southward on Friday, the pressure gradient will remain tight. Gusty winds of at least 20-30 mph are likely through the day. Moisture associated with the low will also begin advecting back toward the area, so expect clouds to increase from northeast to southwest through Friday night (although the far southwestern CWA may remain clear). A few light showers may also approach north central Maryland Friday and Friday night, though most guidance indicates they will be dissipating as they encounter a drier low level airmass. Temperatures should remain fairly steady state with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s.

The low will finally begin to move back out to sea later Friday night into Saturday as upper level blocking breaks down. This will finally allow high pressure to move in from the west and winds to relax. However, some clouds could hang around until Saturday afternoon as linger moisture remains under a subsidence inversion. Clouds will then increase again Saturday night as a weak frontal system approaches from the west. As heights build aloft, temperatures will be a little warmer, with most places in the 60s for highs.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sunday should be mostly dry, with a surface ridge axis overhead for much of the day. However, a weakening cold front will push through the region later Sunday into Sunday evening. This front is likely to be mostly dry, but can't rule out a shower as it pushes through, so will maintain the slight chance POPs for that for western zones, with little to no POPs east of the Blue Ridge. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

By Monday, High pressure will be split to the north and south, with the weak frontal boundary placed somewhere in, or south, of the forecast area. Could see some showers along that boundary Monday afternoon. Not expecting much of a thermal boundary there, but likely more a wind shift. Temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday are a bit tricky to make any exact time estimates on any rainfall that may occur. The region will be in northwesterly flow aloft, with several weak upper-level disturbances moving over/near the forecast area. So, generally throwing in chance POPs into the forecast for both days with highs in the mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The main story through Friday will be gusty northwest winds. Gusts may subside a little tonight (15-25kt), but frequent gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected for Friday. A stratocumulus deck will advect in from the northeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. These clouds will likely be VFR, though there is a low chance of MVFR. High pressure will bring lighter winds by Friday night, as well as maintain VFR conditions into Saturday night.

A weakening cold front will push through Sunday afternoon, with a slight chance for showers west of the Blue Ridge, so MRB could perhaps see a shower with this, but the front should primarily be dry. Then on Monday afternoon/evening, more showers possible across central VA as this weak front gets hung up. However, rain chances remain low, and any CIG/VSBY restrictions would be minimal. So, generally VFR conditions expected Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. Northwesterly winds will remain gusty through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters during this time. Winds may approach Gale-force criteria over the middle portion of the Bay overnight, but for now have limited to 30 kt.

Winds will gradually diminish Friday night into Saturday morning. An SCA is in effect for all of the waters Friday evening, and the middle portion of the Bay/lower Tidal Potomac river overnight. After that time, high pressure will bring lighter winds for the weekend.

No marine hazards are expected on Sunday or Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels continue to decrease under northwest winds and will be near or below astronomical normals by tonight-Friday. Tides may increase rather sharply by Saturday as onshore flow returns. The amount of increase will depend on if there is any excess anomaly left at the mouth of the Bay. Have sided with the less aggressive ESTOFS at this time, though fairly widespread minor flooding is within the realm of possibility this weekend, and moderate flooding at sensitive sites would be the worst-case scenario.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532>534- 537-540>543.

SYNOPSIS . ADS NEAR TERM . BJL/ADS SHORT TERM . ADS LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . BJL/ADS/CJL MARINE . BJL/ADS/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL/ADS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi86 min WNW 19 G 22 55°F 50°F1010.2 hPa (+0.6)23°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 9 mi56 min 54°F 1008.7 hPa
CPVM2 10 mi56 min 54°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi116 min NNW 6 1009 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi50 min NW 16 G 18 54°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi56 min NW 16 G 19 54°F 1008.7 hPa
FSNM2 25 mi68 min W 15 G 21 54°F 1008.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi62 min NW 14 G 17 54°F 52°F1008.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi56 min NNW 5.1 G 8 54°F 48°F1008.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi56 min NW 17 G 21 56°F 53°F1008.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi56 min NW 8 G 14 55°F 55°F1010.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi104 min NNW 25 G 30 1009.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi56 min NW 9.9 G 17 56°F 53°F1009 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi62 min NNW 8.9 G 22 56°F 56°F1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi32 minWNW 1010.00 miFair54°F27°F35%1009.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi41 minNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair52°F32°F47%1009.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi42 minNW 15 G 1910.00 miFair54°F24°F32%1009.8 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD22 mi30 minNW 8 G 1510.00 miFair52°F24°F34%1010.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi41 minWNW 8 G 1610.00 miFair50°F28°F43%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NW9W6W7NW6NW7NW9NW13
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2 days agoN7N7N8CalmN3N3N5N5N7E7NE6E7E11E13E12E12E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:12 AM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:00 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.70.60.40.30.20.10.20.30.50.70.81110.80.60.40.30.20.20.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:50 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.