Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 11:52 PM   Moonset 7:50 AM

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FXUS63 KGLD 270728 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 128 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region Saturday afternoon and evening. All hazards will be possible.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the day Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A closed upper low continues to lift to the northeast this afternoon, bringing scattered showers to the region through the day.
Showers appear to have moved out of most of the eastern tiers of counties. However, additional showers are on the doorstep of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) counties. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue to be possible through the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s across the region. A few isolated 30s may be possible across portions of eastern Colorado.

Heading into Saturday, the Tri-State area comes under southwest flow, with a closed upper low over the Four Corners region. Through the day, the low will move east, across southeastern Colorado and into northwestern Kansas. Portions of the area will have a boundary draped southwest to northeast across central Kansas. Another boundary will be coming in from the south. CAMS have been showing the potential for thunderstorm development over the area Saturday afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with all hazards expected. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather over the area. CAMS are showing storms developing over our area tomorrow afternoon and move across the area. After yesterday's thunderstorms, portions of the area may need to be monitored for possibly hydrology issues.

Heading into Sunday, the closed low will continue to lift to the northeast, into central Nebraska. Precipitation is expected to taper off southwest to northeast through the day. Expect highs to be in the 50s and 60s in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 127 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

At the start of the long term period, upper troughing across the northwest CONUS places the area under west-southwesterly flow aloft.
Down at the surface, a front will push through the area during the Tuesday morning hours. The subsequent upper low mid-week digs a bit more than the prior low pressure system, with flow aloft backing to become more southwesterly. As the trough/low pressure system progress eastward, another front sweeps through the area, bringing cooler temperatures with forecast 850 mb temperatures Friday morning around/slightly below 0C up to around 2-4C. The mid-week system will also bring a return of chances for precipitation, generally around 30% but up to 50% for northwest portions Wednesday evening-Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be possible off and on throughout the period; details at this range leave uncertainty in severe storm potential, but based off latest ensembles/guidance, a return of active weather is possible Wednesday on following the brief reprieve.

Regarding temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday are anticipated to be above normal with highs generally in the 70s and lows from the upper 30s to near 50. Temperatures then slightly below normal are forecast for Thursday, with highs in the mid-upper 50s to mid-upper 60s and overnight lows in the middle 30s to low 40s. Temperatures warm again to near normal by Friday and above normal Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KGLD: VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the overnight hours. Winds will continue to be ~5-10 kts out of the north through sunrise. Winds shift to the northeast tomorrow increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts possible and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR during the morning through the early evening at least(~14-00Z) as another storm system moves in after 18Z. It is possible the stratus could stick around even further or recede north depending on the location of the warm front during the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms are possible during the mid afternoon to evening within the vicinity of the terminal.

At KMCK: VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the overnight hours. Northwest winds will gradually shift to the north/northeast tomorrow morning remaining at 5-10 kts.
Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR during the morning through the early evening at least(~15-00Z) as another storm system moves in after 18Z. After sunrise, winds will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts possible. After ~20Z, showers and storms are possible at least within the vicinity of the terminal. Thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to evening within the vicinity of the terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity tomorrow may result in reductions to visibility and wind shifts at both terminals.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

With the rainfall received over the region in the past 24 hours, and what is expected from showers and storms today and this weekend, we will be monitoring those areas already prone from recent rains. With some locales receiving 1-2" already and the potential for another localized 1-2" in spots already hit, hydro concerns could crop up concerning localized flooding.

There are currently no Flood products issued/in effect.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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