Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russell Springs, KS

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An ongoing cluster of storms across SW Nebraska continues as of 10pm MT a very gradual SSE turn has been seen over the past 1-2 hours which aligns with the mean wind so thinking is that portions of Red Willow, Hitchcock, Decatur and Norton counties have the relative better potential at strong to perhaps marginally severe winds. Outflow has been consistently ahead of the cluster which appears to be affecting its intensity as wind gusts around 50 mph has been its peak; very high values of KDP are also seen in the strongest reflectivity cores which suggests to me that locally torrential rainfall or accumulating hail may be the relative greatest hazard. Based on current speeds the cluster of storms should be out of the forecast area around 07-08Z. After this round of rain moves out of the area some fog or stratus may become a concern around sunrise mainly along and south of Interstate 70, dense fog can't be ruled out especially across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Should fog develop it should be fully dissipated around mid morning.

The main focus for the day Friday will be another risk for severe weather. Similar to today, forcing is a little iffy for the area but enough subtle disturbances off the Rockies as vort maxes rotate around a surface high across the the SW CONUS looks to be enough for storm development as a moist airmass remains in place. Guidance suggests that some discrete cells may try to form east of Highway 25 which would support hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts of 55-65 mph.
A more robust wave during the late afternoon and the evening is forecast to develop storms across the Palmer Divide with discrete cells initially before growing upscale into more of a cluster due to 0-6 shear of 20-25 knots. Do have some concern for a supercell tornado threat as storms merge together. After mergers have completed think the main threat will turn into a wind threat. Some guidance does suggest some additional redevelopment but confidence is low in that at this time as it may come down to additional boundaries and additional mesoscale features.
Think that the peak of the severe threat should be over around 06Z but some lingering severe threat may continue especially if redevelopment occurs. Similar to the potential for Thursday, if outflow surges out ahead of any storms then some wall of dust potential may present itself, confidence is a bit lower as 0-10cm soil moisture across portions of east central Colorado has increased so thinking is that chance is around 10%. Am seeing another signal for fog/status development into Saturday morning but may depend on how convection plays out so will leave that out of the forecast for now.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Over the weekend, a blocking high looks to push in closer from the Four Corners region. The Goodland CWA looks to be on the northeastern edge of the high, so we can still expect to see some shortwave systems impacting the area, allowing us to see some isolated, daily storms. This continues until Monday evening when a large trough is expected to enter from the Pacific northwest and push the high back south. This looks to be our next good chance at storms. As this trough pushes farther east, there will be multiple waves of divergence that will promote storms development next week. All that to say, expect hot temperatures over the weekend and a fairly active weather pattern next week.

Speaking of the heat, Saturday is looking to warm into the upper 90s, potentially being our first 100 degree day of the year. These temperatures look to return Tuesday, too.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 955 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings confined to cirrus at/above 18,000 ft AGL.
S to SSE winds at 8-14 knots will generally prevail overnight, though.. winds may shift to the NW (still light, ~10-15 knots)
in the wake of a modest outflow boundary late this evening and become variable for a few hours early Friday morning. Winds will back to the SE and increase to ~13-18 knots during the late morning and early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible late Friday aft-eve, however.. guidance suggests that thunderstorms will be confined well north of the Goodland terminal (similar to today).

MCK: Ongoing thunderstorms in southwest Nebraska will likely affect the McCook terminal ~04-06Z this evening. A similar potential for thunderstorms is anticipated late Friday evening..
near the end of the 06Z TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings confined to cirrus at/above 18,000 ft AGL. S to SSE winds at 10-15 knots will persist through Friday morning.. then back to the SSE-SE and increase to 13-18 knots during the late morning and persist through the afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any thunderstorms this evening and Friday evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.