Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russell Springs, KS

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Large scale mid/upper level pattern continues to feature northwest flow from the northern Rockies and into the Central High Plains, with subsidence over the tri-state region in wake of the departing shortwave earlier this morning. Surface high pressure is in place behind the associated cold front and while there are some breezy winds (occasional gusts to 25 mph) due to daytime mixing winds will tend to decrease through sunset. Daytime RGB satellite products shows the regions that received snow accumulations (1"+) from the Palmer Divide across Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado and then southwest Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas. This region will feature the potential for better radiational conditions and traditional colder spots in valleys may drop closer to the single digits overnight than teens like a larger part of the region.

The development of broad lee troughing later tonight-Tuesday continues to support increasing west-southwest flow and WAA into the tri-state region. Highs should reach the 50s, though they may be depressed a little more in regions of snow cover. This region that received snow may also have mitigated or delayed responses in finer fuels until snow melts Tuesday factoring into locations that are at risk for fire weather conditions. As of now conditions still appear marginal for critical fire weather with lowered potential Tuesday (see Fire Weather Section for details).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 116 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

Starting the long term period on Thursday, a lingering surface high from a cold front will be in place across most of the area with light and variable winds in place. Cloud cover is forecast to increase as the day goes on as a trough develops across the western CONUS. If clouds can move in quicker then higher temperatures may still be around 5 degrees to warm with most of the area struggling to get above the freezing mark. Thursday night into Friday morning another reinforcing blast of cold air is forecast to move into the area along with an increase in winds with a tight pressure gradient. Light snow may start to develop due to the low lift and with this air mass forecast to have 850mb temperatures of -14 to -20C the dendritic growth zone is forecast to be very low where any little subtle surface disturbance will have the capability of producing light snow or flurries.

The potential for snow is forecast to continue Friday through Saturday evening as the above mentioned trough ejects across the area. At this time light accumulating snow is forecast from lift from the trough and the continued upslope flow collocated with the shallow dendritic growth level. There continues to be some ensemble guidance that suggests probabilities for more impactful snow but currently am a little skeptical of that as GEFS Mean Spread and spaghetti models suggests a more southern path for the system which is similar to what the ECMWF-AI is suggesting.
The ECMWF-AI has been doing a respectable job of handling synoptic patterns so far this winter. Do continue to think that there is the potential for minor impacts for locales along and south of the Interstate. The WSSI-P does show around a 5-10% chance for moderate impacts for this same area as well. The 12Z EFI does show a shift of tails across southern portions of the forecast area so still can not rule out some more impactful winter hazards to occur as well and will be something to continue to monitor. If the current breezy winds during the day Friday do coincide with the ongoing falling snow then there is a 20% chance of blowing snow resulting in visibilities below 1 mile as the snow is falling since due to the arctic air mass in place leading to a fluffier snow with higher snow ratios. If winds were to be a little stronger around 20 knots sustained then the threat would increase to around 25-30%. Any threat for snow is forecast to end as we head into the new work week as a northwest flow pattern reestablishes itself.

Cold temperatures may be the biggest story of the extended period.
Breezy sustained winds around 20 mph through the day Friday along with this very cold air mass is forecast to keep high temperatures at least in the teens along with wind chills during the daytime hours to struggle to get out of the single digits. There is a 25% chance of air temperatures to fall below zero Saturday and Sunday mornings. Winds are still forecast to be a little breezy which brings the concern for wind chills to fall as low as -20 in spots across the area currently. Cloud cover is still forecast to be ongoing Saturday morning which may help the area from plummeting even colder than forecast. The big question will be Sunday morning as drier air moves in aloft. Current forecast currently has winds turning to the west-southwest which climatologically does favor helping keep temperatures a little warmer. The biggest questions will be how quickly will this turn occur and will winds be strong enough to help keep temperatures from falling.
Irregardless there is a strong enough signal for below zero temperatures and wind chills which combined with the potential for snow that impacts to livestock is possible along with slick roads leading to at least some impacts to travel.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 915 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KGLD and KMCK.
Southwesterly winds will also prevail through Tuesday evening, likely gusting around 20 kts during the midday and afternoon.
Around 23-01Z, a cold front will be sweeping through, fairly quickly causing winds to shift to be northerly and gust around 20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 253 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Drier/warm flow and increased mixing should result in daytime highs in the 50s and Tds dropping as low as the singled digits to teens (lowest Tds in the west), though temps and mixing may be complicated over areas with snow pack in the west/southwest, along with, initially wetter fuels. If snow melts early enough finer one hour fuels may still have enough time to respond to falling RH values in those areas Tuesday, but in general the greatest concern will be in areas that did not receive snow accumulations earlier this morning.
Western locations outside of the areas of snow pack are likely to see RH values fall to around 15 percent raising at least some potential for critical fire weather conditions if winds were to be strong enough over a long enough duration.

Broader lee troughing results in weaker surface gradient over our region, so daytime winds will be dependent on mixing heights and max flow aloft. West-southwest flow aloft does increase in in the 850MB layer to the 20-30kt range, though the LLJ is not uniform across the region. As locations reach peak mixing soundings generally show the winds at the top of the mix layer around 20 mph, with only periodic gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Coverage and duration of these gusts may limit impacts and only brief/localized areas may touch on critical fire weather criteria.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.