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Marine Weather and Tides Oakton, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:15AM

Sunset 4:48PM

Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:18 AM EST (08:18 UTC)

Moonrise 4:36PM

Moonset 6:30AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakton, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 110215 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push east of the Mid Atlantic overnight allowing cold air to rush across the area. Canadian high pressure will then build across the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Another, stronger low pressure system will then develop in the Gulf of Mexico and push northward across the eastern United States Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 9pm, the cold front is located along the Atlantic coast, pushing offshore. Temperatures across the area still too warm to support snow for most except for the highest of ridge tops, but believe this will change rapidly based on the intensity of cold advection. Radar character suggests at least a mix possible across northern Maryland/Eastern West Virginia. In addition, forcing mechanisms aloft (right rear quad of upper jet) will be pushing in behind the front, supporting dynamic cooling as well.

As the cold air pushes in, expecting a changeover from rain to snow across much of the area as we head into late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Snow will start earliest at the higher elevations including the Blue Ridge, so snow will start there around 9-10 PM or so, with much of the rest of the area changing between midnight and 5 AM from west to east. This remains unchanged from the previous forecast.

Still some indication of dry air intrusion at the low-mid levels behind the cold front (current radar depicting some of these patches), but thinking the abundant forcing should be plenty to overcome this. Generally between I-81 and I-95, expecting 1-2 inches of accumulation, primarily on grassy surfaces. Along the I-95 corridor itself, expecting less than an inch. Along the Blue Ridge, could see areas of 3-5+ inches though, where the longest period of snow is, and the best combination of forcing mechanisms. Wet roads and warm road temperatures will likely keep accumulations off of roads. However, more intense banding is possible where the best forcing lines up, so could see a quick inch on roads for those that end up directly under any heavier band. Some of the hi-res guidance hints at strong banding over southern Maryland as well, so will need to monitor guidance trends, though surface temps exceeding 60 over southern Maryland Tuesday afternoon cast uncertainty in accumulation and impacts.

Precip moves out quickly Wednesday morning, and sunshine will return. Combined with warm ground and temps in the 30s to low 40s, much of the snow should end up melting quickly by the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Arctic high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes and Canada, then dominate Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry and cold conditions are expected during this time. Lows may reach the teens Wednesday night in spots, and highs Thursday likely stay in the 30s across much of the region.

The next system organizing near the Gulf Coast will start to bring warm advection northward Thursday night. Models are gradually coming to a better consensus with precipitation approaching the I-64 corridor by around daybreak Friday, at which time a warm nose aloft coupled with cold surface temperatures could result in freezing rain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A shortwave moving through the broad trough over the Midwest will kick off a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico Friday. This low is forecast to track up through the southeast. There is some slight disagreements on the exact track of the surface low between the 12Z ECMWF and GFS. The GFS keeps the low slightly further east, tracking just along the East Coast, while the ECMWF keeps the low further inland. What both models do agree on is a cold air damming signature resulting in at or near freezing temperatures for locations near and west of the Blue Ridge.

The exact track will determine for how long cold air lingers. Overall, models have been trending towards a warmer solution as southerly flow ahead of the precip shield scours out some of the cold air prior to precip onset. However, do think there will be some light freezing rain for locations west of the Blue Ridge for late Friday, continuing overnight, before changing to all rain by Saturday morning. Elsewhere, temperatures at the surface will be above freezing thus expecting a plain rain event throughout Saturday late afternoon. As the surface low shifts further northeastward and starts to occlude, additional precip due to upsloping is possible Sunday for locations mainly along and west of the Allegheny Front.

High pressure will build briefly back over our region Sunday into early Monday before a warm front lifts northward through our area Monday afternoon into Tuesday, resulting in our next chance at precipitation.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Temperatures will fall tonight as the cold front pushes through the region. Rain will change to snow at all terminals by Wednesday morning. MRB will be the first to change over, at roughly 03z, with IAD/CHO changing over between 04z-06z, and DCA/BWI/MTN changing over by 09z or so. These are rough time periods, but most guidance is in good agreement on timing at this point. Not expecting a lot of snow (<1 inch for all except MRB, who may get 1-2 inches).

VFR returns by midday Wednesday and persists through Thursday night, though a risk of FZRA exists down at CHO late Thursday night as the next system approaches.

Areas of rain and/or freezing rain will bring MVFR or IFR conditions to the terminals on Friday. Primary threat for freezing rain will be at MRB, with areas east most likely to stay all rain. Rain again on Saturday could lead to sub-VFR conditions at times.

MARINE. Northwest flow picked up behind the cold front that crossed the waters. With good mixing/strong cold advection, 20 kt gusts being realized. Have added the entire Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay/Tidal Potomac River to a Small Craft Advisory overnight, and then taper it back Wed morning as building high pressure helps the gradient relax and allow winds to drop below SCA levels. However, a reinforcing shot of cold air Wednesday night could reinvigorate the winds briefly.

As a surface low tracks through our region, gusty winds are expected over the waters Friday night into Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will be possible during this period.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ003. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ004>006-503-505-507. VA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ507- 508. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ025>031-040-501. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ505-506. WV . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ050>053-055. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>532- 535-536-538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-537- 541-542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ534-543.

SYNOPSIS . HTS/CJL NEAR TERM . HTS/CJL SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . HTS/CJL/JMG MARINE . HTS/CJL/JMG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	15 mi	49 min	NNW 8.9 G 15	37°F	44°F		1024.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	32 mi	109 min	NNW 7	36°F			1022 hPa	35°F
NCDV2	41 mi	55 min	NW 7 G 9.9	35°F	49°F		1023.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	44 mi	49 min		36°F			1023.3 hPa
44063 - Annapolis	46 mi	25 min	NNW 12 G 14	36°F	46°F		1024.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	46 mi	79 min	WNW 19 G 23	35°F	46°F		1024.6 hPa (+2.6)	35°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	47 mi	55 min	NW 5.1 G 8.9	37°F	46°F		1023.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	47 mi	49 min	WNW 9.9 G 12	37°F			1023.7 hPa
CPVM2	49 mi	55 min		37°F

Wind History for Washington, DC

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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S11

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NW7 G10

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1 day ago

W1 G7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA	10 mi	27 min	NW 9	0.75 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	32°F	28°F	88%	1024.8 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA	12 mi	83 min	NNW 8	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	36°F	31°F	85%	1023.7 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA	14 mi	27 min	NNW 20 G 25	6.00 mi	Light Snow and Breezy	35°F	32°F	89%	1024.5 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA	16 mi	23 min	NNW 14 G 21	7.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	30°F	92%	1025.6 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA	20 mi	44 min	NNW 12 G 15	1.50 mi	Overcast	32°F	32°F	100%	1025.1 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD	21 mi	23 min	NW 6	4.00 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	30°F	28°F	92%	1026 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	21 mi	43 min	NW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	28°F	81%	1024.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	23 mi	83 min	NNW 13	9.00 mi	Light Snow	34°F	31°F	91%	1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAD

Wind History from IAD (wind in knots)

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NW14 G19

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1 day ago

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SE3

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S5

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S13 G19

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S18 G25

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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