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Marine Weather and Tides Oakton, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:46AM

Sunset 5:58PM

Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:37 PM EST (17:37 UTC)

Moonrise 3:01PM

Moonset 5:20AM

Illumination 95%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakton, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 241448 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 948 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually build in from the southwest today. A weak cold front will cross the area later this afternoon, with high pressure building back in Thursday. Another low pressure system may impact the region toward the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

A noticeable low level stable layer was present on the 12Z LWX sounding. Broken clouds were in place this morning but these clouds are breaking up and mostly clear skies are expected over the next few hours. As skies clear, increased mixing will lead to the eroding of the low level stable layer which will allow temperatures to rapidly jump up as warm air aloft is mixed to the surface.

..Previous Discussion

Calm to light and variable winds with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s across the region with mainly clear skies due to high pressure early this morning.

High pressure will build over the southeastern states today. Warmer air will be drawn into the area by gusty southwest winds, with most locations in the 50s to mid 60s. Low pressure will be crossing the Great Lakes, dragging a weak cold front toward the area by this evening. Clouds will increase, and rain showers will approach from the northwest. Most of the showers should fizzle out crossing the Appalachians due to limited moisture and forcing. Besides the Alleghenies, northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia will have the best chance for a brief shower or sprinkle during the early evening. Precipitation may end as some snow showers west of the Allegheny Front, but accumulations should be minimal.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Thursday will feature clearing skies and northwest winds ushering in cooler air as high pressure builds over the Mississippi Valley. However, temperatures will remain near or slightly above seasonable averages. Clouds will increase Thursday night ahead of a shortwave trough, but dry weather is expected.

A more active and unsettled pattern returns Friday through the weekend. An area of surface high pressure will reside to our north during the day Friday before gradually moving offshore Friday night. Multiple areas of low pressure will advance towards the region Friday afternoon and evening. This leads to the possibility of another CAD set up with a wintry mix at the onset of precip over the western highlands of our CWA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. On the synoptic-scale, the features controlling the weather will be as follows. A subtropical ridge remains fixed over the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico into early next week while a split in the jets is noted to its north and west. Mid-level heights remain on the higher end over the weekend, generally around 570-dm.

With a strong surface ridge moving off the coast into the Atlantic, return flow will commence ushering in southeasterly winds on Saturday morning before turning more westerly by the evening as a cold front sweeps through. Unsettled conditions are likely before the frontal passage with snow mixing in with rain during the morning hours. This would mainly impact the higher terrain. Continued warm advection will eventually shift precipitation to all rain later in the morning. Meager amounts are forecast, generally maximizing in the tenth to quarter inch range.

As the flow aloft turns more west-southwesterly in nature, the mentioned cold front gradually stalls south of the region on Sunday. Ample moisture advection occurring within the confluent flow across the Ozarks into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys will bring precipitation back to the area for Sunday. The culprit is a series of perturbations in the flow, each providing an impetus for periods of rainfall. While the air mass is quite mild in nature, cannot rule out some snowflakes across the higher peaks. Sunday will likely be the wetter of the two weekend days.

The northern stream really begins to amplify on Monday with height falls crossing the Mid-Atlantic region by the evening. The 00Z GFS solutions remains the most aggressive with a deep surface low tracking through New England. This would bring a much more potent frontal passage on Monday evening. It does appear the stalled baroclinic zone over the weekend shifts farther south which moves the moisture gradient back toward southern Virginia. Thus, aside from some morning rainfall, the remainder of the day appears to be dry in the wake of the cold front. After a mild weekend and early start to the week, temperatures are expected to drop off by 5 to 10 degrees bringing conditions closer to climatology by Tuesday. Ensemble solutions differ beyond this period, but the upper pattern becomes quasi-zonal. This will maintain chances for precipitation with near average temperatures.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

VFR conditions are expected today. South/southwest wind gusts to 25 kts are possible this afternoon. A weak front this evening will shift winds to the northwest, but other than a brief sprinkle, dry conditions are expected. VFR continues Thursday with high pressure.

With a chance for rainfall during much of the weekend, some periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely, especially on Sunday. Winds are not particularly strong, but multiple directional shifts are possible.

MARINE. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kt are expected to return out of the south ahead of a cold front this afternoon, and a few gusts to near gale forecast can't completely be ruled out over the upper tidal Potomac River and upper portion of the Bay.

A weak front this evening will shift winds to the northwest. A SCA may be needed for portions of the waters through Thursday morning before high pressure builds in and winds relax.

SCA conditions are not expected for the weekend but increasing northwesterly wind behind a cold front could bring enhanced marine winds on Monday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ531>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530- 535-536.

SYNOPSIS . KLW NEAR TERM . KLW/JMG SHORT TERM . KLW LONG TERM . BRO AVIATION . BRO/KLW/JMG MARINE . BRO/KLW

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	15 mi	50 min	S 9.9 G 12	53°F	38°F		1018.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	32 mi	68 min	SW 11	51°F			1018 hPa	37°F
NCDV2	41 mi	56 min	E 4.1 G 6	46°F	38°F		1019 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	44 mi	50 min		50°F			1018.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	46 mi	38 min	SSE 21 G 23	43°F	37°F		1019.2 hPa (-1.3)	32°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	47 mi	50 min	S 7 G 12	50°F	38°F		1017.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	47 mi	50 min	SSE 16 G 16	49°F			1017.6 hPa
FSNM2	47 mi	50 min	SSE 12 G 15	51°F			1017.3 hPa
CPVM2	49 mi	50 min		43°F				34°F

Wind History for Washington, DC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA	10 mi	46 min	SSW 11	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	57°F	30°F	36%	1017.8 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA	12 mi	42 min	S 8	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	29°F	34%	1018.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA	14 mi	46 min	S 13	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	55°F	31°F	40%	1018.6 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA	16 mi	42 min	SSW 10	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	33°F	38%	1018.8 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA	20 mi	43 min	S 13 G 21	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	32°F	36%	1017.6 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD	21 mi	42 min	S 13 G 17	10.00 mi	Fair	58°F	27°F	31%	1019.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	21 mi	43 min	S 4 G 14	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	22°F	26%	1017.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	23 mi	42 min	SSW 14	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	30°F	36%	1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAD

Wind History from IAD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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