Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shady Side, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday April 18, 2021 5:44 PM EDT (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:31AMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 442 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon, then becoming nw. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely through the night.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 442 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A broad area of low pressure will migrate from west to east near or south of the middle atlantic through Monday. High pressure will develop to the south Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front which will pass through Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed Tuesday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shady Side, MD
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location: 38.86, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 181920 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 320 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A series of upper-level disturbances will pass over the area through Monday. Low pressure will develop in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and push a strong cold front across the area Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west for the latter part of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Weak high pressure extends across the area this afternoon with a closed low off the New England Coast and a couple shortwave troughs approaching from the Midwest. Lift ahead of the first trough has resulted in gradual expansion of a robust cumulus/stratocumulus field from the west. A few light showers have started popping up beneath these clouds, and expect this to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. Due to the extensive cloud cover and low dew points, don't think there will be enough instability for lightning and have removed thunder from the forecast. However, with the dry subcloud layer, any stronger shower could produce briefly gusty winds (but not too strong).

There may be a relative lull in the showers by late evening as the first trough passes, but a stronger trough will be entering the Tennessee Valley later tonight. Convergence ahead of weak low pressure may allow additional showers to develop, mainly from central Virginia to southern Maryland. Guidance continues to produce a wide range of solutions from more widespread coverage in these areas to completely dry. Therefore, kept a middle of the road solution for PoPs. Depending on clearing and low level moisture (likely due to whether rain falls), there could be some patchy fog late tonight. Lows will be in the 40s to near 50, with some 30s in the mountains.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The weak surface low and most potent part of the upper trough will continue to pass to our south on Monday. Therefore, rain chances will be most persistent south and east of Washington DC. However, as mentioned above, completely dry solutions remain possible. Otherwise, clouds should slowly clear from west to east. Temperatures will rise a bit further into the 60s to near 70.

High pressure will pass over the area Monday night into early Tuesday. Mainly clear skies will prevail, although there could be some high level clouds at times. On Tuesday, low pressure will begin to rapidly develop in the Ohio Valley ahead of the next trough. The daytime should largely be dry with a fair amount of sunshine. Southerly winds will increase and help temperatures reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. The low will move into Pennsylvania Tuesday night. A few showers could develop, especially west of the Blue Ridge, but most of the night should be dry. Temperatures will be mild in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. An upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a low pressure system will pass north of the local area, but the associated cold front will move through the region during the day Wednesday. Regarding the cold front passage, slight differences in timing, moisture, and instability exist. Models have trended slightly drier with the frontal passage. However, still favoring showers along the front, with more organized showers east of the Blue Ridge where instability is maximized, though still limited. Isolated wind damage is the main threat with the cold front passage.

Temperatures plummet once the cold front moves through Wednesday. Depending on how much moisture exists right behind the front, a brief change to snow is possible across the Allegheny Front before the upslope snow showers increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Accumulations are possible along the highest ridges of the Allegheny Front. A lull in precip Thursday before another piece of energy rounds the trough bringing one last round of snow showers Thursday afternoon/evening to the Allegheny Front. This could bring a few rain showers to the rest of the region Thursday afternoon. Will have to monitor the frost/freeze potential Wednesday and Thursday night across the Shenandoah Valley.

The winds increase Wednesday night into Thursday behind the front with the pressure surge and stay gusty out of the northwest into Thursday due to a tightened pressure gradient.

Temperatures rebound close to average Friday as high pressure builds to the south. Remaining seasonable on Saturday as the region of high pressure moves offshore. The next system moves in late Saturday, which could be either a coastal low or the associated cold front. Regardless, rain chances increase late Saturday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR cumulus/stratocumulus will persist into this evening ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. Scattered showers are developing this afternoon and will remain possible into the early evening. Overall, these will be light with little impact but could briefly reduce visibility or result in a wind shift. Did not have enough confidence in direct impacts to put them into the TAFs though. The chance for any thunderstorms seems to be diminished.

Additional showers could occur overnight into early Monday morning, especially at CHO, though probability for ceiling/visibility issues remain low. There may be a slightly higher chance of fog or low ceilings that could affect any of the terminals, though guidance varies widely, and it could depend on if a particular area sees rain, as mid level clouds likely hang tough through the night.

By Monday afternoon, any remaining showers should be well east of the area, with VFR conditions and light winds through Monday night. Southerly winds will increase to around 10-15 kt Tuesday ahead of developing low pressure.

Showers possible with gusty winds Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Strong winds continue out of the northwest behind the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday before subsiding some in the afternoon. Likely VFR conditions Thursday with a few passing showers. The winds increase again Friday out of the northwest before subsiding late Friday afternoon.

MARINE. With a weak surface pressure pattern in place through Monday, winds will remain light and somewhat variable in direction. There's a low chance showers could produce a gusty outflow (probably less than 25 kt) late this afternoon, mainly near the Potomac.

A stronger low pressure system will be approaching from the west on Tuesday. Southerly flow will increase, with SCA conditions becoming possible by late Tuesday.

The winds quickly shift from the south to the northwest Wednesday as the cold front passes. This time frame will need to be monitored for potential Special Marine Warnings for gusty showers along the front. The winds remain strong out of the northwest Wednesday night before relaxing some Thursday afternoon. A SCA is most likely Wednesday night into Thursday, though a Gale Warning cannot be ruled out. SCA conditions become possible again Friday with a northwest flow.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Anomalies up to one foot are gradually spreading northward. Water levels are most likely to reach caution stages for sensitive areas during the high tide cycle Monday morning. However, the risk of minor flooding seems low since the flow is light. There may be a greater risk of minor flooding ahead of a low pressure system early Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ADS NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . ADS LONG TERM . CPB AVIATION . ADS/CPB MARINE . ADS/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ADS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi45 min SE 5.1 G 6 58°F 57°F1011.7 hPa (-0.9)45°F
44063 - Annapolis 7 mi45 min 7.8 G 12 57°F 56°F1012.2 hPa (-0.8)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 9 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 7 62°F 58°F1010.4 hPa
CPVM2 10 mi57 min 60°F 47°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi45 min NNW 7.8 G 7.8 57°F 57°F1012 hPa (-1.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi57 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 1010.5 hPa
FSNM2 25 mi57 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 60°F 1010.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi57 min SW 7 G 9.9 1010.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi63 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 59°F 52°F1010.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi57 min NNW 5.1 G 7
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi57 min W 7 G 8.9 64°F 59°F1011.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi57 min ESE 5.1 G 7 57°F 1010.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi57 min SE 6 G 7 59°F 59°F1010.9 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi57 min ESE 5.1 G 7 62°F 64°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi51 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F43°F53%1011 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi55 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F37°F35%1012.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD22 mi49 minW 910.00 miFair63°F36°F36%1011.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi50 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast63°F36°F37%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW3W4CalmW3CalmCalmNW3NW6N4N4E6SE11SE10SE10SE9SE9
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W7W6W3CalmW4W3W4W4NW7NW8NW7N5N4NW6E8SE7SE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.30.20.30.40.60.70.911.110.90.80.60.50.40.40.40.50.60.60.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:26 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.70.80.80.60.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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