Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM   Moonset 12:09 PM

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FXUS63 KGLD 012024 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 224 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms may develop in northwest Kansas late this afternoon, south of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25. An isolated supercell is possible, mainly between 4-8 PM MDT, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

- More widespread thunderstorms will develop north of I-70 in northwest KS and southwest NE this evening. A few severe storms capable of producing large to very large hail are possible, mainly between 8pm-3am MDT. Storms will rapidly exit the region (into south-central and southeast NE), thereafter.

- Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over portions of northeast CO and northwest KS Friday afternoon.
Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds are possible, mainly late Fri aft/eve, when storms may increase in coverage and track SE toward southwestern and south-central KS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Most of the area remains cloudy and cool this afternoon, with some clearing noted on satellite across southern and western portions. A warm front was surging northward across southwest Kansas, and at 19z was roughly along a Garden City to Jetmore line. Meanwhile, a cold front was moving out of the Colorado Front Range in response to an upper level shortwave trough.

Not much has changed from previous thinking. The warm front to the south has a chance of reaching southern Logan and Gove counties by later this afternoon, which would potentially put them in the warm sector which is very unstable. Latest RAP analysis shows up to 3000 j/kg in that area with bulk shear values of up to 60 kts. In fact, latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show initiation occurring by 21-23z around the Lake Scott area.
Any discrete supercell in that location would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.
Those storms seem to fade by 02-03z, and attention turns to the northwest where more widespread convection will be getting underway in response to the upper dynamics and surface cold front. While storms may initially be surface based, expecting mostly elevated storms this evening across much of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. MUCAPE values will be around 1500-2500 j/kg and shear values around 60 kts. So elevated supercells will certainly be possible, capable of producing large to very large hail and perhaps a few isolated damaging wind gusts. This risk will move east through the late evening hours and spill into the overnight hours in far eastern areas like Norton and Graham counties, finally exiting to the east by 07-09z. There will also be a risk of excessive rainfall in the northeast part of the area, particularly from McCook to Oberlin and Norton, where mean rainfall amounts are around 1 inch and 90th-95th percentile rainfall amounts are in the 1 to 2 inch range. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s in Colorado to the middle 40s in north central Kansas.

Thursday will be breezy in the morning, then diminishing winds, mostly sunny and mild in the afternoon with highs in the 60s. A weak shortwave trough comes out of Colorado in the afternoon and evening hours bringing a chance for scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through the evening and overnight, with best chances in northeast Colorado. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The pattern does not change much on Friday. Another shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies in the afternoon, a bit stronger than the one on Thursday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms with the associated surface cold front.
Showers and storms will be likely by Friday night as the front moves through the area. Surface based instability will be rather limited, generally under 1000 j/kg is forecast ahead of the front, but deep layer shear values will be 40-50 kts. Those parameters may be sufficient for a few severe storms capable of producing hail up to quarter size and gust winds. Instability rapidly decreases after about 03z as the front races southeast, probably ending the severe threat. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Friday night ranging from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the middle 40s in north central Kansas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

The extended forecast begins with the Tri-State area under southwest flow on Sunday. A close upper low will be over Northern California, and sliding to the southeast through the day. There is a 20-40% chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning across portions of the Tri-State area. Thunderstorm chances (20- 40%) will continue across the area heading into the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday, southwest flow persists over the area with a tightening pressure gradient, in advance of the upper trough. Models are bringing the trough through the Tri-State area during the day on Monday, with a closed low taking a sharp turn to the north, into the Dakotas. A warm front will be draped across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska, with warm air coming up into the area. Expected high temperatures will range from the upper 60s over portions of northeastern Colorado, to the mid to upper 70s for areas south of Interstate 70. A few thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, mainly for locations along and north of I-70.

Westerly to southwesterly flow sets up over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected through this timeframe. High temperatures each day will range from the upper 60s to mid-70s each day. Lows will range from the upper 30s to low 40s in eastern Colorado, to the mid-40s for the easternmost portions of the CWA

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR ceilings likely to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon, though a brief improvement to VFR possible at KGLD in mid afternoon. Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop with an upper level disturbance.
Both terminals likely to be impacted by lower ceilings and rain. There is also a slight risk for hail with any stronger thunderstorm. Convection expected to end around 06-07z, but low ceilings persisting through the overnight. A return to VFR expected at both terminals early Thursday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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