Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grasonville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:48PM Saturday August 24, 2019 8:18 PM EDT (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:59PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 737 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will settle north of the waters this weekend. Low pressure off the florida coast will likely move northward offshore of the eastern seaboard early next week. A cold front will approach the waters in the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday night into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grasonville, MD
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location: 38.88, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 242222
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
622 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure located in eastern ontario and southern quebec
this afternoon will continue to build to the south and east. The
air mass should continue to influence our weather into Tuesday.

A cold front is anticipated to approach from the west on
Wednesday and it is expected to pass through our region on
Thursday. A secondary cold front may arrive on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
630 pm update: made a few adjustments based on the latest
guidance to the sky cover and wind forecast, particularly along
and south of i-95. Backed off on winds inland overnight as
diurnal cumulus is quickly dissipating; therefore, am expecting
the boundary layer to stabilize keeping winds mostly calm,
perhaps light and variable, inland. Uncertainty still exists
with regard to how far inland the low clouds will extend Sunday,
but backed off on the inland extent with this slightly during
the day. Also adjusted temp dewpoint grids slightly as well.

Previous discussion... Northeasterly winds Saturday afternoon
gusted over 20 mph close to the coast, and up to 15 mph further
inland. As mixing ends around sunset, and as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes just a bit, wind speeds are expected
to settle in the 5 to 10 mph range through the overnight hours.

However, the onshore flow is expected to continue as high
pressure centered over eastern canada continues its slow
eastward migration. Models suggest light precipitation will
eventually start falling over the near- coastal locations of the
cwa, as the lower portions of the atmosphere become saturated,
but this could be more of an indication of low clouds,
especially toward morning. If precipitation does indeed develop,
the coastal sections are the most susceptible, with lower
chances further and further inland. Will introduce low chc pops
closer to the coast, then slight chc pops toward the
philadelphia metro area. Adjustments may be needed as the event
unfolds. With air moving in from the ocean, temperatures during
the overnight hours are expected to dip into the low 50s in the
north, and in the low 60s south where a cloud cover is expected
to inhibit radiational cooling.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
High pressure centered over nova scotia will continue its slow
eastward trek even as low pressure (with some tropical
influence), rides northeast along, then away from, the east
coast along a nearly stationary front just to our south.

Depending on the relative strength of these two systems, the
onshore flow may veer more to the east versus northeast. Wind
speeds will pick up again too, with gusts in the 15 to 20 mph
range possible, and even stronger toward the coast. Models
continue to indicate light precipitation (drizzle?) possible
into the delaware valley, but this may be too aggressive. Will
keep the higher pops closer to the coast, lower pops further
inland. High temperatures on Sunday are not expected to emerge
from the 70s, and any precipitation may make it cooler.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
The axis of a high pressure ridge is forecast to remain to the
lee of the appalachians for Monday and Tuesday. The pattern will
maintain a northeast to east surface wind in our region. The
onshore flow creates a bit of uncertainty in determining the
amount of cloud cover and the potential for some light rain or
drizzle. Regardless, most of the period from Sunday night
through Tuesday should be precipitation-free and there will
likely be at least partial clearing at times. The early autumn
temperature preview is forecast to continue with daytime highs
in the 70s and lower 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s and
lower 60s.

The surface ridge is anticipated to lose its influence over our
weather on Tuesday night and Wednesday as a cold front
approaches from the west. The front is expected to arrive in our
region on Wednesday night before passing off the coast on
Thursday. We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Wednesday and Wednesday night with some clearing in the
forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will likely return to more
typical readings for late august.

A mid level trough is expected to begin settling over the great
lakes and the northeastern states for the late week period into
the holiday weekend. A secondary cold front may arrive around
Saturday. However, moisture is forecast to be rather limited so
we are anticipating fair weather for Thursday, Friday and
Saturday.

Aviation 22z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight..MainlyVFR. Lowering clouds expected near the shore.

MVFR conditions or lower possible (acy miv) if light rain
and or drizzle forms toward morning. NE to E winds 5 to 10
knots.

Sunday...VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the inland taf
sites, but ifr conditions possible at miv and acy with low
clouds and possible light rain drizzle. E winds gusting up to 20
kt near the coast, and 10 to 15 kt inland.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected.

Northeast wind 6 to 12 knots.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind 5
to 10 knots.

Tuesday night... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

South to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday... MainlyVFR. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
Winds and seas touched SCA conditions at a few buoys this
afternoon. While winds may improve slightly overnight, a
persistent onshore flow should keep seas in the 5 foot range
along the coast. Then as winds pick up again on Sunday, seas and
winds are expected in the SCA range, both on the ocean and bay.

A SCA has therefore been hoisted for the ocean starting 6pm
this evening, and for the bay starting 6 am Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... A small craft advisory is in effect
for a northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will likely build to 5 to 8
feet.

Monday night... Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to
25 knots. Waves on our ocean waters are expected to be 5 to 7
feet.

Tuesday... Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots. Waves on our ocean waters are expected to be 4 to 6 feet.

Tuesday night... Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Waves on our
ocean waters are expected to be 4 to 5 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

northeasterly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range and seas between
4 and 5 feet will result in a moderate risk of rip currents on
Sunday.

This elevated rip current risk (either moderate or at times
high) is expected to persist until at least Tuesday as a
prolonged period of onshore flow and elevated seas looks likely.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged period of northeast to east flow will continue
through at least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch,
combined with increasing astronomical tides due to an
approaching new moon on Thursday, will likely lead to increasing
coastal water levels. Minor coastal flooding is possible
starting Sunday night over delaware bay and portions of the nj
shore. The better chances for minor coastal flooding are on
Monday and Tuesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 6 pm edt Monday for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Miketta staarmann
short term... Miketta staarmann
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino miketta staarmann
marine... Iovino miketta
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi78 min NNW 13 G 15 75°F 80°F1021.9 hPa (+0.0)55°F
CPVM2 11 mi48 min 76°F 58°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi48 min 74°F 1020.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi54 min ENE 11 G 13 74°F 82°F1021.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 73°F 80°F1021.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi42 min ESE 12 G 16 75°F 1022 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi108 min ENE 2.9 79°F 1021 hPa57°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi48 min NE 8 G 8.9 74°F 1021.6 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi54 min NNE 8 G 8.9 74°F 1021.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi54 min ENE 7 G 8.9 74°F 82°F1021.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 34 mi48 min E 11 G 15 74°F 1021.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi48 min ENE 9.9 G 13 75°F 82°F1020.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi54 min ENE 2.9 G 6 75°F 83°F1021.6 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi108 min E 1 75°F 1021 hPa58°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi54 min ENE 12 G 16 73°F 80°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi58 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast75°F57°F54%1021.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi88 minENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F59°F61%1022.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi84 minN 910.00 miA Few Clouds79°F59°F50%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmN6N6N6NE7N7N6NE5NE5N5NE4N9NE10NE5N5NW9N7N6NE7NW6N6NE3E5
1 day agoS4N9
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2 days agoS6W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland
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Claiborne
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:50 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.61.41.21.10.90.80.80.91.11.21.21.110.80.60.40.40.50.711.31.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:00 PM EDT     0.26 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.200.20.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.