Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenbriar, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday.

- 2) Fire weather concerns return early next week as winds gust in the wake of a cold front.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday.

Hot and dry conditions continue this afternoon and into tomorrow. Record high temperatures have already been broken at BWI with additional broken records possible across our climate sites. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon with only those in the Alleghenies staying in the 70s. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures. Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid heat- related illnesses.

Hot conditions continue Thursday with high temperatures similar to today. Precipitation chances increase as a cold front approaches the area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.10" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives.

A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 12z model runs are currently well aligned on a Saturday night into Sunday timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid-Atlantic. After several days of near- record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread rainfall is likely to accompany this front; thunderstorm chances also return at this time. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather concerns return early next week as winds gust in the wake of a cold front.

Behind a strong cold front late in the weekend, much drier conditions and gusty northwest winds overspread the region.
While precipitation is likely with the frontal passage Saturday night, it would take appreciable rainfall to diminish the dry conditions across the area. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots across the area as minimum RHs fall into the 20s. If appreciable rainfall does not occur this weekend, additional fire weather issues may emerge on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions continue through Saturday as primarily dry conditions are expected across the terminals. An isolated rain shower is possible Thursday night into Friday morning, although chances remain low at this time. Southwest winds today and Thursday shift to west and then northwest Friday. Winds gust 15 to 25 knots Thursday before diminishing Friday.

South winds on Saturday shift to northwest on Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Winds gust up to 15 knots on Saturday before increasing to 20 knots on Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during heavy precipitation Saturday night into Sunday as the front moves through the region.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8PM tonight as winds gust up to 20 knots. Wind diminish tonight and remain below SCA criteria through Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters Thursday night into Friday.

SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots.
Some thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area.

FIRE WEATHER
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire weather SPSs will likely be needed Thursday, with coordination from local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Local showers and thunderstorms which have occurred across portions of northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia may provide a bit of reprieve in those areas.

Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions.
Currently, looks to be a higher chance of an SPS as sustained winds remain below Red Flag Warning criteria.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front.

CLIMATE
Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April.

April 15 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941) 65F (2023)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)

April 16 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 92F (2002) 65F (2017)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)

April 17 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002) 65F (2002)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002) 59F (2024)
Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002) 66F (1896)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002) 66F (1976)
Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002) 60F (1941)
Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976) 65F (1976)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002) 64F (2002)

All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA) 95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915

All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA) 70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>534-539>541-543.