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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 333 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Wednesday...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered flurries.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.

ANZ500 333 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually builds toward the waters through tonight. Additional small craft advisories might be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. High pressure returns briefly Saturday before another front arrives Sunday into early next week.

FXUS61 KLWX 281848 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 148 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will bring cold, blustery conditions, and additional rounds of snow showers through this evening. High pressure builds over the region Wednesday before sliding offshore Thursday allowing temperatures to warm. The next chance for precipitation arrives with a front and area of low pressure later this week.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Snow shower activity is beginning to ramp up again in Garrett County and surrounding areas as the base of the strong mid/upper trough swings through the area. Additional snow amounts of 1-2 inches are possible through late afternoon, with a coating of snow possible in other adjacent areas. Travel could be disrupted/delayed at times along the I-68 corridor and adjacent roadways through this evening.
Heavy bursts of snow will quickly reduce visibility on affected roadways. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered light snow showers will continue in areas north of I-66 and east of I-95 through late afternoon. However, any flurry activity will be light as there is a lot of dry air at the surface, with dew point depressions at 20-25 degrees. Expect sustained northwest winds between 10 to 20 mph, with gusts between 30 to 35 mph. Mountain locations will see sustained winds between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph especially at elevations above 2500 feet.

Temperatures have reached their peak in the mid to upper 30s east of the Blue Ridge, with low 40s in Central VA, with near to below freezing temps elsewhere. Bitter wind chills in the mid to upper 20s east of the Blue Ridge and values in the single digits to a few degrees below zero over the mountains.

Very cold air arrives tonight as lows drop to the teens to low 20s for most. Those above 2500 feet will see lows in the single digits.
While winds gradually decrease overnight, they will remain elevated and contribute to cold wind chills in the single digits to low teens. Be sure to bundle up and protect yourself, pets, plants, and pipes from the cold!

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure begins to build into the region Wednesday, then slides offshore into the western Atlantic Thursday. Dry conditions expected as temps slowly warm through late week. Afternoon highs reach the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday, and upper 40s to low 50s Thursday. A reinforcing cold front crosses the area Wednesday afternoon, and that could produce some increase in winds east of the Blue Ridge.
Lows Wednesday night drop to the 20s, with mostly 30s for Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As an area of low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes, precipitation (mostly rain) will spread across the area. Generally speaking light amounts are expected (<0.25 QPF).
There could be a brief mix of snow and sleet at the onset in the cooler pockets of the Alleghenies. Otherwise. rain is expected.

Brief high pressure moves in Saturday before the next system moves through Sunday into Monday bringing renewed chances of rain.

Friday through Sunday, SW flow will bring above average temperatures to the region, especially during the overnights where lows will be 5- 10 degrees above average.

Thereafter, a trough will move through with NW UL flow prevailing bringing temperatures back to seasonable levels.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. NW winds gusting to 30KT continue through this evening, then winds quickly diminish after sunrise. Some flurries/very light snow showers are possible at BWI, MTN, MRB, and IAD through the late afternoon. Given these conditions are expected to last 10-15 minutes, they will be added to the TAFs via TEMPO groups as radar trends dictate.

Dry conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds become south-southwest on Wednesday and could gust 15-20KT at times in the afternoon. Winds become west Wednesday night, then back to southerly Thursday.

MVFR conditions Friday into Friday night with light rain bringing reduced VSBYs and lower CIGs. Winds around 10 knots Thursday and Thursday night. Winds increasing south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Friday and Friday night.

MARINE
Hazardous marine conditions expected through tonight across the waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect as occasional gusts to gale force (35KT) are possible through this evening. Winds decrease Wednesday morning, but could increase again Wednesday afternoon as winds become southwesterly. Additional SCAs may be needed late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Southerly channeling is possible Thursday afternoon and evening, which could necessitate additional SCAs.

SCAs will be possible Friday and Friday night with southwest winds at 10 to 20 knots. Winds are expected to remain below SCA level Saturday. Winds could approach SCA levels Sunday amidst NW/NNW flow.

CLIMATE
The coldest air of the season is set to arrive tonight. This will result in near-record lows at IAD and MRB for Wednesday morning (November 29).

Below is a list of daily record lows for November 28-29

Climate Site Nov 28 Nov 29 Washington-National (DCA) 15F (1930) 14F (1930)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 19F (1996) 17F (1967)
Baltimore (BWI) 15F (1951) 13F (1955)
Martinsburg (MRB) 12F (1938) 6F (1930)
Annapolis (NAK)* 17F (1930) 13F (1930)
Hagerstown (HGR)* 7F (1938) 1F (1930)
Charlottesville (CHO)* 13F (1930) 12F (1930)



LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ001.
VA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ501.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ535-536- 538-542.

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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:33 AM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:00 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:23 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:12 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:28 AM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:55 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:07 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet

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