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FXUS63 KGLD 231126 CCA AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Goodland KS 526 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Current Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows a large area of stratus and some fog across the area with some localized locations falling to one quarter mile. Dense Fog Advisory was considered but given how difficult it has been for locales to maintain one quarter mile visibility opted to hold off and go the SPS route for now. The cold front is just now entering Washington and Phillips counties in NE Colorado, which as the front sweeps through should shunt all of the fog and stratus out of the area. Wind gusts up to 35 knots is most likely with the front given what has occurred thus far in in Wyoming and northern Colorado and is supportive from guidance as well. The caveat for any potential hazardous weather would be if showers/storms can form along the front, which is possible as it is moving into a relatively moist environment with the front acting as additional lift. If convection can occur then some localized wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible given the flow aloft, confidence in this occurring is very low however.

As for Saturday, winds will be breezy out of the NW at 20-25 mph with some gusts up to 35 knots especially for the northern counties due to the closer proximity to the developing surface low. Elevated to near critical fire weather looks to be a concern across along and south of a Yuma to Graham county line where wind gusts of 20-30 mph are forecast. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast to be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area. Into tonight skies will remain mostly clear with the exception of some scattered mid clouds south of I-70. The air mass post frontal is expected to be dry as dew points fall into the mid to upper 30s, under mainly clear skies and lighter winds around 6 knots I do have concerns in radiational cooling being strong enough for overnight lows falling even further than is currently forecasted. I did lower temperatures close to the 5th percentile NBM but with westerly component winds may mitigate how cool it actually does become.

Sunday, the upper level low is up over the northern Plains with ridging looking to redevelop over the Rockies. Temperatures look to be slightly warmer than today along with weaker winds around 5-10 mph across the entire area. Monday ridging does look to become more prominent with the return of above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be southerly around 10-15 mph but not currently seeing any concerns for fire weather at this time.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

At the start of the extended forecast period, model guidance begins with some discrepancy as the GFS shows the axis of an upper air ridge over the CWA on Tuesday morning while the ECMWF shows the CWA with a northwesterly flow being underneath the front part of and upper air ridge at this time. These different upper air pattern solutions pretty much stay the in place throughout the rest of Tuesday with the exception of having the ridge tilt slightly positive as an upper air trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
On Wednesday, models show the general upper air pattern progressing eastward a bit through the day with the GFS still being ahead of the ECMWF though the ridge axis in the ECMWF makes it way over the CWA by the evening hours. For Thursday, the trough-ridge upper air pattern continues its eastward placing the CWA underneath the back part of the ridge by the evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, the GFS gives the CWA a southwesterly flow aloft being in the area between the ridge to the east and the trough to the west with a low starting to cut off in the trough base late Saturday. The ECMWF solution as an alternative shows the CWA still underneath the rear portion of the ridge throughout Friday with a trough moving over the western CONUS on Saturday that also has a low cutting off in the base starting in the overnight hours.

At the surface, the CWA expects to see southerly winds throughout the forecast period that may get breezy on Thursday through Saturday with winds gusting up to around 25 kts. Models show surface troughs setting up each day in eastern CO allowing for this southerly flow with a tighter pressure gradient on the last three days compared to the first two days. There may be a chance for elevated fire weather conditions particularly in the CO counties on these last three days as well due to these winds along with minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens, so will monitor this going forward.
Precipitation chances look to be minimal during the long term period being underneath the ridge for most of the period though the GFS hints at a slight chance for precipitation on Friday and Saturday mostly east of the CO border as the western upper air trough moves closer. Some uncertainty with this as the ECMWF does not agree here, so opting to keep low PoPs at this time.

Daytime highs for the Tri-State Area during the long term period look to be in the middle to upper 80s on Tuesday followed by highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s Wednesday through Friday. Saturday's daytime highs expect to be in the lower to upper 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday nights range between the lower and upper 50s with overnight lows on Thursday and Friday being in the lower 50s to lower 60s range. The Tri-State Area sees overnight lows return to the 50s on Saturday night.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Cold front is pushing this pesky fog/stratus out of the area. VFR conditions should become prevalent across the entire area around mid morning, if not sooner. Winds behind the front look to be breezy to gusty up to 35 knots through the morning, with the stronger winds at KMCK. LLWS is present with this frontal passage and should continue through mid morning before diurnal mixing occurs.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

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