Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grasonville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:02PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:53 PM EDT (01:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 738 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary front will remain near the mid atlantic through Saturday before gradually moving to the south late in the weekend. A cold front will approach early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grasonville, MD
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location: 38.88, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 140025 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 825 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A front over the area will slowly sag southward through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Several waves of low pressure will develop along this boundary and pass south and east of New Jersey through the weekend. High pressure tries to establish itself over the area early in the new week. The old frontal boundary then lifts north as several areas of low pressure develop on it and approach from the south late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Instability continue to diminish with loss of diurnal heating. Showers and thunderstorms continue to taper off and diminish. Therefore, with the flooding threat over, the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.

Otherwise, it will remain mild and humid overnight with lows in the mid 60s far NW and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Winds will be light and variable. Also, areas of fog will develop after midnight, especially in areas that had rains today.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. High pressure will try to move down from the N while the slow moving front and weak low pressure are S of the area. We will hold higher amts of clouds and higher pops for Delmarva and SE PA for Friday. Chc pops will be found for much of NJ and slight chc pops for the srn Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Any tstms across Delmarva may be capable for downpours which may cause more localized flooding. Overall, the extend and degree of the activity should be a step-down from todays levels. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s for most areas, with the higher numbers for nrn/wrn areas where more sun will be found.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. A prolonged period of unsettled weather on tap for most of the long term period.

A frontal boundary remains south of Delmarva, along the Mid- Atlantic, and several waves of low pressure will develop along this boundary going through the weekend. The first low will be east of the Delmarva Peninsula Friday night and drifts out to sea. Best chances for PoPs will be over the far southern zones, with most of the northern areas dry.

Going into the weekend, however, there are differences among the 12Z GFS, the 12Z ECMWF, and the 12Z Canadian. The ECMWF and the Canadian have high pressure building in a bit closer to the area from the north, and this keeps the next wave of low pressure and most of the precip south of the region. The GFS has the high positioned a bit farther north, and as a result, brings precip into the region Saturday night and Sunday. QPF is not minimal, too, as model differences range from almost no QPF for most of the region to as much as an inch of QPF as far north as Philly and central New Jersey. Will blend the NBM and the SuperBlend for PoPs this weekend, and carry slight chance/low chance Saturday, increasing to low end likely on Sunday. But this may change drastically depending on how that high sets up.

The low passes south of Delmarva and southern New Jersey Sunday night, and seems to strengthen offshore on Monday. Although some wrap around precip is possible, will have to see its position, as the difference between onshore flow and westerly flow on Monday will affect temps and sky conditions.

Should then be mostly dry Monday night through Tuesday night, with just a slight chance for PoPs on Wednesday as some weak upper level energy passes through.

Thereafter, the old frontal boundary south of the region begins to lift north, and several more waves of low pressure develop on it. Could have more wet weather for the end of next week.

High temps through the period will generally at or just below normal levels, but low temps will be at or just above normal levels depending on how much moisture there is over the area.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR early then IFR with fog and lower CIGS expected in most areas. The NW sites KRDG/KABE may have only MVFR VSBYS in fog but confid in what category is rather low. Light and variable winds.

Friday . After early morning fog, VFR expected after 12Z/13Z NW and 15Z/16Z SE. Mostly NE to E winds at 5 to 10 knots expected.

Outlook .

Friday night . Sub-VFR conditions possible in fog/stratus. E-NE winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Saturday . Mostly VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible with sub- VFR conditions. E winds 10-15 kt. Low confidence.

Saturday night through Sunday night . An extended period of MVFR or IFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA. E-NE winds around 10 kt. Low confidence.

Monday . Sub-VFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA. W winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Tuesday . Mostly VFR. W-NW winds less than 10 kt. Afternoon sea breezes possible. Low confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions with mostly E to SE winds 5 to 10 knots and 1 to 2 ft seas for the most part tonight and Friday. Scattered showers and tstms into the evening then cloudy with fog overnight. Locally higher winds and seas near tstms.

OUTLOOK .

Friday night . Sub-SCA conditions.

Saturday-Sunday night . Seas will build to 5-7 feet as a tight E-NE gradient develops over the waters. Winds will gust 25-30 kt during this time as well.

Monday . Conditions will gradually lower to sub-SCA during the day.

Tuesday . Sub-SCA conditions.

Rip currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Friday. However, the risk could become locally moderate as a northeast wind of 10 to 15 MPH develops. Breaking waves should be around 2 feet with a medium period southeast to south swell.

With increasing onshore flow on Saturday, the risk for the development of dangerous rip currents increases to moderate by Saturday afternoon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore flow will increase some Friday and especially Saturday and persist through Sunday. Astronomical tides will be increasing into the weekend as well as the new moon occurring early next week. These factors will combine to increase the chance for minor coastal flooding with the Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening high tides. Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with the afternoon and evening high tide on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding to advisory levels is then more likely with the Sunday afternoon and evening high tide, especially from Atlantic City southward including the Delaware Atlantic coast and up Delaware Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . MPS/O'Hara Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . MPS Aviation . MPS/O'Hara Marine . MPS/O'Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi53 min NE 12 G 13 78°F 83°F1017.6 hPa (+0.0)75°F
CPVM2 11 mi65 min 79°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi65 min 79°F 85°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi65 min 79°F 84°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi71 min 76°F 85°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi47 min 80°F 83°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi143 min ENE 1 1016 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi65 min 79°F
FSNM2 28 mi65 min 78°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi65 min 79°F 85°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 34 mi83 min E 12 G 15 1016.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi65 min 80°F 84°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi65 min 80°F 85°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi58 minENE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy0°F0°F%1016.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi63 minNNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1018.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi59 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds79°F77°F94%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3Calm------E4CalmCalmCalmE4CalmN3NE8
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W3NE3NW3NE4NE6NE6E5NE7E6NE3E4
1 day agoS7S6S7S5S3S4SW3SW4SW6W3W4NW3CalmS3W5W8SW7SW6SE7E9
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2 days agoS6--S5SE4SE6--SE6S7SW3S4S7S9S7S7S8S7SE9SE8S10S7S5S6S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland
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Claiborne
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.61.41.31.10.90.90.90.911.11.11.10.90.70.60.50.40.50.711.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:08 AM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.80.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.200.20.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.