Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayo, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:27PM Saturday March 28, 2020 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:17AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 145 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming e. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the night.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 145 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will remain stalled to the south and west of the waters through tonight. The front will then try to lift north as a warm front early Sunday, followed by a cold front passing from the west late Sunday. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night. A small craft advisory may be required Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayo, MD
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location: 38.87, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 281412 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1012 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A front will stall out near the Appalachians into southern Virginia through tonight. The front will then try to lift north as a warm front early Sunday, before a cold front moves through from the west late Sunday. High pressure will be in control Monday into Tuesday. A low pressure will then approach from the southeast U.S. Tuesday night before departing off the mid- Atlantic coast on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Latest surface analysis suggests that the suface front remains south/west of the forecast area, with a cool/stable east/northeast flow across the region. At 850 mb though the front appears to be across northeast Maryland. The initial round of showers and a few thunderstorms have pushed to the Eastern Shore and into the Atlantic. However, additional showers can be seen developing across northern Maryland, with yet more shower and thunderstorm activity in western Pennslyvania set to advect southeast. It would appear as though most of this activity will be along/northeast of the Potomac River. Have trimmed back PoPs accordingly. The wettest part of the day is behind us, but elevated instability on 12Z LWX RAOB indicates that showers (and even thunderstorms) can develop given synoptic forcing. Will be assessing to see if thunder needs to be reinserted into this afternoon's forecast.

Guidance providing a big range in temperatures today across the warm front. Have sided toward better-performing mesoscale guidance, which warms Virginia (where forecast is dry) by several degrees.

Area will be in the warm sector tonight. Anticipate a small diurnal spread from today's highs to tonight's lows. However, given low dewpoint depressions (dewpoints also in the 50s), believe that patchy fog will be developing overnight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Warm front will be over us early Sunday, with guidance slowing it down and actually keeping it a little longer over our area. Warm front will lift away from us Sunday before a cold front pushes through our area Sunday evening. The cold front will bring showers and perhaps a thunderstorms over our region. Instability will be marginal, with higher values east of the Blue Ridge, but these areas may be in the cold air wedge especially from DC north.

High pressure builds behind the front Sunday night and remains in control through Monday night bringing dry conditions over our region. Gusty winds will also develop on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A low pressure will be moving across the southeastern United States on Tuesday. Clouds will overspread the region once again as high pressure retreats northward a bit, and rain may arrive across southern and western areas by day's end. Rain looks likely across most of the region Tuesday night, but should dwindle on Wednesday as the low pressure heads east out to sea. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday night before a cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday. The front will slow as it crosses the area Thursday night and Friday, but only a few showers look possible with minimal moisture and forcing available. Temperatures through this coming week will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. By early April, this is near to below normal, something we haven't seen much of lately.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Behind this morning's showers/thunderstorms, vsbys (and to a lesser extent ceilings) improved. However, the surface front remains to the southwest of the terminals. Given moist east flow, it is anticipated that low ceilings will return; that trend has already begun. IFR will become more common this afternoon, continuing into this evening. Do not have a high confidence in sub-IFR today, but would not rule it out either. Odds much greater for that occurring tonight as areas of fog develop, in addition to the continuance of lowering CIGs.

Low clouds and fog will continue into Sunday morning. CIGS and VSBY will improve Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front that could bring showers and thunderstorms over the terminals. VFR conditions return behind the front Sunday night and Monday, along with gusty winds (20 to 30 knots) Monday.

Sub-VFR conditions possible by Tuesday night as low pressure passes to the south, but VFR should return later on Wednesday as it moves out to sea.

MARINE. Winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for this afternoon into tonight. SCA may be needed for Sunday as front moves across the area, with light winds Sunday night. Winds will increase on Monday and a SCA will be needed during the day.

SCA gusts possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure passes to the south and then moves out to sea.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . IMR/RCM NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . IMR LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . HTS/IMR/RCM MARINE . IMR/RCM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi69 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 51°F1016.3 hPa (-1.4)55°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi51 min 1014.8 hPa
CPVM2 10 mi51 min 53°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi159 min ESE 5.1 1015 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi51 min ENE 8 G 8.9 1015.5 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi69 min ENE 11 G 12 53°F 1015.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi57 min E 5.1 G 9.9 52°F 51°F1015.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi51 min ESE 8 G 13 53°F 52°F1015.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi51 min ESE 14 G 18 57°F 54°F1014.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 29 mi51 min E 2.9 G 5.1 56°F 54°F1015 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 33 mi57 min SSE 7 G 7 1015.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 38 mi51 min ESE 6 G 8 54°F 53°F1014.8 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi57 min SE 5.1 G 6 55°F 1014 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi75 minESE 310.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1015.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD10 mi84 minESE 310.00 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1015.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi73 minE 310.00 miOvercast55°F52°F92%1016.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi79 minE 610.00 miOvercast57°F53°F88%1016.3 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi84 minN 02.50 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADW

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE7N6N3E9E6SE4S4CalmCalmE4E4SE5S6SE4NE4NE4E5E9E6SE7SE9E3E3
1 day agoS11S12
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S12S11S8S9S7S9S8S8S9SW4S3S4S4CalmSW4NW4NW6NW3NE5N7N9
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2 days agoNE8NE8N7N7N6----N5N4Calm--NW4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW4SW5SW7S8S10S9

Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:20 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:39 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.10.20.40.60.70.910.90.80.70.50.30.20.20.20.40.50.60.70.60.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:29 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.80.90.80.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.3-00.30.40.40.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.