Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grasonville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:43PM Saturday December 7, 2019 1:06 AM EST (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1238 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Overnight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Mon night..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 1238 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. A strong area of low pressure will then develop over the mid- mississippi valley and track northeastward toward the eastern great lakes early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grasonville, MD
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location: 38.88, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 070224 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 924 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure across New England this evening will cause a cold front to cross the Middle Atlantic region. A large area of high pressure from the Great Lakes will build across the area this weekend. Once the high moves away early next week, a series of low pressure systems and fronts will affect the area into the middle of the week. More high pressure with cold air arrives for later next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. 930 pm update: Increased hourly temperatures a couple degrees for the next few hours, as models are not accounting for mixing from gusty post-frontal winds muting radiational cooling sufficiently. Otherwise, no changes were required.

630 pm update: Showers are moving steadily through New Jersey at this hour, and have increased PoPs through 8 pm in advance of these. Otherwise, forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion .

Cold front is now progressing through PA as the mid and upper level short wave trough digs closer to the region. A few showers continue to be possible late this afternoon into early this evening. Aside from the Poconos, where some snow may mix with rain, for most of the region if we see any precipitation, it should be all rain.

As the cold front crosses our region this evening, expect an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds and a brief period of breezy conditions behind the front. Much of the guidance shows winds staying relatively light even behind the front, but expect that the guidance is a bit too fast in showing the development of the nocturnal inversion in the higher elevations of NW NJ and the Poconos. Thus gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible in these locations through the evening. Additionally, this is a prime setup for gusty winds on the waters, so coastal locations, and especially locations near the mouth of the Delaware Bay could see wind gusts to 30 mph through the evening.

Will likely see cold air advection for much of the night. Thus, expect lows to be slightly lower than this morning, with lows in the 20s (with the exception of Philly and portions of Delmarva where lows could be right around 30).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. High pressure begins to build in leading to decreasing, but still persistent northwest flow and cold air advection. With the large scale subsidence, should have dry weather and few clouds through the day. Temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 30s and lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Saturday night and Sunday will feature nice weather as large high pressure across the region Sunday morning will move offshore Sunday night. Temperatures will be close to average Sunday afternoon after a cold morning. Highs will reach the low/mid 40s across the north and central areas while upper 40s and low 50s will be across the metro areas and Delmarva.

Low pressure will advance towards the area early next week. A stream of moisture will develop over the area Sunday night and persist through Monday and beyond. Frequent clouds and rains will be found across the region. The rains and poor weather will continue into Tuesday. It will become unseasonably mild, especially Tuesday when highs will be in the 50s north/west and low 60s for Delmarva and south NJ. QPF for the period could be in the 1 to 2 inch range, so the possibility of some localized poor drainage flooding can't be ruled out. Also, if temps do not warm quick enough across the north/west areas Sunday night, a little snow at the onset is possible.

As the system moves away Tuesday night and Wednesday, colder air will arrive from the N/W. P-type could become an issue again with the rains possibly changing to snow before ending. We'll have to watch this with the possibility for some accums across the Poconos and north NJ. (other areas possible too). Temps will drop back through the 40s Wed and 30s Wed night.

The end of next week will feature dry, but cold weather. Highs Thu will be well below normal with 30s regionwide, some moderation possible Fri. Another system may approach for next weekend with more rains/snows possible.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with CIGs dissipating by late evening. Southwest winds will become abruptly northwest by 03z across the area, with speeds of 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR with northwest winds around or below 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Sunday . VFR expected. Increasing clouds Sunday.

Sunday night thru Wednesday . Widespread IFR expected with LIFR also possible at times. Rains, low clouds and fog much of the time. Gusty winds expected, especially near the coast.

MARINE. 930 pm update: Converted the gale warning to a small craft advisory for the northern New Jersey Atlantic waters, as stronger gusts have not materialized this evening. Still expecting a period of stronger gusts for the next few hours, but no longer expecting gale conditions. No other changes were necessary at this time.

Previous discussion .

Gale conditions are expected in the vicinity of Sandy Hook through late this evening, so have issued a gale warning for the coastal waters adjacent to Monmouth County. Otherwise, expect breezy southwesterly winds through early this evening, with SCA conditions expected on the rest of the Atlantic coastal waters. On the Delaware Bay, gusts near 20 kt are expected.

Then this evening, a cold front will bring an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds resulting in SCA conditions on the lower Delaware Bay and most of the Atlantic coastal waters, with gales still possible for the Monmouth County coastal waters.

Winds should diminish quickly near sunrise, and during the day tomorrow, winds and seas should stay below SCA.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday night-Sunday night . Sub-SCA. Fair thru Sunday than rains developing Sun night.

Monday-Wednesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely with Gales possible. Rain and fog much of the time.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431- 450>455.

Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . CMS/Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/Johnson/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi66 min NW 18 G 19 47°F 46°F1022.9 hPa (+2.4)31°F
CPVM2 11 mi54 min 47°F 39°F
44063 - Annapolis 12 mi30 min N 16 G 19 46°F 46°F1023 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi48 min 46°F 1022 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi54 min NNW 15 G 21 1021.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi54 min N 15 G 18 1022.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi36 min N 18 G 18 47°F 1022.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi96 min NNW 6 49°F 1021 hPa39°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi48 min NNW 18 G 21 45°F 1022.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi54 min N 12 G 17 1022.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi48 min NNW 5.1 G 7 49°F 48°F1021.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi48 min N 8 G 14 47°F 44°F1023.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi60 min NW 5.1 G 6 47°F 45°F1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi71 minNNW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast46°F32°F57%1022.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi3.4 hrsWNW 710.00 miOvercast52°F33°F50%1021 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi72 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast47°F32°F56%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4S3CalmS4S4S7S11S11
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2 days agoNW4W4W8W6CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3SW5SW5SW6SW8S6S4W5NW5NW11NW10W6W5SW4W10

Tide / Current Tables for Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland
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Claiborne
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:30 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:50 PM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.70.50.30.1-0-00.10.30.60.911.110.90.70.50.40.30.30.40.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:23 AM EST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:52 PM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:25 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.40.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.60.90.90.80.50.1-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.